If you’ve played NBA DFS for any length of time, you’ve probably found out the hard way that rostering a player who gets into foul trouble can derail your night in a hurry. In this article, I want to take some time to look at fouls in greater detail to hopefully give you an idea of who to avoid and target in which matchups. There are several really cool resources to use, so let’s get right into it.
First of all, some players are unlikely to get into foul trouble, but that’s because they aren’t likely to make many plays on defense. There are many other players who generate a lot of value from blocks, steals, or both. In the wrong matchup, these defensive stat attempts may be more likely to be called fouls.
TeamRankings.com has a cool tool called “Defensive Plays Per Foul”. Here are the leaders – these are the players who have more blocks/steals than fouls:
And here are the players who have had more fouls than blocks/steals:
I think there are a couple of interesting names here. Draymond Green is averaging over a block and a steal per game, but also right around three and a half fouls per game. In the wrong matchup, with the wrong referee, or by trying to be a tad overaggressive one night, his defensive mindset could result in foul trouble. The same can be said for Giannis Antetokounmpo, who averages 2.3 combined defensive plays per game, but also just a shade under four fouls per game.
The other part of this is the opponent. NBA Savant has collected stats which show the players who have drawn the most fouls over the course of the season so far. There are several obvious names, but also one or two surprises:
In NBA DFS, we love the value play – the second-round rookie who has come out of the woodwork to earn the start at SG tonight. In other words, the exact type of person who WILL NOT get the benefit of the doubt from the refs when he’s guarding James Harden that night.
But enough negativity — how about the matchups to attack? NBA Miner has a tool called “Nasty Stats” and one of the things it tracks is “Blocks Against”. At the moment, the player who is leading the league in this stat is doing so with a mile between first and second place:
The final thing to consider is, of course, the people who are actually calling the fouls: the refs. On Fantasy Labs, you can look at the Plus/Minus for each crew or even break it down using other filters. For example, here are a few crews that have been really bad for visiting teams:
Referee crews rotate frequently, so you may find yourself looking at game where this particular combination of referees has not worked together before. In that case, you can look up stats on individual refs here.
The most aggressive defenders are often the ones who can find themselves in foul trouble. But by using some of the tools we have available, you can at least make a better prediction about when those plays are going to be blocks/steals and when they are going to be fouls.
