Well, it looks like the new-look Golden State Warriors won’t be going 82-0 this season. It’s great to have basketball back in our lives; let’s break down tonight’s 10-game slate.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook put up video game numbers when Kevin Durant was out last season (per our NBA On/Off tool):
Despite having an average DraftKings salary of $11,725 in the eight games without Durant last year, Westbrook still exceeded salary-based expectations by 3.1 points per game (per our Plus/Minus metric) and scored an average of 55.7 points. He’s expensive tonight at $11,500 on DK and $12,000 on FanDuel, but there’s a reason he has projected ceilings of 77.4 and 70.9 points. For reference, Isaiah Thomas has the second-highest projected ceiling among PGs tonight at 49.1 on FD — a whopping difference of 21.8 points. The only issue with Westbrook is that he’s playing the 76ers: The Thunder are currently nine-point favorites, and the 76ers have absolutely no one on the roster who even dreams of slowing down Westbrook. Because of the blowout factor and high price, it’s understandable to have your Westbrook exposure more in tournaments than cash games.
Values
Sophomore point guard D’Angelo Russell sits at $6,500 on FD tonight and has a slate-high Bargain Rating of 98 percent and Projected Plus/Minus of +6.6. He will face off against the Houston Rockets in a game that has the highest Vegas total on the board at 222.5. With Rockets head coach Mike D’Antoni in town, they should push the ball a ton, which boosts the fantasy potential for players on both sides of this matchup. Russell posted a 23.5 usage rate last season in his rookie campaign, but that number is likely to increase this year: We currently have him projected for 27.6 usage in tonight’s matchup. He’s simply too cheap on FD and is a great cash-game option there.
New Brooklyn PG Jeremy Lin was a guy we discussed on the NBA Preview podcast: He put up huge numbers in the preseason and should run the show for a Nets team that lost 65.48 percent of its Weighted Usage as a team over the offseason — easily the highest number in the NBA. He faces a Boston team that projects to have a good defense but could be weak against PGs: His opponent, Isaiah Thomas, posted a poor -1.89 Defensive Real Plus/Minus mark last season — a mark that ranked 49th out of 71 available PGs. Like Russell on FD, Lin is just too cheap on DK: He has a $6,000 price tag and +5.05 Projected Plus/Minus.
Leverage Plays
Westbrook is in a tier of his own: We talked about his ceiling above, and he has FantasyLabs projected ownership on FD of 13 to 16 percent, the highest mark of all PGs. The next tier of guys, however, includes players like Thomas, Kemba Walker, and Eric Bledsoe, who have high ceilings yet lower projected ownership marks: They’re all projected to be owned in five to eight percent of lineups. Of those guys, Thomas has the highest FD ceiling (49.1 points) and Opponent Plus/Minus (+8.47). The Celtics also boast the second-highest implied team total of the night at 112.25. These guys are all interesting pivots down from Westbrook and up from the value plays listed above, but Thomas has the slight edge given the matchup.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Tonight is the first regular season game in which we get a glimpse of how D’Antoni is going to use James Harden in his up-tempo offense. It’s been reported that Harden will be the de facto point guard, so even though he doesn’t project to have higher usage — his projected usage tonight of 31.1 percent is right in line with last year’s mark of 32.2 percent — he should have more opportunity to rack up points via assists and generally just more possessions. He will go up against a Lakers team that ranked dead last in defense last season and will start a lot of young players. There should be no surprise that he has the highest projected ceiling (68.3 FD points) and Projected Plus/Minus (+5.37) on the slate. One last note: He has dual-eligibility on DK as a PG/SG.
A couple weeks ago, the Bucks traded away Michael Carter-Williams, further cementing their hope that Giannis Antetokounmpo can indeed be their primary ball-handler and offensive creator of the future. Last season, in the 28 games MCW was out, Giannis averaged 41.2 DK points and exceeded salary-based expectations by an average of 2.1 points per game. Of SGs tonight, Giannis posted the second-highest fantasy points per minute (1.0) and is projected to see 35.4 minutes against the Hornets. This isn’t an ideal matchup — Charlotte boasted a top-10 defense last season and can throw Michael Kidd-Gilchrist at him — but Giannis is the guy for the Bucks sans MCW and Khris Middleton. He provides a safe floor if you choose to pay up at SG.
Values
On the other side of that matchup, Nicolas Batum sits at only $6,200 on FD, where he holds an 86 Bargain Rating and boasts a slate-high Projected Plus/Minus of +5.37 currently. The Hornets lost notable Courtney Lee in free agency, which means that even with the return of MKG to the lineup Batum’s minutes are very safe. It was a small sample (six games), but last season when Batum and MKG played together Batum saw no drop in production. In fact, he actually played better: In those six games, he exceeded salary-based expectations on DK by an average of 5.2 points per game. The Bucks will be without their best defender in Middleton this season; Batum has a very safe floor at that salary.
On DK, it might be worth taking a shot on Pelicans rookie Buddy Hield, who should start at SG in the absence of now-Rocket Eric Gordon and injured Tyreke Evans. Hield posted high usage rates at Oklahoma and is projected to use 23.8 percent of his possessions tonight in 25.9 projected minutes. At $3,800 on DK — where he has a 93 percent Bargain Rating and slate-high +4.65 Projected Plus/Minus — taking a shot in GPPs on the rook isn’t a bad idea. The Pelicans are implied to score 104.25 points against a Nuggets team without starting SG Gary Harris.
Leverage Play
Harden and sophomore stud Devin Booker lead the SG group tonight with FD projected ownership of nine to 12 percent. Two guys who sit at only five to eight percent and at an awkward price point — they’re in between Batum and Harden — are DeMar DeRozan and Victor Oladipo. The latter is especially intriguing, as DFS players may elect to avoid stacking the Thunder, and if Westbrook sans Durant is highly-owned that would naturally decrease the ownership of Dipo. It’s tough to determine his role in this offense, but they’ve been desperate for extra playmaking on the wing for years and that’s accentuated even more by Durant’s departure. At $7,400 and $7,500 on FD, Dipo and DeRozan are interesting tournament pivots tonight.
Small Forward
Studs
Last night boasted several stud SFs; tonight, it’s a little more hairy. Paul George leads all SFs with a projected FD floor 6.8 points higher than that of any other player. He’s expensive — his $9,500 salary is quite a bit higher than that of the next-priced guy in Danilo Gallinari ($7,100) — but he should be low-owned given the 10-game slate and Westbrook/Harden options: He has a FD projected ownership of five to eight percent. He’s a better bargain on DK at $8,700 and has a solid +2.67 Opponent Plus/Minus tonight going up against a new-look Mavericks team. The Pacers are currently implied for 105.75 points and George should be involved in quite a bit of that.
Values
With Nuggets wing Gary Harris ruled out tonight, Will Barton will get the start; he has dual-eligibility on DK of SG/SF. He should be fairly popular: At just $4,600 on DK, he has an 86 percent Bargain Rating, a slate-high Projected Plus/Minus of +6.25, and a tasty Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.73. He will get the pleasure of introducing rookie Buddy Hield to the NBA. Per our NBA On/Off tool, in the six games without Harris last season, Barton led the Nuggets with 30.9 DK points per game and a +5.6 Plus/Minus average.
I feel dirty already, but Harrison Barnes might be too cheap on FD at $4,800. He has a 99 percent Bargain Rating and boasts a +5.47 Projected Plus/Minus, which trails only Aaron Gordon‘s mark of +5.75 among SFs in this slate. I’m not going to get into the debate of whether Barnes is good or deserved a max contract, but there’s no denying that Dallas invested a lot into him and will likely use him accordingly. He posted a low 14.9 percent usage rate on the stacked Warriors last season, but we have him projected for 20.8 percent usage tonight in 33.3 projected minutes. At that salary, he has to score only 18.93 points to hit value; that seems reasonable.
Leverage Plays
I already mentioned Aaron Gordon’s slate-high Projected Plus/Minus above, and he’s definitely worth looking at in tournaments. He’s an elite talent and could take a step this upcoming season. Another guy who could be an interesting pivot away down from George and up from the value guys listed above is Andrew Wiggins, who currently sits at $6,500 on DK and $6,600 on FD. This matchup isn’t great by any means: The Timberwolves are currently implied to score only 98.75 points against a Grizzlies squad that (with healthy players) should be much better on defense than its 19th-ranked finish last year. Still, only Trevor Ariza is projected to play more minutes and only George is projected to have higher usage. At low ownership, the talented Wiggins is worth a look.
Power Forward
Studs
Ah, another year to get tilted about Anthony Davis starts and subsequent first-quarter injuries. But if there were a time to roster Davis wouldn’t it be the first game of the season? — theoretically before he gets slightly banged up? Davis is dually eligible on DK at PF/C and boasts a nice Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.14 going against a Nuggets team that ranked 24th in defense last year. If he matches up against Nikola Jokic, that could be a bit difficult — Jokic posted the sixth-highest DRPM among Cs last season (3.61) — but Brow has the talent to beat any matchup. I can understand if you’ve made a pact with yourself never to roster Davis in cash, but given his high DK projected ceiling of 68.5 points you can’t ignore him in tournaments.
OK, I’m cheating a little bit here, but I’ll include DeMarcus Cousins, who is a C on FD but has dual-eligibility on DK. Among DK PFs, he boasts the highest projected ceiling (73.8) and usage rate (36.12 percent). With Rajon Rondo out of town, Cousins should have as many possessions as he wants. It might be tougher for him to get the ball, but, per our NBA On/Off tool, Cousins was just fine without Rondo last season: In five games without him, Boogie scored an average of 51.7 DK points and out-performed expectations by an average of 5.6 points per game. Ty Lawson isn’t exactly an upgrade in the starting lineup, but the point is that Boogie has shown that he can produce regardless of the ‘talent’ surrounding him.
Values
Serge Ibaka was traded to the Orlando Magic over the offseason and will now be a part of a confusing frontcourt rotation with Nikola Vucevic and Bismack Biyombo. That will be a concern throughout this season, but for at least tonight — Biyombo is suspended for tonight’s opener — Ibaka should play a full complement of minutes. And the biggest factor here is his odd price on FD: He has a low $4,800 price tag, which gives him a Projected Plus/Minus of +9.57 — the highest mark of any player at any position tonight. As such, he has FD projected ownership of 13 to 16 percent.
Speaking of Jokic above: He’s definitely way more talented than his $6,300 FD price tag indicates. We have him with a projected FD ceiling of 46.7 points and a Projected Plus/Minus of +6.78 points. He also boasts an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.31 and will face a Pelicans team that had the third-worst defense in the league last season. Given the frontcourt jam in Denver — Jusuf Nurkic is back starting at center — he doesn’t have a high projected minute total (28.6), at least relative to some of the other PF options. However, has hasn’t need a lot of minutes to produce in the past: He has the second-highest fantasy points per minute (1.1) among PFs tonight.
Leverage Plays
Julius Randle currently holds the third-highest projected ceiling among FD-eligible PFs, yet he has projected ownership of only five to eight percent. The public seems to be down on him — and that’s fair, given his poor 13.92 PER last season — but he’s still projected to start and play solid minutes (29.5) in the highest-total game of the evening. He’s a very inefficient player, as highlighted by his embarrassing .482 true shooting (TS%) mark last year. However, at $6,300 on FD, he’s worth a shot in tournaments, given the probable high ownership of his teammate Russell. Honestly, this game could have so many possessions that efficiency may matter very little for most players.
Center
Studs
If we’re all being honest, I think we’ve all been waiting excitedly for NBA DFS just so we can roster Karl-Anthony Towns again. Tonight, he is $9,200 on DK and $8,800 on FD and will face a Grizzlies team that has a poor Opponent Plus/Minus against him (+4.47 on FD) but will have a healthy Marc Gasol back. Still, we know KAT has the talent to put up huge games: He has the third-highest projected ceiling on FD at 57.8 and owns the highest Upside mark (47 percent) of any center who played at least half the season. We’re projected him to play 34 minutes tonight to begin his breakout, superstar sophomore campaign.
Almost all players who play basketball left the Miami Heat this offseason. Fortunately, they were able to retain talented center Hassan Whiteside, who is a really interesting player. He has a floor on FD that is 16.1 points lower than Cousins’, yet his ceiling is nearly identical (67.4 versus 67.7). At $8,700, he is projected to outscore his salary-based expectations by 6.04 points, and he gets a really nice matchup against the Magic, who owned a poor +4.47 Opponent Plus/Minus against Cs last season. That could be misleading if Ibaka plays against him, but for now our NBA Matchups tool has him slated against Vucevic and his poor -0.2 DRPM. Whiteside is projected for 32.8 minutes. He posted a slate-high .629 true-shooting percentage last year.
Values
Because of how many viable centers there are, no player has FD projected ownership of higher than five to eight percent. That’s very intriguing, especially with guys clearly mispriced like Rockets center Clint Capela. He will start for a new-look team that lost Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones in the offseason. His minutes may still stay fairly low — we have him currently at 24.1 tonight — but given the high total of this game that’s still a ton of opportunity for a guy shockingly only $4,200 on FD. As you’d expect, he has a Projected FD Plus/Minus of +8.6. He’s a pretty easy cash-game option tonight.
There are two other guys who have similarly-high Projected Plus/Minus values and low salaries on FD: Andrew Bogut and Steven Adams. Adams is a little more expensive at $4,700 on FD, but he also comes with a higher projected ceiling (43.6 points), higher projected minute total (30.2), and superior matchup: His +8.85 Opponent Plus/Minus against the 76ers is the third-highest mark of all Cs in the slate. Adams doesn’t project for high usage (14.6 percent), but he’s just so consistent, given his block and rebound rates: Among centers last year, he posted the highest Consistency rating at 85 percent. It might be hard to choose between him and Capela in spots, but they’re definitely both in play in all contest formats. Bogut is a fine GPP option, too.
Leverage Plays
Again, the center spot is stacked tonight. A guy that could go under-the-radar is Pistons stud Andre Drummond. He has a tough matchup on paper — he has a slate-low Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.19 and faces a Raptors defense that ranked 11th last season — but that data might be a bit misleading. The Raptors lost Biyombo in free agency (DRPM of +3.02) and thus will rely heavily on Jonas Valanciunas (DRPM of +0.64) to anchor their defense. Drummond was excellent last season, averaging 1.17 fantasy points per minute and .362 per touch. It’s a small sample, but in the two games last season without Reggie Jackson (who’s currently injured), Drummond averaged 45.4 DK points and exceeded salary-based expectations by an average of +11.2 points. Ish Smith wasn’t as good as Reggie last year in the pick-and-roll — Smith averaged 0.7 points per possessions on those plays — but Drummond can do damage in a variety of ways: He’s one of very few players who realistically has 20-20 upside on a night.
Good luck tonight!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
