Tonight’s four-game slate features two teams (the Celtics and Kings) playing the second night of a back-to-back and four teams (the Wizards, Hawks, Bulls, and Clippers) playing their first game of the season.
Point Guard
Studs
John Wall, Chris Paul, and Damian Lillard headline the point guard options on the slate.
Lillard may be an easy fade in tournaments based on his most recent performance. He’s also the cheapest of the three point guards, and over the past two seasons — playoffs included — Lillard produced a -2.45 Plus/Minus against the Clippers. Recency bias could inflate his ownership levels: He’s currently projected at 21 to 25 percent on FanDuel.
Wall mentioned to reporters that he doesn’t believe he can play eight to 10-minute stretches, but 30 minutes a game isn’t off the table. This is very concerning for cash games but potentially exploitable in tournaments. Assuming the public latched onto that quote, Wall probably won’t garner as much exposure tonight, especially if people gravitate towards Lillard after his amazing Tuesday performance. That makes Wall a solid leverage play on this small slate.
Paul is somewhere in between. He’s the most expensive of the three on FanDuel and his Projected Plus/Minus of +3.6 tops Lillard’s and Wall’s marks. After watching George Hill carve up Lillard on Tuesday, I’m eager to see how Paul performs. Historically, he’s done poorly against the Trail Blazers in terms of Plus/Minus.
Value
Isaiah Thomas may have the best matchup among all PGs tonight. He boasts a cool +7.22 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings — the best mark on the slate. The Bulls played slow in the preseason, but I can’t recall the last time Rajon Rondo actively tried on defense. Since that’s anecdotal, I’ll provide some data: Opposing point guards against the Kings last season generated a +1.45 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +1.25 Plus/Minus on FanDuel — top-seven marks on each platform.
Leverage Plays
Despite the Kings winning by 19 last night, Ty Lawson played a game-high 36.5 minutes and the entire fourth quarter because Darren Collison is suspended for the first eight games and Garrett Temple is the interim backup point guard. Facing the Spurs could depress Lawson’s ownership (currently projected at 17 to 20 percent on FanDuel), but even if the game falls out of hand, Lawson will likely be asked to play significant minutes throughout.
Until Marcus Smart (ankle) returns, Terry Rozier should play starter-level minutes. In his NBA debut, Rozier provided 17.25 DraftKings points at $3,200. After experiencing a salary increase of just $100, his implied point total inched to 14.15 for tonight’s game vs. the Bulls. It’s purely a punt play, but it’s a sneaky one that could hit if coach Brad Stevens wants to rest his regulars on the second night of a back-to-back.
Shooting Guard
Stud
C.J. McCollum was held in check by the Clippers last season in nine games (playoffs included), meeting salary-based expectations just three times on FanDuel and DraftKings. Because his projected ownership (26 to 30 percent) is the highest among all players on FanDuel, a tournament fade may be in order. He boasts the best Projected Plus/Minus (+3.2) on FanDuel among shooting guards, however, making it difficult to avoid him in cash games.
Values
The loss of Evan Turner and injury to Marcus Smart (ankle) allowed Avery Bradley to increase his offensive role, which was on full display in the preseason and last night. If you’re going to fade McCollum, Bradley offers significant salary savings and a better Opponent Plus/Minus (+2.93).
Jamal Crawford leads all shooting guards with a +5.2 Projected Plus/Minus in the Phan Model on DraftKings. In four regular season games against the Trail Blazers last season, he registered a +3.48 Plus/Minus. At just $3,600, he needs only 15.65 fantasy points to hit value and is currently projected for 25.6 minutes.
Leverage Plays
Targeting a Celtics defense playing on the second night of a back-to-back could be a sneaky GPP move. If doing so, perhaps look at Dwyane Wade, who’s had seven days off since the Bulls’ last contest. It’s already been reported that he’ll play in the range of 30 to 32 minutes per game. If the public proves to be scared off by his health, unknown role in the offense, and position-high salary of $7,000 on FanDuel, you could find yourself at an advantage in tournaments.
Akin to Bryan’s call of Anthony Davis in yesterday’s slate breakdown, utilizing Bradley Beal while healthy could separate you from the field. Some people won’t ever touch him again, and that could benefit those who welcome the risk. Beal is currently projected to be owned in 17 to 20 percent of FanDuel tournaments. If Wall is indeed limited, that could boost Beal’s ceiling even higher.
Small Forward
Studs
Kawhi Leonard is the Spurs’ number-one option on offense and just dropped 54.75 DK points on the Warriors. Jimmy Butler now has to compete with Wade (who has a projected usage rate of 27.47 percent) and Rondo. Kawhi and Butler cost the same on FanDuel, although Butler is $1,000 cheaper on DraftKings. Leonard offers stability and certainty, whereas Butler attempted fewer shots per game than Wade during the preseason and the Bulls lack any semblance of spacing in the starting unit. On FanDuel, Leonard is the obvious choice; on DraftKings, the salary difference puts Butler in play in tournaments.
Values
Rudy Gay leads all small forwards with a Projected Plus/Minus of +5.6 on DraftKings. I understand the hesitancy of using players going against Kawhi, but this is purely about value: Gay costs just $5,900 on DraftKings. On FanDuel, Jae Crowder leads the position with a +4.6 Projected Plus/Minus. He costs less than $5,600 on both sites. His +3.76 DK Opponent Plus/Minus, combined with his cheap salary, puts him as the highest-rated SF in the Phan Model.
Leverage Play
Moving past his earth-shattering dunk on JaVale McGee on Tuesday, Jonathon Simmons actually had a really impressive all-around game: He posted 29.3 DK points in 28 minutes. As a result, his salary was increased, but it was slight on FD: He’s still only $4,000 there and has projected ownership of nine to 12 percent. It’s tough to determine whether people will have recency bias in this case, as Simmons certainly isn’t a household name. In any case, at such a low price point and a projection of 25.6 minutes tonight, he’s in play in tournaments.
Power Forward
Studs
Blake Griffin led the Clippers with a 29.7 percent usage rate in the preseason and played 29 percent of his minutes without Paul on the floor. Staggering the two will allow Griffin to act as a primary facilitator for stretches. If those minutes are shared with Jamal Crawford and Mo Speights — two usage monsters — Griffin will have plenty of assist and rebound opportunities.
Among power forwards on tonight’s slate, Paul Millsap produced the highest Upside rate on both FanDuel (48 percent) and DraftKings (43 percent) last season. Replacing Al Horford — an average usage player — with Dwight Howard — the Hawks’ usage leader in the preseason — adds ambiguity to this offense. Dennis Schroder, the Hawks’ leader in usage rate over the past two seasons, will also join the starting lineup, but Millsap’s projected ownership on FanDuel is still 21 to 25 percent — the highest range among power forwards.
Griffin costs more on both FanDuel and DraftKings. It makes sense given his higher ceiling, but in both cases he possesses the lower floor. However, it is important to note that Millsap missed most of the preseason with a knee injury.
Value
Taj Gibson will be the starting power forward for the Bulls. He was their most efficient player in the preseason, and now that Pau Gasol won’t be stealing rebounds from him, he’s definitely in play for a double-double. Gibson is much more affordable on DraftKings (99 percent Bargain Rating), and it helps that the Bulls are currently implied to score a slate-best 105.75 points.
Leverage Play
Markieff Morris is the second-highest rated power forward in the FanDuel Phan Model at $5,600. The matchup against Millsap isn’t ideal, but his Opponent Plus/Minus sits at +3.07 and he could actually play some small-ball center with Ian Mahinmi (knee) unavailable. His projected ownership stands at 13 to 16 percent on FanDuel.
Center
Stud
DeMarcus Cousins failed to meet salary-based expectations in all three games against the Spurs last season. In the 13 times he played on the second night of a back-to-back, Cousins averaged 20.3 points and shot 38.6 percent from the floor, resulting in a -4.47 Plus/Minus on FanDuel and -6.34 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. The Kings are currently implied to score a slate-low 98.5 points. Cousins is the most expensive player on FanDuel ($9,800) and DraftKings ($10,300), but his current Projected Plus/Minus of +4.02 is second among all centers tonight. He’s projected to be the highest-owned center on FanDuel (13 to 16 percent), but there’s definitely risk here.
Value
Marcin Gortat should get the bulk of the center minutes with Mahinmi (knee) out. Quick #NarrativeStreet aside: His in-depth knowledge of Dwight Howard from their playing days in Orlando isn’t something that will show up in the Player Models. On DraftKings, Gortat’s Projected Plus/Minus of +5.5 leads all centers and his 84 percent Consistency over the past year ranks second.
Leverage Play
Pau Gasol was played off the court on Tuesday against the Warriors. Most people may be inclined to view that as the norm. I view it as a terrible matchup and an opportunity moving forward. Gasol costs $100 more than Horford on FanDuel, which should further reduce his ownership. The new team acclimation process limits my optimism, but on a small slate dabbling in Gasol in tournaments could pay dividends. Gasol was among the league leaders in blocks per game last season, and Cousins had his shot blocked a league-high 1.8 times per game.
News Updates
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