The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a two-game slate starting at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The Raptors have their backs against the wall after dropping Game 5 vs. the Celtics. They’ll need to win two games in a row to advance to the Eastern Conference finals, and that starts today with Game 6.
With that in mind, expect their starters to continue to log heavy minutes. Kyle Lowry has played at least 40 minutes in three of his past four games, including a whopping 46.5 minutes in Game 3. Lowry has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can do a lot of damage with that much playing time.
Lowry also stands out as one of the best pure values on the slate on DraftKings, where his $8,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.
Value
Patrick Beverley is still playing limited minutes for the Clippers, but he was able to score 20.5 DraftKings points over just 20.6 minutes in his last game. His playing time should only increase as he gets further removed from his injury, and Beverley has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s another excellent target on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
Fast Break
Sticking with the Clippers, Lou Williams leads the position on FanDuel with a Bargain Rating of 86%. He hasn’t displayed his typical ceiling during the playoffs, but he has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two games. The Clippers stand out as the top team target on today’s slate – their implied team total of 114.25 is the top mark by a significant margin – so Williams definitely has appeal at a reduced salary.
Kemba Walker has been hit-or-miss during this series from a fantasy perspective. That said, he does lead all point guards with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.51 on FanDuel. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three of his past four games, but he’s shot just 25.9% from 3-point range over that stretch.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Paul George heard all your jokes during the first round of the playoffs and did not find them amusing. “Playoff P” has been excellent over his past two games, scoring 44.1 and 45.8 FanDuel points, and he remains very reasonably priced at $8,200 for Game 4 vs. the Nuggets. His salary results in a Bargain Rating of 86%, and George has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.11 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool).
Value
It’s hard to look past Marcus Smart on FanDuel. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first five games vs. the Raptors, and he’s carrying a massive workload for the Celtics at the moment. He’s currently projected for 39.0 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.91 FanDuel points per minute this season. He remains one of the best pure values on FanDuel, where his $5,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Fast Break
I will continue to go down with the Fred VanVleet ship, especially in an elimination game. He is launching shots at will in this series, he just hasn’t been able to make any. He’s shooting just 34.4% from the field and 31.5% from 3-point range, but he’s still posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in four of his first five games vs. the Celtics. He has immense upside if his jump shot actually starts falling.
Gary Harris is coming off 35.5 minutes in Game 3 vs. the Clippers, which was his highest minute count since rejoining the rotation. Harris hasn’t been a particularly impactful fantasy asset this season – he’s averaged just 0.67 DraftKings points per minute – but it’s hard to find someone with a comparable workload at such a minimal price tag. He’s priced at just $4,600 on DraftKings, and comparable players have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.20 on DraftKings.
Small Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard has struggled a bit in this series vs. the Nuggets. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in two of the first three games, and he’s averaging just 46.23 FanDuel points per game. That’s not exactly what we’ve come to expect from Kawhi during the playoffs, but it’s far from a disaster as well.
The good news is, Kawhi has plenty of room for improvement moving forward. He’s shot just 18.2% from 3-point range during this series, which is well below his mark of 37.8% during the regular season. He should be just fine in the long run, and he leads the position with nine Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Value
Jerami Grant leads the position with a Bargain Rating of 79% on FanDuel, and he’s seen a massive amount of playing time in this series. He’s logged at least 40.2 minutes in each of his past two games, which makes him very appealing at just $5,000. His per-minute production has dipped during the past month, but he’s averaged a very respectable 0.82 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Fast Break
Jaylen Brown was an obvious buy-low target in the Celtics last game, and he responded with 42.2 FanDuel points. He’s now scored at least 39.6 FanDuel points in three of his past four games, which makes him a reasonable target at his current price tag across the industry.
Michael Porter Jr. is the Nuggets “break glass in case of emergency” option. His lack of defensive ability has limited his playing time during the postseason, but he can give the team a jolt offensively off the bench. That’s exactly what he did in his last game, scoring 40.0 DraftKings points over just 23.1 minutes. There’s no guarantee that he sees that much playing time again today, but his upside at his current salary is undeniable.
Power Forward
Stud
Pascal Siakam was a major disappointment in his last game. He finished with just 17.0 DraftKings points, but he was limited to just 28.6 minutes thanks to a combination of foul trouble and the game turning into a blowout.
Thanks caused his salary to drop to just $7,800 on DraftKings, which makes him an excellent buy-low option on today’s slate. Siakam averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.38 with a comparable salary prior to the shutdown, so he has plenty of upside at that price tag. He should also see a massive workload on today’s slate: he’s currently projected for 43.0 minutes in our NBA Models.
Value
Marcus Morris has become one of the Clippers’ most important role players. That hasn’t always translated to fantasy value, but it does mean he should see plenty of time on the court in today’s contest. He’s coming off 34.8 minutes in his last game, and he’s averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That makes him a reasonable option at his current salary across the industry.
Fast Break
Daniel Theis put together his best game of the series in Game 5, finishing with 30.0 DraftKings points. He played approximately 30.5 minutes in that contest, and Theis has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season. That means his production wasn’t all that fluky, so he should be able to put together another nice outing if he sees a comparable workload in Game 6.
Jayson Tatum is a bit pricy on DraftKings, but his $9,400 salary on FanDuel comes with a position-high Bargain Rating of 71%. He also leads the position with 10 Pro Trends. He hasn’t exactly crushed in this series from a fantasy perspective, posting a negative Plus/Minus four of his first five games, which could result in slightly lower ownership in Game 6.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic has been awesome for the Nuggets over their past two games. Jamal Murray has not been able to find the same level of success offensively vs. the Clippers, so the Nuggets have gone back to playing through Jokic. He’s scored at least 54.4 FanDuel points in each of the past two games and has filled the box score in a variety of categories.
He’s probably due for a bit a shooting regression – he’s gone 23-41 from the field over his past two games – but he still possesses arguably the highest ceiling on the slate. Overall, he leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $9,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 76%.
Value
If you’re not paying up for Jokic, Ivica Zubac looks like your best bet at the position. He has arguably the top matchup at the position given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.15 on FanDuel. He was dreadful in his last contest, scoring just 8.6 FanDuel points, but that has caused his salary to drop to just $4,700 on FanDuel for today’s game. It results in a Bargain Rating of 79%, which ranks first among centers.
Fast Break
The Raptors have the potential to be without Serge Ibaka today. He’s currently listed as questionable, although head coach Nick Nurse does believe he’ll be able to suit up. Make sure to monitor Ibaka’s status using the new Labs Insiders tool.
That said, the Raptors could offer some value at the position if he is ruled out. Marc Gasol would likely see a few additional minutes, while Chris Boucher could enter the rotation as well.
Pictured above: Serge Ibaka #9, Fred VanVleet #23, OG Anunoby #3 and Pascal Siakam #43 of the Toronto Raptors
Credit: Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images
