The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a two-game slate starting at 6:30 p.m. ET
Point Guard
Stud
The big question heading into today’s slate is the status of Giannis Antetokounmpo. He was able to suit up in his last game after being listed as questionable but left early after aggravating his ankle injury. He’s listed as questionable once again, and it sounds like he will be a true game-time decision.
If he’s out, Eric Bledsoe becomes a very appealing option at just $5,200 on FanDuel. That’s already a low price tag for him — it results in a Bargain Rating of 98% — and Bledsoe has seen a team-high usage bump of +8.5% with Giannis off the court this season. He’s averaged 1.33 FanDuel points per minute in that situation, so he can do a lot of damage if Giannis is ultimately ruled out.
Make sure to get all the latest updates on Giannis’ status using the Labs Insider tool.
Value
Rajon Rondo has played limited minutes since returning to the Lakers’ lineup, but that hasn’t stopped him from posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first two games. He was a major value in his last game, posting a Plus/Minus of +23.79 on DraftKings, but his salary has remained very reasonable at just $3,900. Rondo has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to rack up fantasy points.
Fast Break
Goran Dragic has been excellent for the Miami Heat inside of the bubble. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.11 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +9.47 over his past 10 games. He didn’t even shoot the ball particularly well in his last game, going just 5-of-17 from the field and 1-of-9 from 3-point range, so he should be able to improve on his 34.8 FanDuel points in today’s contest.
Russell Westbrook is back to playing a healthy number of minutes for the Rockets, which makes him a really strong target at just $8,400. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.32 with a comparable salary this season in games where he’s projected for a least 32 minutes (per the Trends tool). He was dreadful in his last game, scoring just 34.75 DraftKings points, but he remains one of the best fantasy producers in the business.
Shooting Guard
Stud
It’s going to be hard to look past Khris Middleton if Giannis is unable to suit up today. He posted a usage rate of just under 35% in Game 4 vs. the Heat and ultimately finished with 29 shot attempts. The result was 59.6 FanDuel points over 48 minutes. He should be looking at another monster workload today if Giannis is out of the lineup, especially in an elimination game.
Middleton is also underpriced on FanDuel even if Giannis is active given his Bargain Rating of 94%.
Value
Sticking with the Bucks, Donte DiVincenzo started the second half in place of Giannis in their last game, so he would likely move into their starting lineup if he’s ruled out for Game 5. DiVincenzo averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can take advantage of a few additional minutes of playing time. He’s dirt cheap at just $3,500 on DraftKings, and he’d be a really tough fade if Giannis is inactive.
Fast Break
Jimmy Butler has alternated two very good games with two poor games during this series. This matchup still doesn’t set up as well for him as it does for some of his teammates – Butler was one of the worst 3-point shooters in the league during the regular season – but Butler is capable of scoring fantasy points in a variety of ways.
Don’t forget about James Harden on today’s slate. It’s usually tough to do that, but that could happen if the Bucks become the chalk options. Harden is one of the best fantasy producers on the planet, so the idea of grabbing him at reduced ownership is always appealing for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James continues to defy Father Time, and he’s in one of the best possible spots vs. the Houston Rockets. They have zero size on the interior, so LeBron can gobble up points in the paint and rebounds in this matchup. He did both in Game 2 of this series, and he also chipped in nine assists, four steals, and two blocks for good measure.
The Lakers lead the slate with an implied team total of 113.75 points, and LeBron provides one of the safest floors in fantasy.
Value
The Heat put out a length injury report ahead of Game 5, but it doesn’t seem like any of their players are in serious jeopardy of missing this contest. That includes Jae Crowder, who played through a questionable designation in Game 4. He’s been excellent over his past three games, logging at least 29.3 FanDuel points in each, and he continues to fire the ball at will from behind the 3-point line. The Bucks allowed the second-highest percentage of opponent shots from 3-point range this season, so expect Crowder to keep firing on today’s slate.
Fast Break
Eric Gordon is the clear third option for the Rockets behind Harden and Westbrook, but he’s a pretty darn good third option. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past 10 games on FanDuel despite the fact that he’s seen a slight decrease in usage with Westbrook back in the lineup. He’s made up for it by increasing his efficiency, so he’s definitely viable at just $5,200 on FanDuel.
Most of the top values at the position stand out on FanDuel, but Duncan Robinson is an exception. His $4,700 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%, and he’s coming off 35.25 DraftKings points in his last outing. His playing time has been down a bit in this series, but he did play more than 39.2 minutes in his last game. That contest did go to overtime, but that still puts him on track for more than 34 minutes in regulation.
Power Forward
Stud
Everything that I said about LeBron applies even more for Anthony Davis. The Rockets have absolutely no answer for him on the interior. He dominated in his last game, scoring 34 points with 10 rebounds while shooting 62.5% from the field, and he ultimately finished with 55.5 DraftKings points. He’s scored at least 55.25 DraftKings points in five of his past six games, and his $10,600 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
The PF position is pretty thin outside of Davis, but Robert Covington stands out as a nice value. He’s logging huge minutes for the Rockets – he’s currently projected for 38.5 minutes in our NBA Models – and he’s averaged 0.96 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Davis is a center option on FanDuel, so Covington should be a very popular option there.
Fast Break
If you do want to pivot away from Covington on FanDuel, Kyle Kuzma seems like the preferred target. He isn’t paying as many minutes during the postseason, but he’s averaged 0.85 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s coming off 24.2 FanDuel points in his last game despite just seven shot attempts.
Giannis is listed as a PF on DraftKings, and he will obviously be an interesting option if he’s able to suit up. Giannis is the best fantasy producer in basketball on a per-minute basis, and he scored 28.5 DraftKings points over just 11.5 minutes in Game 4. He will likely command lower ownership even if he is active given the potential threat for reinjury, which only increases his appeal.
Center
Stud
Bam Adebayo stands out as the lone stud option at the position, and he doesn’t even have center eligibility on FanDuel. That said, Davis is listed as a center, so you can just flop their positions depending on which site you’re using.
Adeabyo has been an excellent fantasy producer in his past two games vs. the Bucks, scoring 49.0 and 56.0 DraftKings points. He has the potential to fill the stat sheet in every category, and he’s displayed more scoring upside than usual in this matchup as well.
Value
P.J. Tucker is always in play given his minimal salary and workload. He’s currently projected for 37.3 minutes in our NBA Models and just $4,900 on FanDuel, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.76.
Fast Break
Brook Lopez isn’t really a stud or a value, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t one of the best plays at the position. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.35 over his past 10 games, and he’s played at least 38.1 minutes in each of his past two games. He’s also increased his usage rate by +4.7% with Giannis off the court this season, so he would have more upside than usual if he’s ultimately ruled out.
Pictured above: Anthony Davis #3 of the Los Angeles Lakers
Photo credit: Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images
