NBA DFS Breakdown (Friday, Sep. 25): Target the Celtics in Must-Win Game

Friday’s NBA slate features Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat starting at 8:30 p.m. ET. If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game format, check out my primers on DraftKings or FanDuel before building your lineups.

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Studs

Jayson Tatum is the most expensive player in this contest, and it was a tale of two halves for him in Game 4. He was dreadful in the first half – he didn’t score a single point – but he exploded for 28 points on 10-of-16 shooting in the second half. Overall, he finished with 52.25 DraftKings points, which was more than enough to put him in the optimal showdown lineup.

He’s been excellent as a scorer all season, but his improvement in the peripheral categories has taken his fantasy game to another level during the playoffs. He’s averaged 10.2 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game during the postseason compared to just 7.0 rebounds and 3.0 assists during the regular season. Part of that is due to an increase in minutes, but he’s also increased his assist rate and rebound rate. He has the top ceiling for all the Celtics’ players in our NBA Models and it’s really not that close.

After Tatum, Jaylen Brown stands out as their No. 2 option. He was also in the optimal showdown lineup in Game 4, and he’s been the Celtics’ most efficient scorer in this series. He’s shot 55.9% from the field and 58.8% from 3-point range, both of which represent solid increases compared to his marks during the regular season.

That has obviously been great for his fantasy stock. He has scored at least 39.25 DraftKings points in each of his past two games, including a high of 49.75 DraftKings points. I think he’s probably overpriced given that he’s likely due for some shooting regression, so I have no problem fading him on today’s slate.

Kemba Walker is a more appealing target in this matchup. He’s been pretty consistent after an early shooting slump during the playoffs, and he’s scored at least 31.5 DraftKings points in each of his past five games. The Celtics were counting on Walker when they signed him during the offseason, and this is an opportunity to prove his worth.

All three of those options have the potential to play massive minutes in an elimination contest. The Celtics are also slight 3-point favorites, which gives them the edge over the Heat in terms of implied team total. They stand out as the clear team to target today.

On the Heat side, Bam Adeabyo is their most expensive player. He’s been absolutely fantastic in this series. He’s scored at least 43.5 DraftKings points in all four games, and he’s posted a double-double in each of his past three. He has been the best fantasy producer on the Heat during the regular season on a per-minute basis, and he’s also led the Heat in minutes per game this series. That makes Adebayo a very appealing option, and he definitely deserves some consideration in one of the premium positions.

Jimmy Butler is coming off 43.25 DraftKings in Game 4, but I remain lukewarm on him. He was a pedestrian scorer during the regular season, particularly from behind the arc, and those struggles have been prevalent vs. the Celtics’ excellent defense. His effective FG% has dropped from 57.3% vs. Milwaukee to 44.8% vs. Boston.

The Celtics are also a tough team to rack up peripherals against, so Butler will need to increase his efficiency to be a relevant fantasy option at his current salary. Overall, he’s scored more than 37.75 DraftKings points in just one of four contests, which is simply not going to get it done.

Midrange

The big story in Game 4 was the ridiculous performance from Tyler Herro. The 20-year-old rookie scored 37 points in that contest, which was the second-highest scoring game in playoff history for someone under the age of 21. The only player with a better performance before the legal drinking age was Magic Johnson, who dropped 42 points on the 76ers during the 1980 NBA Finals. That’s pretty impressive company for Herro.

Herro has scored at least 30.75 DraftKings points in all four games vs. the Celtics, so he continues to look like a solid option. That said, his salary has jumped up quite a bit after his monster performance in Game 4, and he should command increased ownership as well. Fading Herro is a bit scary at the moment, but it definitely has some merit.

Goran Dragic is actually cheaper than Herro on FanDuel at the moment – his $10,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95% – but he’s been the superior fantasy producer on a per-minute basis over the past month. He wasn’t particularly efficient in Game 4, shooting just 8-of-21 from the field and 3-of-9 from 3-point range, but that kind of volume is appealing in the single-game format. He has the potential for a big offensive game if his shot is falling.

Jae Crowder is another player who should see some positive shooting regression today. He shot a dreadful 1-of-9 from the field and 1-of-7 from 3-point range, which looks like a major outlier. He had scored at least 27.0 DKFP in seven straight games prior to that outing, so he looks like a prime bounce-back candidate.

Crowder owns the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings in our NBA Models, which puts him behind just Tatum and Adebayo. He’s an excellent option on today’s slate.

Gordon Hayward, Marcus Smart, and Daniel Theis round out the Celtics’ rotation. All three players are projected for at least 30 minutes in this contest, and I wouldn’t expect anyone outside of their top six to play much in an elimination game. Smart has been the best option of the trio recently, and he was able to overcome a lackluster shooting performance in Game 4 thanks to 11 assists. Smart is a gamer, so expect him to contribute in a must-win contest in one way or another.

Values & Punts

These are the players who typically decide these showdown contests. It may not feel comfortable to roster someone who isn’t projected for a ton of minutes, but history suggests it’s the easiest way to find yourself at the top of the leaderboard. These plays typically command lower ownership than the mid-tier guys, so they allow you to differentiate your lineup without sacrificing the high-end stud production.

That said, this category is a bit thinner than usual today. The Celtics don’t figure to provide any value in this department given their projected rotation, which leaves on the Heat as a viable target.

Let’s break down some of the top options in this range rapid fire style:

• Duncan Robinson: $4,800 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel – Robinson easily owns the top minute-projection in our NBA Models among all players in this price range. He struggled in Game 4 but scored 21.25 and 31.5 DraftKings points in the previous two games. He’s always capable of filling it up from behind the 3-point line.
• Kelly Olynyk: $3,600 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel – Kelly O has played around 12.8 minutes in each of the past two games, and he’s capable of producing over 1.00 fantasy points per minute. He’s posted a solid usage rate in his past two contests, but his fantasy production has been limited by a 2-of-12 shooting performance from the field.
• Andre Iguodala: $3,200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel – Iggy played well enough to find himself in the optimal DraftKings lineup for Game 4, thanks in part to his 27.2 minutes of playing time. That should make him a popular option today, but I’m not expecting the same volume of minutes today. He played 7.4 minutes or fewer in each of his previous two contests.

Pictured above: Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics
Photo credit: Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images