Friday night features an eight-game slate as most teams are playing their first game back from the NBA All-Star Weekend. There are a plethora of props to choose from, but using our tools will guide you to the best possible props on the board. This article will feature three player props to target from this large slate before heading into the weekend.
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NBA Player Prop Picks
Jrue Holiday Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made
Coming off of his second All-Star appearance, Bucks point guard Jrue Holiday finds himself in a great spot tonight, likely without Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is doubtful to play. In seven games without Giannis this season, Holiday is averaging 23.9 points per game while shooting 53.3% from the field and 41.9% from behind the arc. He has a 30.1% usage rate and has also averaged 10 assists per game over that span. He will have the ball in his hands every Bucks possession.
This is a perfect storm for Holiday to reach this over 2.5 3-pointers made prop tonight. The Heat are allowing 13.1 3-pointers made per game this season, which ranks as the second-highest in the league. Holiday has already played the Heat three times and has made at least three 3-pointers in two of those three games. In his seven games in the month of February, Holiday is averaging 3.1 made 3-pointers per game while shooting 41.5% from downtown. The Heat lead the league in the least amount of points scored in the paint per game, so they will need Holiday to cook from the perimeter.
Jarrett Allen Over 14.5 Points
The month of February has also been kind to Cavaliers center Jarrett Allen. Not only is he one of the best defensive big men in the league, but Allen has been scoring the ball at a high rate. In his last nine games, Allen is averaging 18.3 points per game while shooting a ridiculous 73% from the field. Allen has scored 15 or more points in seven of those nine games and will get a great chance to keep the scoring momentum against the weak interior Hawks defense.
Our NBA Model has Allen projected to score 16 points, while his over 14.5 points prop is heavily favored at -120 on FanDuel sportsbook. Allen will get the luxury of going up against the Hawks frontcourt that has allowed 53.4 points per game in the paint, which ranks as the fifth-highest in the league. They also rank 22nd in Rebounding Percentage and are playing without John Collins, so the chance at offensive rebounds and put-backs is very high. Allen looks great in this matchup.
Jabari Smith Jr. Over 14.5 Points
Another over points prop that looks fantastic in our NBA Model is Jabari Smith Jr., over 14.5 points. The Rockets will be playing without Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, and Eric Gordon who was traded to the Clippers. That will open the door with a huge opportunity for Smith Jr., who has scored 15 or more points in two of his last three games while averaging 15.7 per game during that span. Our model has Smith Jr. projected for 16.1 points, well over this prop line.
The Warriors are playing on a back-to-back after losing by 13 points against the Lakers last night. They gave up 124 points as they continue to struggle to lock opponents up. This season the Warriors have allowed 118.6 points per game, which is the fourth-highest in the league. They also rank 20th in Defensive Rating (114.2) entering tonight’s games. With the extra usage and great scoring matchup, expect the rookie to rise to the occasion against the NBA champions.