NBA Market Watch: 11/30

I’ve received a lot of questions over the past couple of weeks regarding whether Bargain Rating is a valuable thing to use for players who only play on one site. While Bargain Rating does compare site pricing, it is still a useful tool even if you are only playing on FanDuel or DraftKings, but not both.

While you may use Bargain Rating to decide where to buy certain players if you play both sites, you can still use Bargain Rating to identify players who are priced lower (or higher) than they should be if you only play one site. In that case, you are essentially using the other site’s pricing algorithm as a tool to locate mispriced players on the site you do play.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at tonight’s bargain buys:

DraftKings

Russell Westbrook

Westbrook’s price has just about completed its transition from no-Durant to yes-Durant levels. Without Durant, he will typically be priced in the mid-$12k range and he finds himself at $10,6000 currently. Last January, we had a handful of games where Durant was playing 35-40 minutes a night and Westbrook found himself at a similar price point. Given those circumstances, he was able to exceed his implied point total around half of the time:

market1

 

Tim Duncan

Tonight, Duncan is tied with Derrick Rose as the best bargain on DraftKings as both players boast a 92% Bargain Rating entering tonight’s contests. Duncan has actually had a Bargain Rating of 73 or higher in every single game this season on DraftKings, as the two main sites continue to disagree on his price point. Still, Duncan’s Bargain Rating hasn’t creeped this high too frequently over the past two seasons. Here is how he has fared when his Bargain Rating is 90+ on DraftKings:

market2

As far as actual production, Tim has been a little all over the place recently. Over his past six games, he has posted a Plus/Minus of 10 or more three times but also missed his implied point total three other times. He will also get some help from his matchup, as the Bulls have yielded the second-highest Plus/Minus to opposing centers and power forwards:

market3

 

FanDuel

Blake Griffin

Blake Griffin rarely gets as cheap as he is right now. Since the start of the 2014-2015 season, he has only played eight games at or below his current $9,100 price tag on FanDuel. The results in those games?

 

market4

 

Pretty good. Griffin’s price is down $800 over the past month and his 74% Bargain Rating is among the leaders for starting power forwards tonight. If Blake plays just an average game by his 2015-2016 standards, his 42.8 fantasy points will exceed his implied projection by nearly six points.

 

Jared Sullinger

Sullinger comes at a pretty reasonable price this evening – he costs $300 less on FanDuel than on DraftKings and once you account for the difference in overall salary cap, that’s usually going to make the player a pretty good deal on FD.

Jared’s price has not moved a whole lot over the past couple of weeks and he has exceeded his current implied point projection of 23.59 in three straight games. Even with a decent number of games coming at this price point, Sullinger has smashed his expected value on FanDuel:

market5

 

Sullinger is prone to the random 20 minute game, as are all members of the Celtics frontcourt. Still, as the third highest rated power forward at the moment in Phan’s Model and facing a Miami team that could be without a lot of their firepower, Sullinger is well worth consideration given his current price point.

I’ve received a lot of questions over the past couple of weeks regarding whether Bargain Rating is a valuable thing to use for players who only play on one site. While Bargain Rating does compare site pricing, it is still a useful tool even if you are only playing on FanDuel or DraftKings, but not both.

While you may use Bargain Rating to decide where to buy certain players if you play both sites, you can still use Bargain Rating to identify players who are priced lower (or higher) than they should be if you only play one site. In that case, you are essentially using the other site’s pricing algorithm as a tool to locate mispriced players on the site you do play.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at tonight’s bargain buys:

DraftKings

Russell Westbrook

Westbrook’s price has just about completed its transition from no-Durant to yes-Durant levels. Without Durant, he will typically be priced in the mid-$12k range and he finds himself at $10,6000 currently. Last January, we had a handful of games where Durant was playing 35-40 minutes a night and Westbrook found himself at a similar price point. Given those circumstances, he was able to exceed his implied point total around half of the time:

market1

 

Tim Duncan

Tonight, Duncan is tied with Derrick Rose as the best bargain on DraftKings as both players boast a 92% Bargain Rating entering tonight’s contests. Duncan has actually had a Bargain Rating of 73 or higher in every single game this season on DraftKings, as the two main sites continue to disagree on his price point. Still, Duncan’s Bargain Rating hasn’t creeped this high too frequently over the past two seasons. Here is how he has fared when his Bargain Rating is 90+ on DraftKings:

market2

As far as actual production, Tim has been a little all over the place recently. Over his past six games, he has posted a Plus/Minus of 10 or more three times but also missed his implied point total three other times. He will also get some help from his matchup, as the Bulls have yielded the second-highest Plus/Minus to opposing centers and power forwards:

market3

 

FanDuel

Blake Griffin

Blake Griffin rarely gets as cheap as he is right now. Since the start of the 2014-2015 season, he has only played eight games at or below his current $9,100 price tag on FanDuel. The results in those games?

 

market4

 

Pretty good. Griffin’s price is down $800 over the past month and his 74% Bargain Rating is among the leaders for starting power forwards tonight. If Blake plays just an average game by his 2015-2016 standards, his 42.8 fantasy points will exceed his implied projection by nearly six points.

 

Jared Sullinger

Sullinger comes at a pretty reasonable price this evening – he costs $300 less on FanDuel than on DraftKings and once you account for the difference in overall salary cap, that’s usually going to make the player a pretty good deal on FD.

Jared’s price has not moved a whole lot over the past couple of weeks and he has exceeded his current implied point projection of 23.59 in three straight games. Even with a decent number of games coming at this price point, Sullinger has smashed his expected value on FanDuel:

market5

 

Sullinger is prone to the random 20 minute game, as are all members of the Celtics frontcourt. Still, as the third highest rated power forward at the moment in Phan’s Model and facing a Miami team that could be without a lot of their firepower, Sullinger is well worth consideration given his current price point.