Tonight, we have a nine game NBA slate with several players who are really good buys on each site. One note before we get going – I’m going to stop featuring Tim Duncan on DraftKings. He’s been cheap on DK all season and remains on sale tonight. I don’t know if Pop is going to be pulling shenanigans tonight against the 76ers or not, but Tim ($5,900) is there if you want him.
DraftKings
Greg Monroe
From a purely salary-based perspective, it’s hard to be in a better place than Greg Monroe is right now on DraftKings. His monthly salary change is -$1,500 and his Bargain Rating is 85% on the site, so he is screaming “Buy” tonight.
Greg’s salary appears to be down as the result of two poor games that came within the past month – a 29-point loss to Washington and a 24-point loss to Orlando. He posted fantasy point totals in the teens in each game, but other than that, has been rolling. I’m willing to forgive Monroe’s duds because really no Bucks players sniffed value in either of those two games.
He has exceeded tonight’s implied point total of 30.45 in four of his last five games. The one exception was a tough matchup against San Antonio where he slightly underperformed. Tonight against Portland, he scores positive points in Opponent Plus/Minus, Pace Differential, and Projected Plus/Minus. He is the top-rated play at center using Phan’s Model at the moment.
When a player has a large negative salary change and a high Bargain Rating, it seems to indicate that the site you’re looking at may be overreacting with its salary adjustment. Players who have fit that criteria in the past have added about two and a half points in Plus/Minus.
Jimmy Butler
Butler’s price came down $200 in advance of an 11/30 matchup against the Spurs. After Butler somewhat predictably underperformed against San Antonio, his price dropped another $300 to the $7,700 level where it remains today. Jimmy has scored 30+ in eight of his last nine games, with the Spurs game being the lone exception. That makes tonight’s implied point total of 34.13 very reachable in most matchups, and even more likely against tonight’s opponent, the Suns.
While DraftKings did adjust Butler’s price for a poor matchup, they did not hike it up for this solid matchup. While Phoenix’s -0.3 Opponent Plus/Minus for shooting guards is not ideal, the +2.2 Pace Differential is what I’m focused on. Butler has played in two games this year where the Pace Differential was above two points. They happen to be his two best games of the season so far, including a matchup against Phoenix last month.
FanDuel
Gerald Green
It sounds like Luol Deng is going to be out again tonight for the Heat, meaning Gerald should receive minutes in the mid to high twenties tonight. On FanDuel, he continues to find himself priced as a bench player at $3,700 and that’s why he has a 97% Bargain Rating this evening. Gerald has exceeded tonight’s implied point total of 13.12 in five of his last six games and his salary remains even (no change) over the past month.
The Wizards are allowing 30.5 points per game from 3-pointers to their opponents in 2015-2016, most in the league. Meanwhile, Green has been averaging 5.4 three-point attempts per game over his last five. We know from his time in Phoenix that Gerald can fill it up from downtown when he’s hot. Although his Projected Plus/Minus for tonight is a very good +7.6, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him come closer to his Ceiling of 32.5 if his shot is falling.
Blake Griffin
Blake’s price is way down over the past month even though you’d think Chris Paul’s likely absence would prompt a price increase from FanDuel. Actually, Blake’s price is up $200 after the first game CP3 missed against Orlando, but it’s still down $900 overall in the past month.
Looking at his salary history, FanDuel has been docking Blake whenever he has a bad game. Following a 22.6 point game against Phoenix, his price dropped $500 and after a 20.2 point game against Toronto, it dropped $400 more. Though he has been playing some good ball lately, his price still has a long way to go in order to recover from those two drops.
Chris Paul has missed five games for far this season and Blake has had monster games in three of those, posting fantasy totals of 50.1, 61.1, and 54.7 points. Blake’s +8.5 Projected Plus/Minus is further evidence that he should be priced higher on FanDuel for tonight’s game.
As always, you can find the full list of bargain plays here: https://www.fantasylabs.com/nba/player-ratings/bargain/ or in Player Models under the Bargain column.
