A busier than normal Thursday night of basketball results in a slower than normal Friday night of basketball tonight. With six games on the docket, it will be a little bit more difficult to find quality, under-the-radar plays using the market tools, pending value that opens up later in the day. Still, there are several great values on each site and as usual, I will highlight a couple of my favorites.
DraftKings
Kobe Bryant
About half of the people who clicked on this article just left, but for those still reading, let’s take a look at Kobe tonight. His -$800 price change over the past month is second only to Langston Galloway at SG. Additionally, his 92% Bargain Rating is far and away the top overall score on DraftKings tonight.
His price has plummeted but will his role in the Lakers offense change? I’m pretty sure he’s still going to shoot 20+ times no matter what. He might miss 14 of them, but as long as he can reach 25.85 fantasy points tonight, that doesn’t matter for DFS. The implied point total is very reasonable given the sheer amount of touches Kobe commands on offense. Over the past four games, Kobe has met or exceeded 25 points each time.
Due to his suppressed price, Kobe’s Projected Plus/Minus is +4.1 tonight. Historically, players with a similarly high Plus/Minus have done very well:
Finally, Kobe benefits from a +1.5 Opponent Plus/Minus tonight, which is the highest among shooting guards playing tonight. During initial projection sweeps, his 79.49 rating in Phan’s Model puts him at the top of his position.
John Wall
On Wednesday, I highlighted Wall on FanDuel and today, I am highlighting him on DraftKings. While FanDuel bumped Wall’s price by $900 after back-to-back huge games against the Cavs and Lakers, DraftKings has been slower to respond. Exceeding 60 fantasy points in consecutive games has only resulted in a +$100 price change on DraftKings since 11/28. Over the past month, Wall is still down $800 overall. One more big game and you would think that buying window finally slams shut on both sites, but we still have a great opportunity tonight on DK.
As if the ridiculous pricing weren’t enough, John will likely benefit from tonight’s game being played at warp speed. While Washington’s 102.6 possessions per game have given them the fourth fastest pace in 2015-2016, the Phoenix Suns are ranked number one with 103.7 possessions per game.
The Wizards are home tonight and as I’ve mentioned before, Wall is one of the few players whose home/away split I follow closely. Over the past two seasons, here it is again:
FanDuel
Clint Capela
Capela has served as a starter for the Rockets over the last several games, so he won’t necessarily have that “new starter” shine in NBA DFS tonight. Still, when Dwight Howard has been out, Clint has done very well for himself, averaging 29.44 fantasy points in those games. With an implied point total based on salary set at just 17.48, tonight seems like a good time to buy.
Despite taking some major steps in 2015-2016, Capela has not really seen his price rise too steeply. Up just $200 over the past month, Capela is currently boasts a 99% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. It doesn’t get better than that. Foul trouble is always a concern with Capela, but facing the Mavericks tonight may mitigate that risk some. Zaza Pachulia has drawn just 13 shooting fouls on the year and the Mavericks as a team rank just 25th in the league in points in the paint.
Thaddeus Young
Kristaps Porzingis sports a 97% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and is a fine play there, but Young is a little more interesting for the purposes of this article. Although his price has risen $1,000 on FanDuel over the past most, he remains a 94% Bargain on the site.
Thaddeus always feels like a risky play, but he has exceeded his current implied point total of 25.77 in nine of the last 10 games. Young’s Projected Plus/Minus of +10.6 puts him in the 95th percentile in that category. Looking at historical results, players have added over six and a half fantasy points when in a similar situation:
