It’s a big day in NBA DFS with FanDuel running a Mega Slam and several exciting matchups to take a look at, so I’ll skip over most of the fluff and get right into the market review.  But before I do, I’d recommend checking out Bales’ recent “How I use Bargain Rating” video, if you have not already done so.

 

DraftKings

Spurs Frontcourt

I wrote up Duncan in my previous market review, so this is coming with some risk of sounding like a broken record. But today Aldridge appears as a massive value on DraftKings as well and I will group the two of them together here.

As I’ve mentioned before, Duncan has had a high Bargain Rating on DK basically the whole season as the two sites have disagreed about his price point. Duncan in 2015-2016 has really been the perfect example of why site pricing is so crucial in NBA DFS. Looking at his game log this season, we can see that the same raw stats have led to him exceeded his current implied point total:

• 10/17 times on DraftKings
• 6/17 times on FanDuel

Additionally, we have Aldridge, who checks in as an 86% bargain on DraftKings by way of his $6,600 price tag. LaMarcus is in a spot right now where he has exceeded today’s implied point total of 29.07 in five of his last six games. The one game where he missed hitting value was the game where he appeared likeliest to do so – an 11/27 matchup against the Nuggets that Duncan sat out.

So obviously, you never know with the Spurs. But considering the Bucks +1.5 Opponent Plus/Minus Rating and Aldridge’s recent trend of scoring in the thirties, you’d have to give Aldridge good odds to exceed value again tonight on DraftKings.

 

Pau Gasol

Although Aldridge wasn’t able to hit value against the Nuggets, I like Gasol’s chances against Denver at home tonight. Pau is scoring all kinds of salary-based points tonight on DraftKings. Having seen his price drop by $400 over the past month, he currently boasts an 86% Bargain Rating. That makes him the second-best bargain on DK at center, right behind Duncan.

Pau has exceeded tonight’s implied point total of 29.99 in four of his last five games and just missed it in the fifth game. These games were no gimmes either – Pau racked up his points against the Spurs, Warriors, and Suns (who have been a tough matchup for bigs this year).

Since the start of last season, when Pau’s Projected Plus/Minus has met or exceeded three (where it is tonight), he has done very well for himself. If he can match his average of 41.73 points, he will have been an excellent play.

FanDuel

 

John Wall

Yeah, I get that John Wall is a super-obvious chalk play after destroying the Cavs last night and facing the Lakers tonight. In case you are looking for a reason to fade him, consider:

• His salary is down $1,300 in the past month. In fact, he has only played one other game at his current $8,100 price tag on FanDuel since the start of 2014-2015. In other words, Wall is AT HIS CHEAPEST PRICE POINT over the past two seasons tonight…against the Lakers.
• When priced below $8,500 (Currently $8,100), here’s Wall:

• Washington is the home team tonight. Here’s Wall at home:

• And finally, here’s the Lakers vs PGs this season:

If he weren’t on the second half of a back-to-back, this would be the perfect DFS storm. Instead, we will have to settle for the near-perfect DFS storm.

 

Nicolas Batum

Okay – after listing Wall, I’m going to try to dig a little bit deeper on this one. Make no mistake, Porzingis and Covington both exceed 95% in Bargain Rating tonight and are obvious plays. Because Covington is listed at a similar price point, Batum may go a bit overlooked tonight on FanDuel.

Batum’s 94% Bargain Rating is just a shade below Covington. Batum only needs 27 fantasy points tonight to meet his implied point total on FanDuel and he has exceeded that level in 11 of 15 games this season. The Warriors are a tough team to face, but the +3.5 Pace Differential Batum will benefit from tonight should more or less cancel out the -0.3 Opponent Plus/Minus score.

As always when facing the Warriors, there is some risk of the game turning into a blowout. But the Hornets only have two double-digit losses all year, both coming on the road. They get Golden State at home tonight, where they have been very good (8-2). Additionally, wings haven’t had too rough of a go against the Warriors lately, unless you want to use the 2015-2016 version of Kobe as your barometer:

Those were only a couple of plays from each site, but if you want a more complete picture tonight’s bargains, you can always check Player Ratings>Bargain Players or the Bargain column in Player Models.