Monday’s NBA slate features six games with several injuries and questionable players. We’ll analyze a couple:
- Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz: 9 p.m. ET
- Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Clippers: 10:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV
Note: The information below is as of 10:30 a.m. ET. Check out our live news feed and follow us on Twitter for up-to-the-minute news and analysis.
Utah Jazz
Injuries: Ricky Rubio (hip) and Raul Neto (hamstring) are out. Dante Exum (ankle) and Ekpe Udoh (back) are probable.
Injury background: Rubio will sit for the second straight game due to a tight left hip.
Neto is dealing with a tight hamstring and will be unavailable for the sixth straight game.
Exum hasn’t played since January 5th due to a sprained ankle. He recently participated in a practice with the G-League team.
Ekpe Udoh was unavailable one of the last two games due to back spasms.
Tonight’s impact: The Jazz have played seven games without both Rubio and Neto. Exum missed every one due to injury, and the Jazz went 6-1 in those contests.
Joe Ingles has shared primary playmaking duties with Mitchell sans Rubio, and Mitchell has typically dominated possessions late in games. In the first three games against the Thunder this season, Mitchell shot 27-of-67. No one else attempted more than 35 shots.
The potential return of Exum may disrupt the status quo, and he could eat into minutes for Royce O’Neale, which may be significant if Exum isn’t on a minute restriction. At the minimum, coach Quin Snyder can expand his rotation to nine and cut down on playing time for Kyle Korver.
O’Neale has started when Rubio and Neto have been sidelined, and he’s averaged a team-high and FantasyLabs’ +7.6 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 34.7 minutes per game, per the NBA On/Off tool. Ingles and Mitchell have posted assist rates of at least 30%.
O’Neale is on the radar as a value play. He costs the minimum on FanDuel, and playing time shouldn’t be an issue with a depleted backcourt.
When Rubio, Neto, and Alec Burks (traded) have been off the court, the Jazz have established a +1.4 Net Rating, per Cleaning the Glass. Their most successful five-man unit has come with Jae Crowder in place of Derrick Favors, generating a +30.6 Net Rating in 149 possessions.
The Thunder have allowed the highest opponent free-throw rate since the All-Star break, and their elite defense has dropped closer to average as they’ve gone 3-6 in their last nine. Rudy Gobert ranks in the top-10 in fouls drawn per game this season, and Mitchell has drawn more than five fouls per game without Rubio and Neto.
Expect a prolonged game with a ton of whistles that may aid the Jazz in reaching their implied total of 115.0 points. It’s only the second time they’ve been implied for as much with Rubio sidelined, and they’ve failed to score more than that in six straight games.
Celtics F Jayson Tatum (shoulder) is questionable.
Injury background: Tatum is dealing with a sore right shoulder. It’s his first time appearing on the injury report this season.
Tonight’s impact: Tatum missed two games as a rookie and has started every game this year. He has the third-lowest effective field goal percentage among Celtics rotation players at 51%, and he ranks second on the team in usage, field goal attempts, and rebounds per game.
When Tatum has been off the court since Marcus Smart and Marcus Morris moved into the starting lineup, Morris has led the Celtics in rebound and assist rate differential. The Celtics’ 107.3 Offensive Rating in those minutes has registered as their lowest mark, but their 104.51 pace in minutes without Tatum is their highest tempo, per NBA.com.
The other four Celtics starters have supplied a +9.0 Net Rating when they’ve played without Tatum this season, but their free-throw rate has become almost non-existent in those possessions. Al Horford has averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute in that lineup.
Jaylen Brown has typically been the replacement in the starting lineup when Morris or Smart haven’t played. Brown’s last three starts have all come with Kyrie Irving unavailable as well, and those outings may have skewed his output as a replacement starter: 25.88 DraftKings points.
The Celtics lost to the Clippers a month ago in a game Irving left early due to a sprained knee. The Celtics blew a 28-point lead. They are currently favored by 1.5 points on the road against a team with a top-five Defensive Efficiency since the All-Star break. The Clippers have also ranked fourth in pace over that span, helping explain the elevated Over/Under.
Photo credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Jayson Tatum
