Wednesday’s NBA slate features five games with several injuries and questionable players. We’ll analyze two situations:
- Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies: 8 p.m. ET
- Portland Trail Blazers at Chicago Bulls: 8 p.m. ET
Note: The information below is as of 10 a.m. ET. Check out our live news feed and follow us on Twitter for up-to-the-minute news and analysis.
Memphis Grizzlies
Injuries: Mike Conley (thigh) is questionable. Joakim Noah (knee), Kyle Anderson, Avery Bradley, Dillon Brooks, Jaren Jackson Jr. and C.J. Miles are out.
Injury background: Conley missed Monday’s game due to a sore left thigh. He went through shootaround that morning. He missed two other games this month for general soreness.
Tonight’s impact: When Conley has been off the court since the All-Star break, the Grizzlies have compiled a -0.7 Net Rating, per NBA.com stats. When the injured players — Conley included — and those no longer on the roster have been off the court this season, the Grizzlies have cultivated a +3.5 Net Rating, per Cleaning the Glass, in 249 possessions.
Jonas Valanciunas has been featured heavily for the depleted Grizzlies, and he’s averaged a team-high +1.51 DraftKings Plus/Minus with the same lineup restrictions above, per the NBA On/Off tool. Tyler Dorsey has started with Conley unavailable, and in the last two games Conley missed he averaged 44.88 DraftKings points in 40.5 minutes per game.
Delon Wright has also received a larger role in Conley’s absence, leading the Grizzlies with a 36.1% assist rate when Conley and Noah haven’t played. Wright and Dorsey have been the primary initiators in those minutes, and both will be premier value plays on DraftKings if Conley is unavailable. Wright is currently the fifth-most expensive shooting guard on FanDuel at $6,200 — his highest salary this season.
Minutes for Valanciunas, Dorsey, Wright and Justin Holiday should be stable. Chandler Parsons and Bruno Caboclo have been competing for the same minutes, and Ivan Rabb has rounded out the main rotation with Noah out.
The Grizzlies have wins over the Rockets, Jazz, Blazers and Thunder since the All-Star break. They were blitzed by the Hawks, but every other game has remained competitive. The likeliest outcome tonight, however, is a blowout loss, as the Warriors are expected to have all their players available.
Portland Trail Blazers
Injuries: Jusuf Nurkic (leg) and CJ McCollum (knee) are out.
Injury background: Nurkic suffered a compound leg fracture late in Monday’s win.
McCollum missed the previous four games with a strained left knee, and he won’t join the team on the four-game road trip.
Tonight’s impact: Jake Layman has started the last four games sans McCollum. In the five games McCollum has missed this season, Damian Lillard has averaged a team-high 53.8 DraftKings points and Seth Curry has averaged a team-high and FantasyLabs’ +8.2 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Curry has played more minutes than Layman in each of the last four games, and Layman has attempted one shot in consecutive games.
When McCollum and Nurkic have been off the court since the All-Star break, Lillard has averaged 1.44 DraftKings points per minute and a +6.5% usage rate differential. No other rotation player has notched a usage rate greater than 21.5%.
Nurkic’s absence creates a sizable void for Enes Kanter, Zach Collins and Meyers Leonard. One of the three will likely start. Kanter projects as the replacement unless coach Terry Stotts prefers to keep the second unit intact, and Stotts has been starting Layman ahead of Rodney Hood. Kanter didn’t play in either overtime or the final eight minutes of regulation on Monday; he’s likely a matchup-dependent option.
Leonard has been out of the rotation since Kanter’s addition, and Al-Farouq Aminu could also get spot minutes at center as he did to close the win Monday. Kanter may get the first shot against the Bulls’ Robin Lopez. However, Kanter possesses a team-low -53 Plus/Minus since debuting for the Blazers, and most of those minutes have come against opposing reserves. Moving him to the starting lineup may be detrimental to the team’s outlook, but it’ll benefit Kanter’s fantasy output.
When Nurkic, McCollum and the players no longer on the team have been off the court this season, the Blazers have crafted a -1.1 Net Rating. They are also one game under .500 on the road this season. However, the Bulls are playing on the second night of a back-to-back and could be without Zach LaVine (thigh, knee), Otto Porter (shoulder), Kris Dunn (back) and Lauri Markkanen (illness).
The Bulls have claimed the fourth-worst Defensive Rating (116.0) and second-worst Net Rating (-7.2) since the All-Star break. Stacking the Blazers seems like an optimal strategy, although there is downside if the game gets out of hand.
Photo credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Jusuf Nurkic
