The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
No one at the PG position really stands out on DraftKings, but Kyle Lowry could be worth some consideration on FanDuel. He’s priced at $8,300, giving him a Bargain Rating of 81%. He also owns an excellent matchup against the Cavaliers, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency this season, and Lowry’s 11 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position.
Lowry has seen a noticeable drop in usage after the addition of Kawhi Leonard in the offseason, but Lowry has made up for it by averaging a career-high 10.3 assists per game.
Value
Ryan Arcidiacono has been a nice source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.96 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He remains affordable at $4,500 for Saturday’s contest against the Rockets, giving him a Bargain Rating of 99%. The Rockets have struggled on the defensive end of the court, ranking just 25th in defensive efficiency.
Fast Break
No one at the PG position has been better than Kyrie Irving recently. He’s averaged 1.48 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +5.29 over his past 10 games. He wasn’t needed in the fourth quarter of Friday’s blowout win against the Cavaliers, so he shouldn’t be limited on the second leg of a back-to-back. He would also see some additional offensive responsibilities if Jaylen Brown was ruled out again.
Jeff Teague has seen his minutes fluctuate a bit recently, but he has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. The Timberwolves have a brutal matchup against the Celtics, but their biggest weakness on the defensive end is at PG: Teague owns a strong Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.26. He’s underpriced at $6,000 on DraftKings as evidenced by a Bargain rating of 97%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is in an interesting spot against the Bulls. On one hand, he’s been priced up all the way to $11,900 on DraftKings, making him the most expensive player on the slate by more than $1,000. Chris Paul made his return for the Rockets on Friday, so that feels too expensive.
On the other hand, Paul’s return didn’t have much of an impact on Harden. He still posted a usage rate of 35.6% and an assist rate of 52.2%, resulting in 50.75 DraftKings points in just 27.5 minutes. If Friday’s win over the Spurs had stayed competitive, Harden could’ve been looking at another outing of 70+ fantasy points. He was also owned at an average of just 7.15% (per the Ownership Dashboard), so people are clearly a little scared to pay up for him with Paul back in the lineup. That makes Harden an excellent target in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) against a mediocre Bulls’ defense.
Value
Bogdan Bogdanovic has been an excellent source of value for the Kings recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.21 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. That includes a season-high 38.8 FanDuel points in his last contest, and he’s played at least 30 minutes in three of his past four games. He’s a nice value at $5,700.
Fast Break
The Nets are a very interesting team on Saturday’s slate. They have a plus matchup against the Wizards, who rank sixth in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency this season, and they’re going to be without Joe Harris for the second straight game. The Nets played just nine players in their last contest, which gives them a lot of appeal.
One player who should definitely be on your radar is D’Angelo Russell. He’s averaged an elite 1.23 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and played 45 minutes in Friday’s double-overtime loss to the Grizzlies. He’s currently projected for 31.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which would make him one of the strongest values of the day at $7,200 on DraftKings.
Alec Burks made his debut for the Cavs on Friday, and it looks like he’s going to be a factor in their rotation. He played 26.5 minutes and contributed 34.2 FanDuel points, which makes him an interesting target at $3,600.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant has dominated with Stephen Curry out of the lineup recently, scoring at least 73.75 DraftKings points in each of his past three games. That said, Curry is expected to make his return on Saturday, which puts a major damper on Durant’s fantasy value.
Durant has seen his usage rate drop to just 27.1% when sharing the court with Curry this season, which is drastically lower than his 38.4% usage rate with Curry off the floor.
Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant
That said, it’s possible that Curry is limited in his first game back, so Durant could see a larger workload than usual. The offense has also been drastically better with Curry in the lineup this season, and their implied team total of 118.0 points is the top mark on the slate. He could still be worth some consideration on DraftKings, where his $10,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Value
DeMarre Carroll could be an interesting punt play. He saw 38 minutes in Friday’s double-overtime loss and has averaged 0.73 FanDuel points per minute this season. If he can see close to 30 minutes on Saturday, he has the potential to be one of the best points-per-dollar plays on the slate.
Fast Break
The Wizards’ wing rotation is tough to decipher right now. Kelly Oubre, Otto Porter and Jeff Green have all provided value at times this season, and they’re all in excellent spots against the Nets. Porter missed Friday’s contest but is expected to be back in the lineup, while Green is currently listed as questionable with a back injury. If one of those players were to miss, the other two would see a nice bump in value.
Robert Covington has had a nice transition to the Timberwolves and is coming off back-to-back big games. No one at the position is projected for more than his 38 minutes, and he’s averaged 0.90 FanDuel points per minute this season. He always has appeal for GPPs given his ability to rack up steals on the defensive end of the court.
Power Forward
Stud
Blake Griffin has failed to return value in each of his past three games, but this could be an interesting time to buy low on him. His salary has decreased by $600 from its peak on FanDuel, and his current $9,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%.
The Pistons are in a slight pace-up spot against the Warriors, who have averaged 103.8 possessions per 48 minutes with Curry on the floor this season. They’re also still without Draymond Green, so Griffin’s individual matchup is better than it appears to be on paper.
Value
Marvin Bagley is currently questionable for Saturday’s contest against the Pacers, and his status will be an important one to monitor leading up to lineup lock. If he’s active, he looks like one of the best values of the day at $5,600 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute this season and has played at least 27 minutes in five of his past six games. Unsurprisingly, he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of them.
If he’s out, Nemanja Bjelica could revert to the early-season role we saw him thrive in. He’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s priced at $3,900. Harry Giles would also become an interesting option off the bench. He’s averaged a ridiculous 1.48 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and could step into a decent workload. He’s priced at $3,200 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Fast Break
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson failed to return value on Friday, but the fact that he’s playing big minutes is encouraging for his fantasy prospects. He’s played at least 28 minutes in each of his past three games and is the type of player who is capable of averaging over 1.00 fantasy points per minute.
Victor Oladipo is out for the foreseeable future for the Pacers, which should be a major boost for Domantas Sabonis. He’s seen a usage bump of +4.9% with Oladipo out of the lineup recently and has scored at least 38.0 DraftKings points in six of his past seven games. Unfortunately, Sabonis is questionable for Saturday with a back injury, but he’s in an elite spot if he’s able to suit up: The Kings are playing at the second-fastest pace this season, giving Sabonis an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.00.
Center
Stud
Harden has gotten most of the attention lately for the Rockets, but Clint Capela has been equally impressive. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +9.52 over his past 10 games on DraftKings thanks to an average of 1.22 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Capela is in an excellent spot against the Bulls as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.80, and his $7,800 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Value
Tristan Thompson leads all centers with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel and continues to absolutely crush from a fantasy perspective. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in 10 of his past 12 games, yet his salary has still decreased by $1,000 over the past two games.
Fast Break
Jarrett Allen is an interesting option against the Wizards, who have been crushed on the glass with Dwight Howard out of the lineup this season, and Allen scored 39.4 FanDuel points against them in their first matchup. He’s priced at $6,000 on FanDuel and has averaged 1.07 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: D’Angelo Russell
Photo credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
