The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Steph Curry has flown under-the-radar recently, but he’s in the midst of one of the most ridiculous shooting seasons we’ve ever seen. He’s currently shooting 49.1% from the field, 45.6% from 3-point range, and 91.8% from the free throw line while averaging 29.5 points per game.
There’s only been one other season in the history of the NBA where a player has averaged at least 28 points per game while shooting at least 45% from 3-point range and 90% from the free throw line, and that was done by Curry during his second MVP season.
Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30).
He torched the Nuggets for 31 points in just 29.5 minutes yesterday and is in an appealing spot today vs. the New Orleans Pelicans. They rank sixth in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency, and the Warriors’ resulting implied team total of 124 points is the top mark on the slate by a wide margin.
He leads the point guard position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.25 on FanDuel, where his $10,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%. He also leads the position with 12 Pro Trends.
Value
The Grizzlies will be without Kyle Anderson today vs. the Milwaukee Bucks, which could lead to a few additional minutes for Jevon Carter. He hasn’t exactly crushed when on the court recently, averaging just 0.61 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, but he’s dirt-cheap at just $3,300.
He’s averaged 17.25 DraftKings points per game in the three games where he’s seen at least 20 minutes of playing time, which is all he needs to be a value at his current price tag.
Fast Break
Kyle Lowry has seen a price decrease of $1,100 over the past month on FanDuel, and his current $7,200 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%. Lowry has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.75 with a comparable salary over the past five seasons, including a Plus/Minus of +10.44 in two instances this season (per the Trends tool). He’s an interesting buy-low candidate for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Damian Lillard has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have been the worst team this season in terms of defensive efficiency. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.62 on DraftKings, where Lillard also owns a Bargain Rating of 98%. There’s a lot of blowout risk in targeting the Cavs, but Lillard has plenty of upside if this game stays competitive.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden continues to do some of the most ridiculous things we’ve ever seen on a basketball court. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +13.77 over his past 10 games on DraftKings and is coming off a 77.75-point performance in 34 minutes on Monday vs. the Grizzlies.
He posted an almost unfathomable usage rate of 60.6% in that contest and has averaged an eye-popping 2.07 DraftKings points per minute with Chris Paul, Clint Capela, and Carmelo Anthony all off the court this season.
Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13), Memphis Grizzlies guard Jevon Carter (3).
Eric Gordon is expected to make his return to the lineup today vs. the Brooklyn Nets, but that shouldn’t stop Harden for commanding another massive workload. He’s been priced up to $13,000 on DraftKings and $14,000 on FanDuel, but he can continue to provide value at that salary. There is no safer play for cash games.
Value
No value option at the shooting guard position really jumps off the page at the moment, but Marcus Smart could be worth some consideration on FanDuel. He missed the Celtics’ most recent game with an illness but is expected to play today vs. the Raptors.
He’s averaged 0.84 FanDuel points per minute this season and is projected for 30.2 minutes in our NBA Models, and that combination would make him a nice value at just $4,700.
Fast Break
Most of the people paying up at the position will target Harden on today’s slate — and rightfully so — but there’s no shortage of appealing options at the position:
- Donovan Mitchell – He’s thrived for the shorthanded Jazz recently, averaging 49.95 FanDuel points over his past four games. He remains priced at a discount on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 81%.
- Luka Doncic – He’s been remarkable as a rookie, but his best work has undoubtedly come with Dennis Smith Jr. out of the lineup. He’s currently questionable with an illness for tonight’s contest vs. the Spurs, and Doncic has averaged 46.82 DraftKings points per 36 minute with him out of the lineup this season.
- D’Angelo Russell – He’s coming off a huge game in his last outing and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.66 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s scored at least 43.0 DraftKings points in six of his past eight games, which gives him big upside at just $7,300.
- Klay Thompson – He’s a moderately priced option in the most appealing game of the day and has scored at least 41.5 DraftKings points in three of his past four contests.
Small Forward
Studs
The Bucks won yesterday’s contest vs. the Heat by a comfortable 38-point margin, which resulted in another light workload for Giannis Antetokounmpo. He’s averaged just 33.3 minutes per game this season, which puts him well outside the top 20 this season. That’s really hurt him from a fantasy perspective despite an elite average of 1.70 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
He’s in a tough spot today vs. the Grizzlies, who have played at the slowest pace in the league by a wide margin. Giannis should command virtually no ownership on today’s slate, but he has a big ceiling if this game stays competitive.
Kevin Durant is the more appealing target at the position. The game between the Warriors and Pelicans features an over/under of 241 points, which is one of the highest marks of the entire season.
Pictured: Golden State Warriors forward Kevin Durant (35), Photo Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Durant is also priced at a bit of a discount at $9,800 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%. His 12 Pro Trends are second only to Doncic among small forward-eligible players.
Value
The Rockets’ current center rotation is interesting. They can’t count on Nene for more than 15 minutes a game at the moment, while backup centers Isaiah Hartenstein and Marquese Chriss combined for just 14 total minutes in their last contest. As a result, the Rockets chose to play a really small lineup with P.J. Tucker at center for a good chunk of minutes.
The biggest winner in that situation was Gary Clark, who played more than 26 minutes off the bench. He’s currently projected for 26.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him an appealing value target at just $3,400 on DraftKings. Historically, players with a comparable salary and minute projection have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.84.
Fast Break
Evan Turner has been a solid value on FanDuel recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past seven games. He’s in a great spot today vs. the Cavs, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.15 on FanDuel.
Joe Ingles is worth some consideration on DraftKings, where his $5,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. He’s scored at least 29.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four games and has averaged a solid 0.90 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis hasn’t been quite as good as Harden recently, but he’s been pretty darn close. He’s posted a Plus/Minus of +9.09 over his past 10 games on DraftKings and has averaged 1.80 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Both players possess a ridiculous ceiling, but the biggest difference has been with their floors: Davis has posted three games of 53.5 DraftKings points or less over his past seven games, while Harden hasn’t dipped below 57.75 DraftKings points since Dec. 11.
Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23).
It’s getting to the point where it’s almost impossible to play them together on DraftKings — doing so leaves just an average of $4,200 for your remaining six roster spots — and that safety gives Harden the clear edge for cash games.
That said, the fact that Davis is more than $1,000 cheaper can’t be ignored for GPPs. He’s also in an elite spot vs. the Warriors, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.10. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he owns a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Marcus Morris should see a slight decrease in value with Celtics getting closer to full strength, but he still seems underpriced at $4,900 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 98%, which is the top mark at the position by a significant margin. He’s averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute this season and is currently projected for 29 minutes in our NBA Models.
Fast Break
Montrezl Harrell has been massively productive when on the court recently, averaging 1.30 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his playing time appears to be on the rise. He’s logged at least 29.5 minutes in three of his past four games, which makes him an awesome target at just $7,200 on DraftKings.
Derrick Favors is in a great spot today vs. the Clippers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.90. He should continue to benefit from Utah’s shorthanded rotation, and his $5,300 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Center
Stud
Sticking with the Jazz, it’s hard not to love Rudy Gobert today. He’s been an absolute monster recently, averaging 1.31 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s logged at least 36 minutes in four of his past five contests.
He also owns one of the best matchups of the day, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.18 on DraftKings. Finally, he seems massively underpriced at just $8,500 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Tonight’s slate is loaded with studs and light on value, but Gobert deserves to be treated as a priority target.
Value
Tristan Thompson is coming off 37.5 minutes in his most recent contest, which gives him an optimistic outlook today vs. the Portland Trail Blazers. He’s averaged a stout 1.02 FanDuel points per minute this season, which makes him a strong option at just $6,400.
Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sacramento Kings guard De’Aaron Fox (5), Cleveland Cavaliers center Tristan Thompson (13).
Fast Break
Nikola Vucevic is $400 more expensive than Gobert on DraftKings, but he’s actually $700 cheaper on FanDuel. That could make him an interesting pivot given his average of 1.45 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. Backup center Mo Bamba is also listed as questionable, and his absence could result in a few additional minutes for Vucevic on today’s slate.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Jazz C Rudy Gobert
Photo Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports
