The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a five-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook is the most expensive player on today’s slate and has been an excellent value recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.98 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s in a wonderful spot today vs. the Los Angeles Lakers, who have played at the third-fastest pace this season.
The Thunder have also played at a really fast pace, and their implied team total of 118.5 is the top mark on the slate by a decent margin. Westbrook leads all PGs with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $11,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
There are a ton of value options available today, so Westbrook will likely be one of the highest-owned players on the slate.
Value
The Raptors are going to be without both Kyle Lowry and Kawhi Leonard today vs. the Phoenix Suns, which makes them an immense source of value. Fred VanVleet has seen a team-high usage bump of +5.3% with both players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.94 FanDuel points per minute.
He’s currently projected for 34.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him a steal at just $5,000 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Kemba Walker has been dreadful over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of -5.24 on FanDuel, but he did explode for 50.3 FanDuel points in his most recent contest. He has a great matchup today vs. the Kings, who have played at the second-fastest pace this season, and his salary has decreased by $500 over the past month on FanDuel.
Lonzo Ball is a massive value on DraftKings, where his $6,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s scored at least 39.5 DraftKings points in each of his past two games and is a pretty cheap way to get exposure to what should be one of the best games of the day.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Jimmy Butler has been priced down to just $6,800 on DraftKings, which is pretty crazy for someone who has made the All-Star game in each of the past four seasons.
This is only the 14th time he’s been priced below $7,000 over that time frame, and Butler has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.46 in those contests (per the Trends tool). He’s tough to pass up at that price tag, even in a difficult matchup vs. the Indiana Pacers.
Values
Delon Wright seems likely to replace Lowry in the Raptors’ starting lineup and has averaged 0.93 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s an excellent value at just $4,500 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is also priced at just $4,500 on FanDuel and is coming off 28.3 FanDuel points in his most recent game. He replaced Josh Hart in the starting lineup in that contest and is expected to remain in the starting lineup for today’s matchup vs. the Thunder. He’s the best pure value at the position on FanDuel with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Fast Break
Sticking with the Lakers, Brandon Ingram is tough to pass up at $6,300 on DraftKings. He’s played at least 40 minutes in each of his past two contests, and his current minute projection of 38.5 is the top mark on today’s slate.
That gives him a really appealing floor, given his average of 0.99 DraftKings points per minute with both LeBron and Rondo off the court.
Devin Booker leads all SGs with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $7,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%. He was limited to just 26.5 in his first game back from injury, but the Suns ultimately lost that game by 34 points. He should see a boost in workload today.
Credit: USA Today Sports. Pictured: Devin Booker
Small Forward
Stud
Paul George busted out of his mini-slump in his most recent game, scoring 49.5 DraftKings points vs. the Atlanta Hawks. That said, he did record five steals in that contest, which made up for a pedestrian 6-of-18 shooting night.
Overall, he just doesn’t seem to possess the same upside with Westbrook commanding a higher usage rate recently, which makes George a risky option at his current salary.
If you are going to play him, DraftKings seems like the place to do it: His $9,800 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Value
Normal Powell — one of the top candidates to replace Kawhi in the starting lineup — has been an excellent option recently when given the opportunity to play. He’s averaged 0.83 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has seen a usage bump of +3.1% with both Kawhi and Lowry off the court this season.
Powell is one of the best values of the day at just $3,600 on FanDuel (Bargain Rating of 90%).
Fast Break
T.J. Warren is an appealing buy-low candidate on FanDuel. His salary has decreased by $1,200 over the past month, and his current $5,900 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%. His 11 Pro Trends trail only George’s at the SF position.
Jabari Parker has re-emerged in the Bulls rotation recently, albeit for very minimal playing time. That said, he doesn’t need to play much to potentially pay off his $3,600 salary on DraftKings, given his average of 1.26 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Power Forward
Studs
If you want to target the Raptors at the PF position, you’re going to need to spend up a little bit. That said, Serge Ibaka and Pascal Siakam each own a Bargain Rating of at least 81% on FanDuel, so paying up for one or both is a very reasonable option.
Ibaka has seen a usage bump of +4.4% with Lowry and Leonard off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.08 FanDuel points per minute. He also has the best matchup on the team, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.01, and leads all PFs with 11 Pro Trends.
Siakam hasn’t been quite as effective as Ibaka when playing without Lowry and Leonard, averaging just 0.90 FanDuel points per minute. But he is expected to play slightly more than Ibaka, which makes him a reasonable option $6,700.
Value
There are a ton of value options on today’s slate – particularly on Toronto – but don’t forget about Bobby Portis. He should see a few additional minutes with Wendell Carter Jr. ruled out vs. the Nuggets, and Portis has averaged an elite 1.23 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He has massive upside at his current salary.
Fast Break
Kyle Kuzma deserves some consideration for the top spot at the position on DraftKings, where his $6,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s seen a usage bump of +4.9% with LeBron and Rondo off the court this season, resulting in an average of 36.79 DraftKings points per 36 minutes.
Marvin Williams is one of the better pure values at the position on DraftKings, where his $4,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. He’s averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has an excellent matchup vs. the Kings, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.53.
Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Lakers forward Kyle Kuzma (0).
Center
Studs
Paying up at center seems like a really viable strategy on today’s slate.
Nikola Jokic is the most expensive option on DraftKings, but he’s in an elite spot vs. the Chicago Bulls. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.31 on DraftKings, where he leads all centers with 12 Pro Trends. He’s also a strong value on DraftKings (Bargain Rating of 93%).
Joel Embiid is an even better value on DraftKings, where his $10,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. Unfortunately, he’s currently listed as questionable with a back injury, so it’s entirely possible that he sits out today’s contest vs. the Pacers.
Embiid is a strong option if he’s active – he’s averaged a stout 1.74 DraftKings points per minute over the past month – and Butler and Ben Simmons would see a big boost in value if he’s ultimately ruled out.
Value
Tyson Chandler replaced JaVale McGee in the starting lineup in the Lakers’ last game and ultimately logged 26 minutes vs. the Bulls. He’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which makes him a strong potential value at just $3,500 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
DeAndre Ayton has seen a slight reduction in playing time recently, but he’s made up for it by increasing his production to 1.24 DraftKings points per minute. He has a difficult matchup vs. the Raptors, but his $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Raptors F Pascal Siakam
Photo Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
