The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a three-game slate starting at 6 p.m. ET
Point Guard
Stud
Kemba Walker is the highest-priced point guard by a pretty significant margin on FanDuel, but he hasn’t been worth his salary recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -7.78 over his past 10 games, and his production has decreased to just 1.16 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
He’s in a difficult spot today vs. the Indiana Pacers, who rank second in the league in defensive efficiency this season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.87 on FanDuel, and the Hornets’ implied team total of 104.75 is the lowest mark on the slate. That said, Walker could make some sense on DraftKings, where his $8,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Lou Williams remains out for the Los Angeles Clippers, which should result in a larger workload for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He dominated in his last game, scoring 42.1 FanDuel points in 42.5 minutes vs. the Golden State Warriors, and he’s averaged 30.3 minutes per game in five contests with Williams out of the lineup this season. He’s almost impossible to fade at just $3,600 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 99%.
Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LA Clippers guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2).
Fast Break
Jeff Teague has averaged 1.10 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has an excellent matchup today vs. the Phoenix Suns. They currently rank 28th in defensive efficiency, giving Teague an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.66 on FanDuel.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Suns have the potential to be pretty shorthanded on today’s slate. Deandre Ayton and Richaun Holmes have both already been ruled out, while Jamal Crawford is currently listed as questionable. That should give Devin Booker a boost in value vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1).
He’s averaged a team-high 1.31 DraftKings points per minute with Ayton off the court this season and played 37.5 minutes in their last game despite losing by 20 points. He leads the position in Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and his $8,100 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Value
Tyrone Wallace looks like an interesting value option for the Clippers. He’s priced at just $3,100 on DraftKings but is currently projected for 25.5 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.90 and a Consistency Rating of 60.0% (per the Trends tool). He allows you to roster virtually whomever you want with the rest of your lineup.
Fast Break
DeMar DeRozan was a surprise late scratch in the Spurs last game but is currently listed as probable for today’s contest vs. the Clippers. He’s a nice value on FanDuel, where his $8,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%.
Nicolas Batum has been a boom-or-bust option recently, but he has scored at least 29.25 DraftKings points in two of his past four games. That kind of potential gives him an excellent ceiling at just $4,500 on DraftKings.
Small Forward
Stud
There really is no true “stud” at the small forward position on today’s slate. The highest-priced option on FanDuel is T.J. Warren at just $6,200, and he’s definitely worth consideration at that price tag. His salary has decreased by -$900 over the past month, and he also leads the position with 11 Pro Trends. He figures to see a slight boost in playing time and production for the shorthanded Suns, who will likely play smaller than usual.
Value
Rudy Gay exploded for 35.3 FanDuel points in his last contest and is underpriced today at just $5,300. He’s averaged a stout 1.05 FanDuel points per minute this season and is currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models. His Bargain Rating of 86% on FanDuel is also the top mark at the small forward position.
Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Antonio Spurs small forward Rudy Gay (22).
Fast Break
Mikal Bridges is another potential source of value on the Phoenix Suns. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games on FanDuel and has scored at least 23.7 FanDuel points in each of his past two. He’s priced at just $3,900 on FanDuel.
Tyreke Evans has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games and is underpriced at just $3,800 on DraftKings. That said, he hasn’t displayed much of a ceiling in those contests, scoring 27 fantasy points or few in each.
Power Forward
Stud
The power forward position is one of the most talent-rich on today’s slate. It starts at the top with LaMarcus Aldridge, who is in an elite spot vs. the Clippers. They’ve struggled with opposing big men all season, giving Aldridge an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.99 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.15 over his past 10 games on DraftKings.
Value
Quincy Acy will likely be asked to absorb a bunch of minutes for the shorthanded Suns’ frontcourt today. He’s currently projected for 25 in our NBA Models, which would theoretically make him a steal at the absolute minimum on FanDuel. However, he has averaged a paltry 0.41 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he’s not necessarily guaranteed to produce given an increase in playing time.
Fast Break
The Clippers feature a pair of strong power forward targets in Tobias Harris and Montrezl Harrell. Harris has been arguably the Clippers best player this season, averaging a career-best 20.9 points per game. He’s seen a usage bump of +1.7% with Williams off the court this season and will likely be asked to carry more of the scoring burden with him out of the lineup.
Pictured: Montrezl Harrell, Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA Today Sports
Harrell isn’t as good of a scorer, but he makes up for it with his peripheral statistics. He goes non-stop when on the court, which allows him to pile up rebounds, blocks, and steals. He’s averaged an elite 1.27 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the second-highest mark at the position. His $6,900 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
The Pacers’ frontcourt is back to full strength, which means that Domantas Sabonis will likely be an afterthought on today’s slate. That said, he’s averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he can do a lot of damage today vs. the Charlotte Hornets. They’ve been pretty weak against opposing centers this season, giving Sabonis an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.24.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns is easily the top stud to pay up for on today’s slate. He’s averaged a stout 1.64 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and is in an elite spot vs. the Phoenix Suns. They’ve already been pretty awful against centers to begin with — Towns owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.15 on DraftKings — and they’ll be without their two top centers today.
There’s simply no one left on their roster who can match the size and athleticism of Towns, and the sheer volume of value options available makes Towns very easy to pay up for. The only real concern is the blowout potential: The Wolves are currently listed as 12.5-point favorites.
Value
Willie Hernangomez could be an interesting contrarian target if you’re looking to fade Towns on FanDuel. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two games, including 36.7 FanDuel points two games ago vs. the Kings. He’s priced at just $4,000, giving him a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Fast Break
Outside of Town and Hernangomez, the center options are pretty thin. That said, Myles Turner could be worth some consideration, especially on DraftKings at just $6,800. He’s been a strong value over the past month, averaging a Plus/Minus of +2.20.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Timberwolves C Karl-Anthony Towns
Photo Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
