The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features an eight-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET
Point Guard
Stud
Kawhi Leonard will miss his second straight game for the Toronto Raptors, which increases the appeal for Kyle Lowry. He played 39.5 minutes in his last game without Leonard and has averaged a team-high 43.8 DraftKings points per game with Leonard out of the lineup. He has a brutal matchup vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, who play at the slowest pace in the league by a significant margin, but Lowry is simply too cheap at $7,400 on DraftKings.
Value
The Mavericks have the potential to be pretty thin in the backcourt for today’s matchup vs. the Indiana Pacers. Wesley Matthews is currently listed as questionable, while Dennis Smith Jr. and JJ Barea have already been ruled out. That could result in a large role for Jalen Brunson, who has been productive when given the chance to play this season. He’s averaged 0.79 FanDuel points per minute and is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Kyrie Irving may be doing some weird things in the media right now, but he’s been killing it on the basketball court. He’s posted a Plus/Minus of at least +10.49 in each of his past three games on FanDuel and is coming off 62.9 FanDuel points in his most recent game. He has one of the best possible matchups today vs. the Atlanta Hawks, resulting in a Plus/Minus of +2.00.
Pictured: Boston Celtics guard Kyrie Irving (11), Photo Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Kris Dunn has a seen a -$1,400 price decrease over the past month on DraftKings, which makes him an interesting buy low target vs. the Miami Heat. His current $5,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. The Heat are also a decent matchup, giving Dunn an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.32.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is approaching unseen territory in NBA DFS. He’s been priced up to $14,300 on FanDuel and $13,400 on DraftKings, both of which are among the highest we’ve seen over the past five seasons (per the Trends tool). That said, the salary is 100% warranted.
Harden has averaged a Plus/Minus of +15.40 over his past 10 games on DraftKings and has scored at least 70.75 DraftKings points in each of his past five games. He continues to dominate the ball regardless of who he’s sharing the court with, which gives him a ridiculously high floor every time he takes the court.
He’s in an excellent spot today vs. the Los Angeles Lakers, who have played at the third-fastest pace this season. The Rockets’ resulting implied team total of 117.5 ranks second on the slate. There’s no reason to consider fading Harden in any format or on any site at the moment.
Value
Marcus Smart is a nice value across the industry for today’s matchup vs. the Hawks. He’s averaged a solid 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this season and is currently projected for 31.2 minutes in our NBA Models. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.73 and is a cheap way to get exposure to one of the best matchups of the day.
Fast Break
Luka Doncic has point guard and small forward eligibility on DraftKings and shooting guard eligibility on FanDuel, but he’s a great option today regardless of where you roster him. He’s more appealing on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%, and he leads all players with a whopping 15 Pro Trends. Doncic has been at his best this season with Smith Jr. and Barea out of the lineup, averaging 47.63 DraftKings points per 36 minutes.
Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Orlando Magic forward Jonathan Isaac (1), Dallas Mavericks forward Luka Doncic (77).
Luke Kennard has had the opportunity to play a few more minutes for the Pistons recently and has not disappointed, scoring at least 24.5 DraftKings points in each of his past two games. He’s an appealing value option in a great matchup vs. the Sacramento Kings.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the ultimate contrarian target on today’s slate. He should have minimal ownership, with most people choosing to pay up for Harden instead. Giannis doesn’t possess nearly the same floor as Harden, but he still possesses an elite ceiling. Giannis is also more than $2,500 cheaper than Harden on DraftKings, and his $10,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Value
On the other side of the same matchup, Jonathan Isaac has played at least 32.5 minutes in each of his past two games. He’s priced at just $3,700 on DraftKings and has averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute this season, which makes him a strong value option for cash games.
Fast Break
Gary Harris has struggled with injuries for the majority of the season, and his salary has dropped to just $4,900 on FanDuel as a result. That represents a decrease of -$1,300 over the past month, which makes this an excellent opportunity to buy low on him.
Pictured above: Nuggets SG Gary Harris, Photo Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
His playing time should start to increase as he gets further removed from his injuries, and he owns an elite matchup today vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers. They rank dead last in defensive efficiency this season, and the Nuggets’ implied team total of 118.25 ranks first on the slate.
Justise Winslow has started to put it all together in his fourth NBA season. He’s been particularly strong over his past four games, averaging 35.9 FanDuel points per game, and he’s averaged 1.12 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s a nice target on FanDuel, where his $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%.
Power Forward
Stud
Blake Griffin is in arguably his best spot of the entire season today vs. the Kings. For starters, Andre Drummond has been ruled out with a concussion, and Griffin has seen a massive boost in production with Drummond off the court this season. He’s unsurprisingly seen a usage bump of +5.8% and has also increased his rebound rate by +3.8%, resulting in an average of 1.39 DraftKings points per minute.
The Kings are also an elite matchup. They play at the second fastest pace in the league and rank just 26th in team rebound rate, giving Griffin an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.35 on DraftKings. His 13 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position, and his $9,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Marucs Morris is another way to get some cheap exposure to the Celtics on FanDuel. He’s pried at just $4,800, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%. He’s averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute this season and is currently projected for 26 minutes, which should give him a good chance at returning value vs. the Hawks.
Fast Break
Serge Ibaka has been the biggest beneficiary with Leonard out of the lineup this season, seeing a team-high usage bump of +6.4%. That’s translated to an average Plus/Minus of +8.7 in those contests, which makes him an appealing option despite the tough matchup vs. the Grizzlies.
Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Atlanta Hawks forward John Collins (20).
John Collins has been one of the most reliable options at the position recently, posting a Consistency Rating of 91% over the past month on DraftKings. He’s averaged 39.5 DraftKings points per game over that time frame, yet his salary has actually decreased by -$100.
Center
Stud
Nikola Vucevic has started to heat up again, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games on DraftKings. That includes 50.25 DraftKings points in his most recent contest, but his salary has dropped by close to $1000 dollars for today’s contest vs. the Bucks. It’s a much tougher matchup – Vucevic owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.78 – but his current $8,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. His 15 Pro Trends are also tied with Doncic for the most on the slate regardless of position.
Value
It’s hard to look past Zaza Pachulia at $3,300 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel. He will likely enter the starting lineup in place of Drummond and has averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s also in an excellent spot vs. the Kings, who have been crushed by opposing centers all season. Pachulia will help you jam Harden and another high-priced option into your lineup, but that will likely make him one of the highest-owned players on the slate.
Fast Break
Al Horford remains affordable at just $6,000 on DraftKings and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.06 vs. the Atlanta Hawks. He’s been up-and-down recently – he’s scored 24.25, 38.75, 16, 40.25, and 12.5 DraftKings points in his past five contests – but he has appeal given his matchup.
Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Boston Celtics center Al Horford (42).
Hassan Whiteside always carries a lot of bust potential, but he also has a pretty high ceiling today vs. the Chicago Bulls. They’ve given up a lot of big games to opposing centers this season, giving Whiteside an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.19. He doesn’t need a lot of playing time to do damage given his average of 1.39 FanDuel points per minute this season.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Pistons Piston forward Blake Griffin
Photo Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
