The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook is coming off a disappointing performance in his last contest, posting a Plus/Minus of -8.48 on DraftKings against the Spurs. That said, there were some positives in that contest. He continues to improve upon his low usage rate (by his standards) from the beginning of the season, but his overall numbers were limited by making just 37.5% of his shots from the field. He also played just 32.75 minutes, which is far lower than his current minute projection of 36.9.
Westbrook has an elite matchup against the Hawks, who have played at the fastest pace in the league this season. The Thunders’ resulting implied team total of 121.5 is the top mark on the slate. Westbrook also has an excellent individual matchup against Trae Young, who ranks 472nd out of 474 qualifiers in Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM).
Westbrook leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings and offers the highest ceiling on the slate.
Value
Darren Collison and Cory Joseph are both listed as questionable against the Suns, but both have been playing through their injury designations recently. They’re in excellent spots with the Suns currently ranking 28th in defensive efficiency.
Of the duo, Joseph carries the most intrigue at $3,300 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need to play much to potentially pay off his salary.
Fast Break
Jeremy Lin has been downgraded to doubtful against the Thunder, which could result in a few additional minutes for Young. He’s averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his $6,200 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 93%. The Thunder do rank first in defensive efficiency, but they’ve also played at the fourth-fastest pace this season.
Kris Dunn is one of the better pure values at the position on FanDuel, where his $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 60%. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games and has an excellent matchup against the Lakers.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Victor Oladipo is an interesting buy-low target against the Suns. He’s struggled recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -4.37 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, causing his salary to decrease by more than $1,000 since its peak.
Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Victor Oladipo
He’s currently priced at $7,800 on DraftKings and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.27 over the past two seasons with a comparable salary (per our Trends tool).
Value
DeAndre Bembry could be forced into a large workload for the Hawks on Tuesday. Lin is doubtful, so Bembry will likely see minutes at backup PG in addition to his usual role on the wing. He’s averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute this season, which makes him an appealing value option given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
Kevin Huerter should also continue to see big minutes for the Hawks and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.64 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s been even better recently, scoring at least 31.5 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. He’s also priced at a discount on DraftKings, where his $4,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Fast Break
Zach LaVine was limited to just 29.5 minutes in his most recent contest, but that didn’t stop him from getting up 21 shot attempts against the Jazz. He should see more minutes in a much better matchup against the Lakers, and his $6,800 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%. He has huge upside.
Andrew Wiggins has looked rejuvenated under new head coach Ryan Saunders, averaging 38.7 minutes and a 28.1% usage rate over three games. He has a great floor at his salary across the industry given his current workload.
Small Forward
Stud
The SF position is loaded at the top, starting with Giannis Antetokounmpo. He’s been excellent on a per-minute basis recently, averaging 1.68 DraftKings points per minute, but that hasn’t exactly translated to much success: He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -2.41 over that time frame.
He has one of the most volatile minute ranges in the league, playing as many as 39.5 minutes and as few as 19.5 minutes over his past five games. That gives him a wide range of outcomes, which makes him best suited for GPPs.
Paul George might be the preferred target for cash games. His salary has decreased by more than $1,000 over the past week on DraftKings, and his current $7,800 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.70 with a comparable salary this season, which makes him an appealing option. He also has an elite matchup against the Hawks, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.61.
Value
No value option really jumps off the page at the SF position, but Gary Harris is an interesting option at $5,000 on FanDuel. He’s currently listed as questionable and will likely be on some sort of minute limit if he is active, but Harris can still potentially pay off his current salary even if he doesn’t crack 30 minutes.
Harris has averaged 0.87 FanDuel points per minute this season, and his current salary on FanDuel results in a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Fast Break
Brandon Ingram has SF eligibility on FanDuel and PG/SG eligibility on DraftKings, and he’s an appealing target regardless of where you choose to roster him.
Ingram is coming off 40 minutes in his most recent contest and should continue to benefit from the absence of LeBron James and Rajon Rondo. Ingram has seen a usage bump of +2.2% with both players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.99 DraftKings points per minute.
Myles Turner has missed each of the past four games with a shoulder injury and is currently listed as questionable. His absence would give a boost to Thaddeus Young, who has scored at least 30.25 DraftKings points in four of his past five games. He’s more appealing on DraftKings given his SF eligibility and his Bargain Rating of 86%.
Power Forward
Stud
John Collins is one of the best values of the day on DraftKings, where his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s been dominant recently, scoring at least 41.25 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and he’s averaged 40.2 DraftKings points per game over the past month.
Collins leads the position with 13 Pro Trends and should be a staple in all formats.
Value
Sticking with the Hawks, Omari Spellman started for the injured Dewayne Dedmon in their most recent contest and contributed 31.0 DraftKings points in just under 30 minutes. Spellman might not start against the Thunder – Alex Len could draw the start vs. a traditional center – but Spellman should retain a large role even if he comes off the bench.
Spellman is currently projected for 28.4 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season, which makes him one of the stronger plays on the slate from a points per dollar perspective.
Fast Break
Lauri Markkanen is in a nice spot against the Lakers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.41 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season and is fairly priced across the industry.
Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Lakers forward Kyle Kuzma (0).
Kyle Kuzma is one of the better values at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 75% and possesses a huge ceiling for the shorthanded Lakers. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 36.0% in two of his past three games and has averaged 41.6 FanDuel points in those contests.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid went through a rough patch after the Jimmy Butler trade, but he’s figured things out recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.01 on DraftKings over his past 10 games, yet his salary has still decreased by $600 over the past month. He’s currently priced at just $10,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Embiid is in a good spot against the Timberwolves, who have been poor defensively with Robert Covington off the court this season. The 76ers’ implied team total of 118.75 ranks second on the slate, and Embiid owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.48 against Karl-Anthony Towns.
Value
JaVale McGee has seen a major drop off after a torrid start to the season, but he’s in an elite spot against the Bulls. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.69 on FanDuel ranks first on the slate, so this seems like an excellent time to buy low.
Fast Break
Steven Adams is another center in a great spot. In addition to playing at a fast pace and playing poor defensively, the Hawks also rank just 20th in team rebound rate. That’s a great combination for big men, and Adams’ Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.93 on FanDuel is unsurprisingly one of the top marks on the slate.
On the other side of the same matchup, Alex Len is an appealing option for GPPs. He’s averaged 1.15 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and I’m expecting him to enter the starting lineup to try and combat the size of Adams on the interior.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Hawks PF John Collins
Photo Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
