The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The Warriors’ offense has been absolutely rolling recently after a somewhat slow start to the season. They’ve gone 8-1 over their past nine games, averaging an absolutely ridiculous 131.6 points per game over that time frame. They’ve also reclaimed the top spot in the Western Conference and will be adding five-time All-Star DeMarcus Cousins into their rotation for tonight’s contest vs. the Los Angeles Clippers. The rest of the league should be shaking in their boots.
Steph Curry has unsurprisingly been a huge part of the Warriors’ recent success, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.63 on DraftKings over his past 10 games. He’s in a decent spot today vs. the Clippers. They’ve played at the ninth-fastest pace this season, and the Warriors’ resulting implied team total of 124.25 is the top mark on the slate by a comfortable margin.
Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant
Curry will undoubtedly lose some shot attempts to Cousins in the long term, but Cousins should be pretty limited in his first game back from a gruesome injury. Head coach Steve Kerr has also started staggering his rotations so that Cousins should see the majority of his playing time with Curry and Kevin Durant off the court.
Value
Jeff Teague has struggled mightily over his past two games, scoring just 17.75 DraftKings points in each. That said, he’s in an excellent spot to right the ship tonight vs. the San Antonio Spurs. They’ve struggled with opposing point guards for the majority of the season, giving Teague one of the best individual matchups at the position. His salary has also decreased pretty substantially across the industry over the past week, which makes this a nice buy-low opportunity.
Fast Break
Collin Sexton has been a pretty nice value recently on DraftKings, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.29 over his past four games. He’s averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him a decent option at $4,500 on DraftKings.
Damian Lillard is currently dealing with a hand injury, but that didn’t stop him from scoring 33 points and handing out six assists in his most recent contest. He’s in an elite spot today vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, who rank fifth in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency, and his $8,600 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Donovan Mitchell has started each of the past four games at point guard for the Utah Jazz, and the early returns have been fantastic. The Jazz have gone 4-0 in those contests, and Mitchell has averaged 49.31 DraftKings points per game.
He has an excellent matchup today vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have been the worst defensive team in the league by a considerable margin this season. The Jazz are currently implied for 115.25 points, which represents an increase of roughly seven points when compared to their season average (108.3). That said, there is some blowout concern: The Jazz are 15.5-point favorites, so there’s a decent chance that Mitchell sees a few less minutes in this contest.
Photo Credit: Russell Isabella-USA Today Sports, Pictured: Donovan Mitchell
Value
No one at the position is projected for more minutes than Andrew Wiggins on today’s slate. He’s seemed rejuvenated under new head coach Ryan Saunders, averaging 37.56 DraftKings points over his past four games. That number is a bit inflated — he scored 64.5 DraftKings points in Saunders’ first game — but he scored at least 28.75 DraftKings points in each of his first three games before being limited to just 27 minutes in his last outing. He’s been priced down to just $6,000 on DraftKings for today’s matchup vs. the Spurs, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Fast Break
D’Angelo Russell has started to put it all together in his fourth NBA season, averaging a career-high 35.45 DraftKings points per game. He’s been even better recently, averaging 36.2 DraftKings points per game over the past month and a Plus/Minus of +4.44 over his past 10 games. He has big upside at his current price tag across the industry.
Kyle Korver doesn’t offer much in terms of upside, but he has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games on FanDuel. His current $4,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%, so he’s a viable option for cash games.
Small Forward
Stud
There’s a huge gap at the small forward position on today’s slate between Kevin Durant and everybody else. He’s the most expensive option at the position by a margin of $3,400 on FanDuel, which should make him an extremely popular option.
That said, he hasn’t been particularly good recently from a fantasy perspective, averaging a Plus/Minus of -2.05 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. However, he has seen reduced minutes in a lot of those contests and has averaged 54.8 FanDuel points in the past three games where he’s seen at least 31 minutes. Ultimately, his fantasy viability comes down to whether or not you think the Clippers can keep this game competitive. The Warriors are currently listed as seven-point favorites despite playing on the road.
Value
For better or worse, the Blazers are stuck with Evan Turner. The numbers suggest they’re much better when playing without him — they have a net rating of zero with Turner on the court vs. +4.2 with Turner off the court — but that hasn’t stopped Terry Stotts from playing him consistent minutes.
Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Portland Trail Blazers guard Evan Turner (1), Sacramento Kings guard Bogdan Bogdanovic (8).
Despite his flaws in real life, he’s actually a pretty good fantasy asset, averaging 0.80 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his past 10 games on FanDuel and would likely see a bump in playing time if Moe Harkless is unable to suit up (he’s currently listed as questionable).
Fast Break
Rudy Gay was limited to just 22.5 minutes in his most recent contest, but that number should increase as he gets further removed from the injury that caused him to miss five games. He’s averaged 1.05 FanDuel points per minute this season, and his $5,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Danilo Gallinari owns 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings, which trails only Durant’s 12 at the small forward position. He’s increased his fantasy production recently, averaging 1.08 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.97 over that time frame. He scored 46.25 DraftKings points in his game vs. the Warriors, and his $6,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis has elevated his already elite level of play recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.45 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s scored at least 67.25 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, including at least 72 DraftKings points in each of his past two.
This is his first matchup vs. the Blazers this season, but it doesn’t seem like anyone on the planet can slow him down right now. He’s also one of the best pure values on DraftKings, where his $11,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
It seems like a day to pay up at the power forward position, but one exception on FanDuel could be Rodions Kurucs. He’s played at least 28 minutes in four of his past five contests and has scored at least 22.8 FanDuel points in each of them. He’s currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models and is very reasonably priced at just $4,400.
Fast Break
There are a host of strong power forward options to considering paying up for in addition to Davis, and each one looks like a value on DraftKings:
Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Detroit Pistons forward Blake Griffin (23).
- Blake Griffin — $8,700 (98% Bargain Rating) — He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends and destroyed the Heat for 55.75 DraftKings points in their first meeting this season
- LaMarcus Aldridge — $7,600 (90% Bargain Rating) — He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.27 over his past 10 games and has increased his fantasy production to 1.22 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
- Montrezl Harrell — $7,200 (95% Bargain Rating) — He’s averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has an elite Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.73 vs. the Warriors. His skill set suits this matchup better than the other center options on the Clippers’ roster, so he could see a few additional minutes as well.
- Aaron Gordon — $6,400 (95% Bargain Rating) — He’s scored at least 37.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four games and has seen a price decrease of $500 over the past month. He has big upside at his current salary.
Center
Stud
Sticking with the Magic, Nikola Vucevic is in an absolute smash spot vs. the Brooklyn Nets. They’ve given up huge games to opposing centers all season, giving Vucevic an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.36 on FanDuel.
Vucevic has feasted on bad teams this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.08 on FanDuel when facing a team in the bottom 20th percentile in terms of Opponent Plus/Minus (per the Trends tool). He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and his 68% Bargain Rating makes him one of the better values at the position as well.
Value
The Cavs’ frontcourt is an absolute mess at the moment. Tristan Thompson has already been ruled out for today’s contest vs. the Jazz, and he’ll join Larry Nance Jr., Kevin Love, and John Henson on the sidelines. That leaves a lot of potential playing time for Ante Zizic, who has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s priced at just $3,700 on DraftKings and will likely be one of the highest-owned players on the entire slate.
Fast Break
Karl-Anthony Towns deserves some consideration for the top center spot on DraftKings, where his $9,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. His matchup vs. the Spurs isn’t nearly as good as Vucevic’s — it results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.07 — but Towns has posted an average Plus/Minus of +10.54 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s averaged an elite 1.59 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the second-highest mark on today’s slate.
Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Toronto Raptors forward Kawhi Leonard (2) attempts a shot against Brooklyn Nets center Jarrett Allen (31).
Jarrett Allen has played at least 33 minutes in each of his past two games, which makes him an appealing option at just $6,100 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and Allen has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Magic C Nikola Vucevic
Photo Credit: Bill Streicher-USA Today Sports
