The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a four-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook fell one assist shy of a triple-double in Monday’s win over the Knicks. He was limited to only 28.5 minutes, but he should return to his normal workload against the Trail Blazers. The Thunder are just 5.5-point favorites at home as of writing (see live odds here), and their implied team total of 116.5 ranks third on the slate. He’s a particularly strong value on DraftKings, where his $11,000 comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Westbrook owns the highest ceiling projection on the slate regardless of position, while his 12 Pro Trends are tied for third.
Value
Lou Williams is expected to return to the lineup on Tuesday, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still significantly underpriced at $3,900. He likely won’t see as many minutes as he has in his past two games, but he’s still projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with a comparable salary and minute projection have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.45 on FanDuel (per our Trends tool).
Fast Break
Jeff Teague was limited to 23.5 minutes in his last game and sat out the duration of the fourth quarter. That was likely due to an illness he was dealing with, but he’s not on the injury report for Tuesday’s game against the Suns. It’s an excellent matchup — the Suns currently rank 28th in defensive efficiency — and gives Teague an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.99 on DraftKings.
Teague has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he has solid upside at $5,900 if he returns to his normal workload.
Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Damian Lillard
Damian Lillard leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $8,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. That’s an extremely cheap price tag for a player of Lillard’s caliber, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.19 with a comparable salary.
Kawhi Leonard is set to miss his third straight game for rest purposes, which increases the fantasy value of Kyle Lowry. Lowry has dominated in games without Leonard this season, averaging 42.79 DraftKings points per game and a +5.6 Plus/Minus. He’d be tough to pass up at $7,600 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 93%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The SG position is a bit thin on this slate, but Devin Booker definitely deserves some consideration at the top.
The Suns will likely be without Deandre Ayton for the second straight game, which will likely result in a few additional shot attempts for Booker. He’s averaged 1.14 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel. He’s also priced at a bit of a discount at $7,900, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Andrew Wiggins has been a disappointment recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past four games. That said, he’s shot just 34.4% from the field and 50% from the free-throw line over that time frame, which makes him an excellent candidate for some positive regression.
He’s in an excellent spot against the Suns, and the Timberwolves’ implied team total of 117.75 ranks second on the slate. Wiggins has been priced down to $5,800 on DraftKings and $6,100 on FanDuel, so this is a nice opportunity to buy low on him.
Fast Break
Luka Doncic has been fantastic recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.22 over his past 10 games. However, we should probably temper our expectations with him on this slate. Dennis Smith Jr. is returning to the lineup after missing each of the past six games, and Doncic has seen a decrease to his usage and assist rate when sharing the court with DSJ this season.
Buddy Hield is one of the best pure values of the day on FanDuel, where his $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s not in a particularly good spot against the Raptors — he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.21 — but he has a huge ceiling at his current price tag.
Small Forward
Studs
Most of the attention at the position will be focused on Paul George with Leonard unavailable. He’s coming off 44.8 FanDuel points in just 30.5 minutes on Monday against the Knicks and leads the position in Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Value
The Suns have a trio of interesting SF options on this slate.
T.J. Warren is the most expensive option and likely carries the highest ceiling against the Timberwolves. Mikal Bridges is the cheapest option of the bunch and has averaged a solid 0.74 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. Kelly Oubre has been the best value of the trio recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +8.43 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s also seen a usage bump of +2.1% with Ayton off the court and has averaged 0.98 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Harrison Barnes might be the least exciting player to roster in NBA DFS, but he has posted a 85% Consistency Rating on FanDuel over the past month. He’s coming off an awful game, so he could also see reduced ownership against the Clippers.
Power Forward
Stud
Danilo Gallinari remains out for the Clippers, and Tobias Harris has seen the biggest bump in fantasy value with Gallo off the court this season. He’s averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute in that situation and has averaged 50.13 DraftKings points in two games without Gallinari this season.
Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tobias Harris
Harris leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he’s a slightly better value at $8,100.
Value
It could be time to start targeting Marvin Bagley again. He’s been pretty quiet since returning from an injury that caused him to miss 11 games, but he started the second half of Saturday’s game against the Pistons. Nemanja Bjelica has seen a drastic reduction in playing time recently, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him fall out of the rotation soon. Bagley has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can do some damage if given the chance to play extended minutes.
Harry Giles is also someone you can consider for the Kings. He rarely sees more than 18 minutes of playing time but has averaged 1.1 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s also much more affordable that Bagley at $3,700 on DraftKings and $3,600 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Serge Ibaka has seen the largest usage bump with Leonard off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.29 DraftKings points per minute. He’s also in an elite spot against the Kings as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.05 on DraftKings. He’s one of the best values of the day at $5,900, giving him a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Montrezl Harrell is currently projected for 29.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which gives him big upside at his current salary on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.78 vs. the Dallas Mavericks.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has been a fantasy monster recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.14 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s been even better over the past month thanks to an average of 1.66 FanDuel points per minute and scored 61.0 FanDuel points in his most recent contest against the Suns.
Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Karl-Anthony Towns
He faces the Suns again on Tuesday, who have struggled with opposing centers for the duration of the season. Towns owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.32 on FanDuel, where his 75% Bargain Rating is the top mark at the position.
Value
Dragan Bender has emerged from the depths of the Suns’ rotation recently given the injuries to Ayton and Richaun Holmes. Bender started their most recent contest and was extremely productive from a fantasy perspective, tallying 30.5 DraftKings points in 29.5 minutes. He will likely draw the start again on Tuesday, which makes him one of the most appealing value options on the slate.
Fast Break
DeAndre Jordan facing the Clippers might not count as a true #RevengeGame, but it’s an elite spot nonetheless. They’ve been crushed by opposing centers this season, giving Jordan an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.24. He’s a strong option at $6,400 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Willie Cauley-Stein and Steven Adams are two other centers that could be worth some tournament consideration on DraftKings, where each player owns a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Cauley-Stein has the better matchup vs. the Raptors, but Adams might present more value. He’s seen a price decrease of -$1,200 over the past month and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.85 with a comparable salary this season.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Raptors PG Kyle Lowry
Photo Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
