The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Ben Simmons has been awful from a fantasy perspective recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -5.16 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. That said, his salary has decreased by $1,600 over the past month, which makes this the perfect time to buy low on him.
Joel Embiid is expected to miss Monday’s contest against the Pelicans, and Simmons has averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.8 in six games without Embiid this season. He’s coming off 52.25 DraftKings points in his most recent contest, and the 76ers’ implied team total of 120.25 ranks third on the slate. Simmons is a particularly strong value on DraftKings, where his $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Delon Wright has been priced up to $5,300 on FanDuel but remains extremely affordable at $3,800 on DraftKings. He’s been an awesome fantasy asset recently, posting a Plus/Minus of at least +11.55 in three of his past four games. He also a strong matchup against the Lakers, who have played at the fourth-fastest pace in the league this season, which puts the Grizzlies in the largest pace up spot of the day.
Fast Break
The Bucks will likely be without Giannis Antetokounmpo , which increases the appeal of both Eric Bledsoe and Malcolm Brogdon.
Bledsoe has seen a usage bump of +4.8% with Giannis off the court this season, resulting in a whopping 1.46 DraftKings points per minute. Bledsoe has also averaged 39.75 DraftKings points and a +8.4 Plus/Minus in four games without Giannis this season, making him an elite target at $6,400 on DraftKings. Brogdon doesn’t offer the same upside but is slightly cheaper across the industry and is a suitable alternative.
Goran Dragic returned from a long injury absence in his last game but was ultimately limited to just two FanDuel points in 16 minutes. That said, his $4,200 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he should see more playing time in a great matchup against the Suns. He’s averaged 0.89 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need to play much to potentially pay off his reduced salary.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden was forced to sit out Saturday’s win over the Warriors but has been upgraded to probable for today’s contest against the Hawks. It’s a dream spot: The Hawks rank first in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency this season, and the Rockets’ implied team total of 123.0 ranks first on the slate.
Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: James Harden
Harden has historically crushed in games with a comparable implied team total, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.32 on DraftKings (per our Trends tool). His fantasy production has decreased with Chris Paul returning to the lineup, but Harden’s salary has decreased by $2,300 over the past month on DraftKings. His current $11,400 salary is very reasonable given the matchup and results in a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Value
Kent Bazemore has been an excellent contributor on a per-minute basis this season, averaging 1.03 FanDuel points per minute. He’s also played at least 32.5 minutes in each of his past two games. Kevin Huerter will return to the starting lineup against the Rockets but is expected to be limited to just 20 minutes of playing time. That should still leave enough minutes for Bazemore to pay off his current salary, especially with Taurean Prince ruled out for personal reasons.
Fast Break
The Bulls are an interesting team to target. Chicago will likely be without Kris Dunn and Otto Porter, who are both listed as doubtful. Zach LaVine stands to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of their absence, as he’s seen a usage bump of +4.5% with both players off the court since Porter was acquired from the Wizards. LaVine leads the position with 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Caris LeVert has a nice matchup against the Spurs, who have been an absolute dumpster fire defensively on the road this season. They rank 29th in defensive efficiency on the road, allowing 113.7 points per 100 possessions, and that number has dropped all the way to 125.3 during their recent seven-game road trip.
LeVert is starting to return to his usual workload, playing at least 29 minutes in two of his past three games, and has averaged 1.05 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s an appealing target at $5,700.
Small Forward
Stud
The Lakers need to play well down the stretch to make the playoffs, and that should result in a healthy amount of playing time for LeBron James. He’s logged at least 38.5 minutes in each of his past three games and has responded by averaging 66.25 DraftKings points per game.
Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LeBron James
That said, his salary has risen by a significant amount over the past month, and he’s in a difficult spot against the Grizzlies. Even though they’re tanking, the Grizzlies still play at the slowest pace in the league, and the Lakers’ resulting implied team total of 113.25 is mediocre. LeBron still has appeal for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) — especially at likely reduced ownership — but there are better options for cash games.
Value
Derrick Jones Jr. is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel and is coming off greater than 26.5 minutes in his last game. That makes him impossible to ignore given his average of 0.94 FanDuel points per minute this season. He also has an excellent matchup against the Suns, who rank just 29th in defensive efficiency.
Fast Break
The 76ers will likely be a popular team to target at the SF position. They have three appealing targets on this slate:
- Jimmy Butler: He’s seen a usage bump of +5.1% in five games without Embiid this season, resulting in an average of 36.3 DraftKings points per game. Butler is an elite value on DraftKings as well given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
- Tobias Harris: He’s played just two games without Embiid since joining the 76ers but has not disappointed in either, scoring 42.75 and 34.5 DraftKings points. He’s slightly cheaper than Butler across the industry.
- JJ Redick: He’s the best pure value of the trio on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 70%. That said, he doesn’t possess the same upside as Butler or Harris.
Khris Middleton has seen a team-high usage bump of +8.0% with Giannis off the court this season, and his $6,300 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. He’s another way to get exposure to one of the best offensive teams in the league playing without their highest usage player.
Power Forward
Stud
Gregg Popovich pulled the plug early in the Spurs’ last contest, and LaMarcus Aldridge saw just 21 minutes of playing time as a result. He should return to his normal workload in an elite matchup against the Nets, who have been crushed by opposing big men all season, giving Aldridge an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.86 on DraftKings.
Credit: John Glaser-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LaMarcus Aldridge
Aldridge has seen a price decrease across the industry over the past month, making this an excellent opportunity to buy low on him.
Value
Marvin Williams has been a reliable source of production recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past nine games on DraftKings. That said, his salary has actually decreased over that time frame, and his current $4,600 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%. He’s simply too cheap at the moment.
Fast Break
It’s impossible to ignore what Lauri Markkanen has been doing recently. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.34 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +12.62 over his past 10 games. He’s coming off a career-high 35 points in his most recent game and should see a bump in usage if Dunn and Porter are both ruled out for tonight’s contest.
Myles Turner is expected to be a game-time decision, which makes Thaddeus Young an intriguing option for GPPs. Young has led the team with an average of 32.4 minutes per game in three games without Turner and Victor Oladipo, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +6.2 on DraftKings.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns is expected to return from the concussion that caused him to miss the first two games of his NBA career. There’s always the risk that he could see reduced minutes returning from an injury, but he also has massive upside in this contest.
The Kings have been one of the best matchups for centers this season, giving Towns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.31 on DraftKings. Towns has crushed in his past seven meetings against the Kings, averaging a stout 57.21 DraftKings points per game. He also figures to benefit if Jeff Teague is unable to suit up (currently questionable).
Value
Brook Lopez is another member of the Bucks who figures to benefit from the absence of Giannis. Lopez has averaged 27.6 minutes per game in four games without Giannis this season and has increased his fantasy production to 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s also in an excellent spot against the Bulls, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.39, and his $4,600 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Fast Break
Boban Marjanovic will likely draw another start with Embiid out of the lineup, and he’s averaged 1.24 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s another center with a nice matchup, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.00 against the Pelicans. He’s one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel, where his $5,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%.
It’s basically impossible to predict the big man rotation for the Heat on a night-to-night basis, but Hassan Whiteside definitely has some appeal for GPPs against the Suns. He’s averaged 1.48 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he can do some serious damage at his current salary.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Raptors PG Kyle Lowry
Photo Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
