The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The Sacramento Kings are in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Atlanta Hawks. They’ve played at the fastest pace in the league this season and rank just 26th in defensive efficiency, which is a good combination for high-scoring games. Sacramento has played at the second-fastest pace this season, so this game unsurprisingly features the highest over/under of the day at 236 points.
Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sacramento Kings guard De’Aaron Fox (5), Dallas Mavericks guard Jalen Brunson (13).
De’Aaron Fox is in a particularly good spot. The Hawks have struggled mightily against point guards this season, giving Fox an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.20. His salary has also decreased by -$1,300 over the past month on FanDuel, which makes this an excellent time to buy low on him.
Value
The Pacers are going to be thin in the backcourt today. Both Victor Oladipo and Tyreke Evans have been ruled out, and they have been the Pacers’ two highest-usage players this season. That makes the Pacers an interesting team to target in a great matchup vs. the Wizards.
One player in particular who should see a nice bump is Darren Collison. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +4.5% with both Oladipo and Evans off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.02 DraftKings points per minute.
Fast Break
Damian Lillard is priced at just $8,500 on DraftKings vs. the Utah Jazz, which is a bit too cheap for him. He’s averaged 43.9 DraftKings points per game and posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month, and Lillard has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.63 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool). The Jazz are a difficult matchup, but Lillard was able to score 47.5 DraftKings points in his first meeting with them this season.
The Pelicans have been absolutely demolished by injuries recently, and they’ll be without Anthony Davis, Julius Randle, Nikola Mirotic, Elfrid Payton, and E’Twuan Moore on today’s slate. That obviously opens up a lot of playing time in their rotation, and Frank Jackson started and contributed 21.25 DraftKings points in their last game. He’s averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute with all five injured Pelicans off the court this season, which makes him an appealing value target at just $3,400.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Sticking with the Pelicans, it’s hard not to like Jrue Holiday today. He’s been a tremendous option for most of the season and has scored at least 45.25 DraftKings points in eight of his past nine games. He’s been a monster with all five of the injured Pelicans off the court this season as well, averaging 1.56 DraftKings points per minute.
He has a difficult matchup vs. the Nuggets, but the Pelicans are only listed as eight-point underdogs at home. Holiday seems like one of the safest options on the slate, especially on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
The Kings feature a bunch of appealing targets at the shooting guard position today vs. the Hawks. Buddy Hield looks like the preferred target on FanDuel, where his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. His 10 Pro Trends are tied for third at the position, while his Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.97 ranks second.
On DraftKings, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Iman Shumpert are both viable options. Bogdanovic owns a Bargain Rating of 98% and has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s seen at least 31 minutes in three of his past four games and is currently projected for 29.8 minutes in our NBA Models.
Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sacramento Kings guard Bogdan Bogdanovic (8), guard Iman Shumpert (9).
Shumpert has the lowest ceiling of the group but is also the cheapest at just $3,900. He’s playing big minutes at the moment, seeing at least 31.5 in three of his past four games, and he’s posted a Consistency Rating of 90% over the past month.
Fast Break
The Nuggets are another team with the potential to be shorthanded on today’s slate. Jamal Murray has already been ruled out, while Gary Harris is considered questionable. Monte Morris figures to see a nice boost in playing time in their absence and has averaged 0.85 FanDuel points per minute this season.
The theme of the day is injuries. Kyrie Irving remains out for the Boston Celtics, and Jaylen Brown has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of his absence this season. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +8.7 on FanDuel in seven games without Irving and is coming off 31.2 FanDuel points in his most recent game. He’s an excellent value at just $4,700.
Small Forward
Stud
The small forward position lacks a true stud option today, with no one on FanDuel commanding a salary of greater than $7,000. Will Barton is one player worth considering at the top of the pricing spectrum. He’s operated as the Nuggets’ starting point guard with Murray out of the lineup recently and is coming off greater than 35.5 minutes in his most recent contest.
He’s averaged 0.99 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s seen a +7.0% usage bump with both Murray and Harris off the court. He has big upside on FanDuel, where his $6,500 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Value
Darius Miller has been a key contributor for the shorthanded Pelicans recently. He’s coming off 40 minutes their last game and is currently projected for 36 on today’s slate. Miller has been a poor producer for much of the season, averaging just 0.60 DraftKings points per minute, but that number has increased to 0.80 with the injured Pelicans off the court. He’s hard to ignore at just $3,800.
Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Pelicans guard Darius Miller (21), Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7) and forward Robert Williams (44).
Fast Break
Taurean Prince is coming off just 16.4 FanDuel points in his last game, but his recent playing time is encouraging. He’s logged at least 28 minutes in each of his past three games and has averaged 0.87 FanDuel points per minute this season. That much playing time should give him a good chance of returning value at $5,100.
Harrison Barnes is extremely boring to roster, but he’s in an elite spot today vs. the Knicks. They’ve been the second worst defensive team in the league this season, and Barnes owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.14 on FanDuel. He’s posted a 90% Consistency Rating over the past month, so he appears to be a relatively safe option for cash games.
Power Forward
Stud
The power forward position is another thin one at the top, but Jayson Tatum deserves some attention with Irving out of the lineup. He’s averaged a team-high 32.7 minutes per game in that situation, resulting in an average of 31.04 DraftKings points per game. He’s underpriced at $5,800 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Value
It’s time to unleash Marvin Bagley. He’s been excellent when given a chance to play this season, averaging 1.05 DraftKings points per minute, and his playing time has been on the rise recently. He played just under 20 minutes in his most recent game but logged 29 and 37.5 minutes in each of the two previous games. He’s in an excellent spot today vs. the Hawks, giving him an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.83, and his $5,400 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Fast Break
James Johnson is dirt cheap at just $3,900 on FanDuel and is coming off 23.9 fantasy points in his last game. He played 30 minutes in that contest and has averaged a respectable 0.80 FanDuel points per minute this season. He should continue to see the majority of the minutes at the PF position with Kelly Olynyk seeing a drastic reduction in playing time.
Marcus Morris has been a nice source of value for the Celtics with Irving out of the lineup, averaging a Plus/Minus of +2.9 on FanDuel. He’s coming off 34.1 FanDuel points in his most recent contest and leads the position with nine Pro Trends on today’s slate.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic is in a dream spot today vs. the decimated Pelicans’ frontcourt. He will likely see tons of minutes against Jahlil Okafor, who is not exactly known for his defensive prowess. He ranks just 50th out of 67 qualifiers at the center position in Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM) this season, and the Pelicans have allowed 114.5 points per 100 possessions with Okafor on the court and Davis off the court this season. The Nuggets resulting implied team total of 117.0 ranks second on the slate.
Jokic should also benefit from the absence of Murray. He’s seen a usage bump of +3.6% with Murray out of the lineup over the past two games, and Jokic scored 70.6 FanDuel points against the 76ers two games ago. They were also without their star big man in that contest (Joel Embiid), which could be foreshadowing for his performance tonight.
Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15).
Value
Speaking of Okafor, it’s hard to ignore what he’s been doing from a fantasy perspective recently. He’s averaged 41.75 DraftKings points over his past five games and has recorded a double-double in four of them. He looks like a steal at just $6,600 on today’s slate as long as he can avoid foul trouble against Jokic.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert owns a Bargain Rating of 99% on DraftKings, which makes him an interesting option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He’ll likely garner very little ownership but could be in an excellent spot vs. the Blazers. Jusuf Nurkic is currently questionable to suit up, and his absence would give Gobert a very soft matchup on the interior. Gobert has also been an excellent value in general recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.43 over his past 10 games.
Myles Turner has been one of the biggest beneficiaries from the absence of Oladipo this season and is in a potential smash spot vs. the Wizards. They’ve been awful on the glass this season, and Turner has crushed them for 48.4 and 56.9 FanDuel points in their first two meetings.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Pelicans G Jrue Holiday
Photo Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
