The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The Kawhi Leonard rest saga continues, as the Raptors’ star forward will miss his fourth consecutive game due to “load management.” That gives Kyle Lowry a big bump in value against the Pacers. He’s averaged 42.37 DraftKings points per game in 13 contests without Leonard this season, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +5.2 on DraftKings. He’s also seen a sizable price decrease over the past month across the industry, which makes this an excellent time to buy-low on him.
Value
Kyrie Irving has been ruled out, which makes Terry Rozier one of the best value plays of the day. Rozier has started each game that Irving has missed this season and has averaged 30.0 DraftKings points per game in those contests. He also has an elite matchup against the Cavaliers, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency this season by a substantial margin.
Rozier is priced at $4,000 on DraftKings and $4,500 on FanDuel and will rightfully be one of the highest-owned options on the slate.
Fast Break
Kris Dunn is an appealing target on DraftKings, where his $6,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s in one of the best spots of the day against the Hawks, who have played at the fastest pace in the league this season. They’ve also been particularly vulnerable against opposing PGs, giving Dunn an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.01.
Jeremy Lin has somewhat quietly given the Hawks some quality minutes this season. He’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +3.01 over that time frame. He played 29.5 minutes in the Hawks’ most recent contest, which gives him big upside at his current salary across the industry.
Shooting Guard
Stud
All the value at the PG position makes it easy to pay up for James Harden. He’s coming off his worst game in a month, scoring “just” 55.0 DraftKings points in 30.5 minutes in his most recent contest. That said, Harden’s teammates were more responsible for his poor night than he was: They shot just 31.7% from the field, which allowed the game to turn into a blowout.
Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: James Harden
The Rockets should have no problem scoring the ball against the Knicks, who currently rank just 29th in defensive efficiency. Houston’s resulting implied team total of 116.25 is the top mark on the slate. Harden can go off against anyone, but his ceiling against the Knicks is higher than usual.
Values
Jaylen Brown is another member of the Celtics who figures to benefit from Irving’s absence. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +4.8% with Irving out of the lineup this season, resulting in an average of 26.56 FanDuel points per game. He’s priced at a discount at $4,300 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 75%.
Marcus Smart might be the more appealing option on DraftKings, where he owns a Bargain Rating of 93%. He hasn’t seen as big of a bump in usage with Irving out of the lineup but has averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute. He’s currently projected for 33.2 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him a nice target at $4,600.
Fast Break
Justin Holiday is a steal at $3,700 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s coming off 37.5 minutes in his most recent outing and owns a strong Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.31 against the Hornets.
Eric Gordon is getting plenty of opportunities for the shorthanded Rockets at the moment, which gives him massive upside at $5,300 on FanDuel. His jump shot has betrayed him for much of the season, but the Knicks have allowed the sixth-most made 3-pointers per game.
Small Forward
Stud
The SF position is a bit thin at the top, with just one player owning a salary above $6,700 on FanDuel. That said, Nikola Mirotic has the potential to provide stud-like production at a fraction of the cost for the shorthanded Pelicans.
Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nikola Mirotic
The Pelicans will be without Anthony Davis for at least the next few games, and Mirotic has seen a usage bump of +2.9% with Davis off the court this season. The result is an average of 1.14 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s coming off 32 minutes in his most recent contest against the Grizzlies. The Pelicans ultimately won that game by 20 points, so it’s possible he could see even more playing time against the Pistons. He’s hard to pass up on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 90%.
Value
Sticking with the Pelicans, Darius Miller is currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models and is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel. That’s an appealing combination: Players with a comparable salary and minute projection have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.80 (per the Trends tool).
That said, this slate is loaded with value options, and Miller doesn’t appear to offer a particularly strong ceiling.
Fast Break
Tobias Harris was a massive disappointment on Tuesday, scoring just 31.4 FanDuel points against the Mavericks. However, he shot just 1-9 from the field in that contest, which makes him a prime candidate for some positive regression. He still figures to see a nice boost in value with Danilo Gallinari out of the lineup, as Harris has averaged 43.98 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Gallo off the court this season.
Add Gordon Hayward to the list of viable Celtics’ options on FanDuel, where his $4,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. He’s been excellent in his four previous games without Irving this season, averaging 29.78 FanDuel points and a +6.6 Plus/Minus.
Power Forward
Stud
LaMarcus Aldridge has been a nice value recently on FanDuel, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.43 over his past six games. That number is a bit inflated by a 79.8 FanDuel point performance in a double overtime game against the Thunder, but he’s scored at least 35.3 FanDuel points in five of those six contests. He’s averaged 1.29 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which is tied for the top mark at the PF position.
He’s in a decent spot against the 76ers, who have played at the seventh-fastest pace this season. The Spurs are one of the slowest teams in the league, making this one of the largest pace-up spots of the day. Aldridge’s 11 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on FanDuel, where he owns a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Value
Bobby Portis is another PF who is priced at a discount on FanDuel, where his $5,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. He’s been a nice value recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, and he’s averaged 1.19 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s in an elite spot against the Hawks, giving Portis an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.37.
Fast Break
Jayson Tatum and Marcus Morris are also in play for the Celtics, who own the second-highest implied team total on the slate. Morris has seen a usage bump of +4.4% in games without Irving this season, while Tatum has led the team with an average of 33.5 minutes per game.
Tatum is a particularly strong value on DraftKings, where his $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Kenneth Faried wasted no time making an impact for the Houston Rockets, playing greater than 23 minutes in his first game with the team. He scored 20.0 DraftKings points in that contest and has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which makes him an interesting option at $4,400 on DraftKings.
Center
Stud
Nikola Vucevic continues to dominate for the Magic. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games and is coming off 55.5 DraftKings points in his most recent contest. He’s averaged 1.53 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, resulting in a Consistency Rating of 92%.
Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Orlando Magic center Nikola Vucevic (9).
Vucevic is in an elite against the Nets, who have given up big games in bunches to opposing centers this season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.89 for Vucevic, and he scored 50.25 DraftKings points against the Nets just last week. His 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on DraftKings, where his $9,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Value
Ante Zizic has gotten an opportunity to play big minutes for the shorthanded Cavs recently and has not disappointed, scoring at least 30.2 FanDuel points in each of his past four games. He’s egregiously underpriced at $5,400 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Fast Break
Joel Embiid has a brutal matchup against the Spurs, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.52 on FanDuel, but he’s going to be hard to ignore if Jimmy Butler and Ben Simmons are ruled out. Both players are currently listed as questionable, and Embiid has posted a usage rate of 40.9% with both players off the court since acquiring Butler from the Timberwolves. The result is an average of 1.75 DraftKings points per minute.
The Knicks are going to be without Luke Kornet for a couple of weeks, which means they’re expected to lean on Enes Kanter once again at the center position. Kanter is extremely productive from a fantasy perspective when given the chance to play — he’s averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute over the past month — and he’s been priced down to $5,000 for Wednesday’s contest against the Rockets. He’s one of the strongest options on the slate regardless of position.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Celtics PG Terry Rozier
Photo Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
