The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard has somewhat quietly been a dominant fantasy asset recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.99 over his past 10 games and a Consistency Rating of 100% over the past month on DraftKings. He’s also increased his production to 1.33 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark at the PG position on this slate.
It’s hard to ignore Lillard on DraftKings, where his $8,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He also leads all PGs with 13 Pro Trends in a decent matchup against the Warriors. Lillard has historically loved facing Golden State, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.99 in 25 games against the Warriors over the past four seasons (per our Trends tool). When he’s facing them at home — like he is on today’s slate — that number jumps to +11.21.
Value
Delon Wright started in place of Mike Conley yesterday and responded with 26.0 DraftKings points in 34.5 minutes. Conley is expected to return to the lineup against the Bulls, but Wright still possesses some value at $3,600 on DraftKings. He has a solid matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.07, and his current price tag results in a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Fast Break
Kawhi Leonard is currently questionable, and Kyle Lowry would become an appealing option in his absence. Lowry has a great matchup against the Wizards, and the Raptors’ resulting implied team total of 121.5 points is the top mark on the slate. Lowry has also seen a usage bump of +4.0% in 15 games without Leonard this season, resulting in an average of 41.9 DraftKings points per game.
Patrick Beverley has been a nice source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.32 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He also has one of the best matchups of the day against the Suns, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.58.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden’s salary is creeping back to reality on DraftKings. His price tag has fallen to $11,800 on DraftKings against the Timberwolves, which represents a decrease of $2,000 from its peak.
Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: James Harden
He’s seen a slight reduction in usage with Chris Paul back in the lineup, but he’s still getting more opportunities on a nightly basis than anyone else in the league. Harden has posted a usage rate of at least 36.9% in each of his past four contests and routinely plays close to 38 minutes in games that stay competitive. He’s projected for just 9-12% ownership on DraftKings, which makes him the ultimate target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
The Celtics are going to be an extremely popular team to target. Kyrie Irving will miss his second straight game with a knee injury, while Terry Rozier is currently doubtful with an illness. That likely leaves the team without their top two PGs and opens up a lot of opportunities for the rest of the roster.
One guy who should see a bump is Marcus Smart, who will likely move into the starting PG position. He’s logged only 36 minutes this season with both Irving and Rozier off the court, which makes it tough to determine his value, but he should be able to improve upon his average of 0.84 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Lou Williams possesses an extremely high ceiling considering his salary of $7,100 on DraftKings. He exploded for 52.25 DraftKings points in his most recent contest and figures to take on a larger offensive role following the trade of Tobias Harris. Williams has increased his usage rate by +3.1% with Harris off the court this season and is in a wonderful spot against the Suns, who rank 29th in defensive efficiency. The Clippers’ implied team total of 120.25 ranks second on the slate.
The Heat were already thin in the backcourt after trading away Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington and could be even thinner on Wednesday. Dwyane Wade is currently questionable with an illness, and his absence would likely result in a larger role for Dion Waiters. Waiters has scored at least 24.75 DraftKings points in each of his past two games and remains affordable at $4,300 for today’s contest vs. the Mavericks.
Bogdan Bogdanovic has a difficult matchup against the Nuggets but is simply too cheap at $4,900 on DraftKings. He’s scored at least 31.0 DraftKings points in each of his past three games and has averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is in the midst of a wonderful stretch of basketball, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.94 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s also increased his fantasy production to 1.85 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, resulting in a Consistency Rating of 100% over that time frame.
Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo
That said, Giannis is priced near his ceiling. The Pacers have been one of the worst fantasy matchups this season — they currently rank 25th in pace and second in defensive efficiency — giving Giannis a subpar Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.99 on DraftKings. He struggled in his last matchup against the Pacers, scoring just 35.5 DraftKings points in 31.5 minutes, making him riskier than usual.
Value
Gordon Hayward has started to turn things around after an awful start to the season and could potentially slide into the starting lineup. He should carry plenty of fantasy value even if he continues to come off the bench given his usage bump of +5.1% with both Irving and Rozier off the court this season. Hayward has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute in that situation, which represents a significant increase from his regular season average of 0.94 DraftKings points per minute. He’s a strong value across the industry.
Fast Break
Josh Richardson is another member of the Heat who would see a bump in value if Wade is unable to suit up. Richardson is coming off a poor performance in his most recent contest, which makes him an appealing buy-low option. He’s a particularly strong value on FanDuel, where his $6,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.
Otto Porter has seen a nice increase in playing time after getting traded to the Bulls. He’s logged at least 33.5 minutes in all three of his contests, including 37.5 in his most recent game. Porter has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season, making him a nice value at his current price tag of $5,600.
Power Forward
Stud
This slate lacks a true stud option at the PF position, but Jayson Tatum has the potential to provide stud-like production at a reduced cost. He’s been excellent in 96 minutes with Irving and Rozier both off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.3 DraftKings points per minute. Tatum hasn’t really needed to put his immense skill set in display for most of the season, but he’s displayed a nice ceiling recently, scoring at least 43.5 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. He’s an elite target on DraftKings, where his $6,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Value
Marcus Morris is another member of the Celtics who should be on your radar. He’s seen a usage bump of +3.0% with Irving and Rozier off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.99 FanDuel points per minute.
Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Marcus Morris
Morris might be the preferred Celtics’ target on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 82%.
Fast Break
DeMarcus Cousins will get the night off for the Warriors, which makes Draymond Green an interesting target. Green has seen a price decrease across the industry over the past month and has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute with Cousins off the court since he returned to the lineup on Jan. 18.
Montrezl Harrell is in an elite spot against the Suns, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.27 on DraftKings. He’s seen a reduction in fantasy production over the past month but has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games. He’s a strong value on DraftKings, where his $6,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Center
Stud
There are a bunch of strong options to choose from at the top of the center position, but Nikola Jokic stands out above the rest. He has one of the best matchups at the position against the Kings, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.49. Jokic has scored 96.25 DraftKings points in just under 55 minutes this season, so he has massive upside if this game stays competitive.
Value
Jonas Valanciunas did not disappoint in his Grizzlies debut, tallying 39.5 DraftKings points in just 21.5 minutes. Starting center Ivan Rabb played just 11.5 minutes in that contest, and it would not be shocking to see Valanciunas replace Rabb in the starting lineup at some point soon.
That said, this is the second leg of a back-to-back, and Valanciunas is still working his way back from an injury that caused him to miss 50 games. Still, it’s hard to ignore that kind of production at $4,200 on DraftKings, which should make him one of the highest-owned players of the day.
Fast Break
Deandre Ayton has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games and is in an elite spot today vs. the Clippers. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.93 on DraftKings, which is the second-highest mark at the position. He leads the position in Pro Trends on FanDuel and commands a Bargain Rating of 86% on DraftKings, making him a strong play across the industry.
Last but not least for the Celtics is Al Horford. He’s seen a usage bump of +4.2% with Irving and Rozier off the court this season, resulting in a team-high average of 1.33 DraftKings points minute per minute. He’s one of the best values of the day on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Blazers PG Damian Lillard
Photo Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
