The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard has been a bit of a disappointment recently from a fantasy perspective, posting an average Plus/Minus of -1.37 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. That said, his salary has decreased by $500 over the past month, which makes him an interesting buy-low target against the Clippers.
The Clippers have played at the ninth fastest pace this season, and the Blazers’ resulting implied team total of 117.75 ranks fourth on the slate. Lillard has posted a Consistency Rating of 90% over the past month, making him a strong target for cash games.
Value
The Bulls are expected to be without Zach LaVine on today’s slate, which is creating a lot of value with their backcourt. It starts with Kris Dunn, who owns a Bargain Rating of 86% on DraftKings. Dunn has seen a usage bump of +6.2% with LaVine off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.03 DraftKings points per minute.
Shaq Harrison and Ryan Arcidiacono should also see a bump in value. Arcidiacono replaced LaVine in the starting lineup in the Bulls’ last game and ultimately logged 26.3 minutes. He’s averaged 0.69 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel.
Harrison likely wont see as many minutes as Arcidiacono — he’s currently projected for 23.5 in our NBA Models — but he might offer more upside given his average of 0.81 DraftKings points per minute. He’s an appealing punt play at $3,100 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Eric Bledsoe owns the top matchup at the PG position. He’s taking on the Pelicans, and the Bucks are implied for a slate-high 123.5 points. Bledsoe owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.80 on DraftKings, and his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Collin Sexton has been a nice source of value recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games on DraftKings. He’s seen a boost in playing time in his past two games with Matthew Dellavedova out of the lineup, and he’s averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’d be an excellent target at $4,900 on DraftKings if Dellavedova is ruled out for Tuesday’s matchup against the 76ers.
Shooting Guard
Stud
DeMar DeRozan is coming off 49.8 FanDuel points in his last game and is in a nice spot against the Mavericks. Rudy Gay has already been ruled out with an illness, and DeRozan has seen a usage bump of +2.8% with Gay off the court this season.
Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: DeMar DeRozan
DeRozan has scored at least 48.6 FanDuel points in four of his past seven games, so he has nice upside at his current salary across the industry.
Value
On the other side of the same matchup, Luka Doncic is currently questionable after injuring his knee against the Rockets on Sunday. He said he felt a “pop,” so it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Mavericks exercise caution with their star rookie.
Tim Hardaway Jr. would see a big boost in value if Doncic is ultimately ruled out. He’s seen a usage bump of +6.4% with Doncic off the court since joining the team on Feb. 6, resulting in an average of 1.04 DraftKings points per minute. He’d be hard to pass up at $4,900 on DraftKings if Doncic is unable to play.
Fast Break
Lou Williams is coming off a big performance against the Celtics on Monday, scoring 43.3 FanDuel points in a little more than 23 minutes. That game turned into a blowout, so Williams should see more minutes if Tuesday’s game against the Blazers stays competitive. He’s averaged an elite 1.37 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his $7,300 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.
Gary Harris is still working his way back from injury, but he’s currently projected for 29.5 minutes for Tuesday night’s matchup against the Timberwolves. Harris has averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he should be able to pay off his $4,000 salary if he sees that much playing time.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been the best player in fantasy on a per-minute basis over the past month. He’s averaged 1.75 DraftKings points per minute over that time frame, but it hasn’t necessarily translated into elite fantasy results. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in five of his past seven games and cracked the 57.0-fantasy point barrier in just one of those contests. The Bucks simply don’t need Giannis to command a massive workload to dominate on a nightly basis.
Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo
His workload is especially concerning against the Pelicans. The Bucks are currently 10.5-point favorites despite playing on the road, so they might need Giannis even less than usual. He still carries big upside for guaranteed prize pools, but there are better options for cash games.
Value
Otto Porter Jr. has been a strong target since arriving in Chicago, and he should take on a larger workload today with LaVine out of the lineup. Porter has increased his usage rate by +5.1% with LaVine off the court, resulting in an average of 1.08 DraftKings points per minute. He’s a particularly strong option on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 95%.
Fast Break
The Cavs have the potentially to be extremely shorthanded in the frontcourt. Kevin Love has already been ruled out for rest, while Larry Nance Jr. and Tristan Thompson are both questionable with injuries. Marquese Chriss could also be suspended following his altercation with Serge Ibaka.
This could result in a ton of playing time for Cedi Osman, who has been playing a lot, with at least 35 minutes in each of his past three games. He could approach 40 if the Cavs are without all of their questionable big men. Osman has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do some damage if given the opportunity.
Will Barton is one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel, where his $5,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%. He had played at least 32 minutes in five straight games prior to Friday’s loss to the Warriors and has averaged 0.89 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Power Forward
Stud
Lauri Markkanen has been a disappointment recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past five games on FanDuel. That said, his salary has decreased by $1,100 from its peak on FanDuel, which makes this a nice opportunity to buy low on him.
Markkanen has led the team with an average of 1.04 FanDuel points per minute with LaVine out of the lineup this season, and he’s in an excellent spot against the Lakers. He’s one of the stronger values at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 82%.
Value
Mo Wagner is tough to ignore on DraftKings, where his $3,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He has the potential to handle a heavy workload for the shorthanded Lakers, who will be without Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball and potentially Kyle Kuzma.
Wagner saw 34 minutes in his last contest and responded with 35.0 DraftKings points, which is in line with his average of 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season. He also has an excellent matchup against the Bulls, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.91.
Fast Break
Maxi Kleber is another nice source of value at the PF position on DraftKings. He’s priced at $3,500 and is coming off 34.75 DraftKings points in his last game. He would be one of the top candidates to absorb some of Doncic’s minutes if he’s ultimately ruled out.
Paul Millsap has been a strong option recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.58 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.20 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 32.5 minutes. He’s also in a nice spot against the Timberwolves, who could potentially be without Karl-Anthony Towns.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid returned to the 76ers’ lineup in their last game and wasted no time making an impact. He scored 52.5 DraftKings points in just 28 minutes and posted a usage rate of 44.9%. He should see more playing time as he gets further removed from his injury. He also has an excellent matchup against the Cavaliers, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency. Their current injury situation makes the matchup even juicier.
Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joel Embiid
Embiid will also benefit from the absence of Jimmy Butler, who has already been ruled out for rest purposes. Embiid has seen a usage bump of +2.7% with Butler off the court since the team acquired Tobias Harris, resulting in an average of 1.80 DraftKings points per minute. There is some blowout concern — the 76ers are massive 14.5-point favorites — but Embiid has a massive ceiling if this game stays competitive.
Value
Ante Zizic is the only member of the Cavs’ frontcourt who will definitely play on Tuesday night. He’s averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute this season and is coming off 24.25 DraftKings points in his last game. He’s a strong target at just $3,700 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Jusuf Nurkic is one of the best values of the day on DraftKings, where his $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He also has an elite matchup against the Clippers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.90.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Bulls PF Lauri Markkanen
Photo Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
