The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a five-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET
Point Guard
Stud
Trae Young has been an excellent value over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.19 on DraftKings. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.25 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which trails only Steph Curry at the PG position.
He’s in a wonderful spot against the Lakers, who have played at the fourth-fastest pace this season. The Hawks have played at the fastest pace, and the resulting over/under of 238 points is the highest mark on the slate by a considerable margin.
Young should also benefit from the Hawks’ decision to buy out Jeremy Lin. Young has played 28.5 or fewer minutes in each of his past four games, but he should see a solid bump in playing time with Lin out of the lineup. He’s currently projected for 34.4 minutes in our NBA Models, making him a strong option across the industry.
Value
Delon Wright has PG eligibility on DraftKings, and he should benefit from his trade to the Memphis Grizzlies. He’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and played 23 minutes in his first game with his new team. He also has a nice matchup against the Spurs, who have struggled against opposing PGs all season.
Wright is one of the better values at the position on DraftKings, where his $3,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Fast Break
Ricky Rubio has increased his fantasy production to 1.08 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games on FanDuel. He’s in a pace-up spot against the Warriors, and Rubio has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.91 vs. Golden State (per our Trends tool).
D.J. Augustin has the best matchup of the day at the position. He’s taking on the Pelicans, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.75 on DraftKings. He’s coming of 36.75 DraftKings points in his last outing, so he has nice upside at just $4,700.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Donovan Mitchell has seen a slight decrease in value with the return of Rubio, but he’s still been an awesome fantasy asset.
Photo Credit: Russell Isabella-USA Today Sports, Pictured: Donovan Mitchell
Mitchell has increased his fantasy production to 1.21 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, resulting in a Consistency Rating of 83%. His salary his also decreased by -$500 over that time frame, and his current $8,300 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%. He leads the position with 14 Pro Trends, and no one else has more than 11.
Value
The Celtics will be without Kyrie Irving, which creates some value with the rest of the roster. Jaylen Brown has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of Irving’s absence this season, seeing a team-high usage bump of +4.6% with Irving out of the lineup. The result is an average of 28.62 FanDuel points per game, and that kind of production would make him an excellent value at $5,200.
Fast Break
Brandon Ingram doesn’t possess the same ceiling with LeBron James back in the lineup, but he still looks like an excellent value at $5,500 on DraftKings. Ingram has scored at least 28.5 DraftKings points in seven of his past eight games, and he’s posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month. His salary has also decreased by $800 over the time frame, and his current salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
It’s impossible to predict when Klay Thompson is going to go off, but he has been unusually reliable recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.64 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, including posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and his $6,100 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James has had a bit of a disappointing fantasy season in his first year with the Lakers. He’s averaging approximately four fewer fantasy points per game than he did in his final year with the Cavaliers, and he recently missed 18 games with a groin injury. The Lakers would not be in the playoffs if they started today, and LeBron is also reportedly angling behind the scenes to get head coach Luke Walton fired.
That said, none of that matters against the Hawks. It’s an elite matchup, giving LeBron an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.84 on DraftKings, and the Lakers’ implied team total of 121.5 is the top mark on the slate. As long as he suits up — he’s currently list as probable — it’s hard not to love him on a slate that’s light on superstars.
Value
Taurean Prince is another member of the Hawks who could benefit from Lin being released. Prince hasn’t been particularly good recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -1.21 over his past 10 games, but that’s caused his salary to decrease to just $4,500 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 92% on DraftKings, and Prince has averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Taurean Prince
Prince doesn’t need to play much to pay off his current salary.
Fast Break
Evan Fournier is coming off 33.25 DraftKings points in his most recent contest and is in an excellent spot against the Pelicans. He’s priced at a discount at $5,200 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Jae Crowder is one of the better pure values at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 82%. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games and could see a few additional minutes against the Warriors. His skill set seems better suited for this contest than Derrick Favors’.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is the ultimate high-risk, high-reward option on DraftKings. He’s been priced down to $10,300, which is his lowest salary of the season. He’s also projected for just 13-16% ownership, which would have been unfathomable for Davis at this price tag just a few weeks ago.
Of course, the reason for the price decrease and the likely low ownership is the uncertainty regarding his workload. He’s played two games since the trade deadline and saw 25 minutes in one and 34 minutes in the other. Davis can do a lot of damage in limited playing time — he’s averaged 1.71 DraftKings points per minute over the past month — so he still has significant upside if he sees towards the high-end of his minute range.
Value
Marcus Morris is another member of the Celtics who should benefit from the absence of Irving.
Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Marcus Morris
Morris has seen a usage of +3.6% in games without Irving this season, resulting in an average of 0.96 FanDuel points per minute. Morris is currently projected for 31 minutes in our NBA Models, which would make him an excellent value at his current salary across the industry.
Fast Break
Kyle Kuzma has seen his salary come back to reality after spiking with James out of the lineup, which makes him an interesting buy-low candidate against the Hawks. It’s an elite matchup, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.15 on DraftKings, and his $6,000 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
John Collins has seen a salary decrease of $800 over the past month on FanDuel, which makes him an appealing buy low target against the Lakers. The Lakers have struggled against opposing big men all season, and his $7,700 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%.
Center
Stud
Rudy Gobert is an interesting option. For starters, he’s been a wonderful option recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.43 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.44 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on DraftKings.
His matchup against the Warriors is also a good one. They’ve struggled against opposing centers this season, giving Gobert an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.45, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first two games against the Warriors. The addition of DeMarcus Cousins also makes it less likely that this game turns into a track meet, so his minutes should be safe.
Value
JaVale McGee looks like one of the biggest winners from the trade deadline. He no longer has to worry about Ivica Zubac stealing minutes from him, and he’s responded by posting a Plus/Minus of at least +8.43 in each of his past two games on DraftKings.
He remains underpriced at $4,800 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s also in an excellent spot against the Hawks, giving him an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.79.
Fast Break
DeMarcus Cousins is still working his back from a brutal injury, but he has played at least 26.5 minutes in each of his past two games. He’s averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can do some serious damage even if he doesn’t see 30 minutes. He’s particularly appealing on DraftKings, where his $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Lakers SF LeBron James
Photo Credit: Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports
