The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features an eight-game NBA slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Elfrid Payton has seen limited minutes recently, playing 24.7 or fewer in two of his past three games. That said, he figures to return to his normal workload and is currently projected for 35.5 minutes in our NBA Models. The Pelicans are still without Jrue Holiday, and Payton has averaged 1.11 FanDuel points per minute with Holiday off the court since the All-Star break.
Payton is also in an excellent spot against the Kings, who have played at the second-fastest pace this season. The Pelicans’ implied team total of 116.0 also ranks fourth on the slate. Payton is a particularly strong option on FanDuel, where his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Value
The Raptors will be shorthanded with Kawhi Leonard getting the night off for rest purposes. That makes Fred VanVleet an elite option at $4,800 on DraftKings. He’s started when Leonard has been out of the lineup recently and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.7 in 15 games without Leonard this season. VanVleet also has an excellent matchup against the Knicks, who rank 28th in defensive efficiency this season.
Fast Break
Emmanuel Mudiay has been playing big minutes for the shorthanded Knicks recently and has scored at least 37.25 DraftKings points in each of his past two games. He owns a strong individual matchup against the Raptors, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.25, and his $5,700 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been a nice source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.30 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and should see a healthy amount of playing time with Patrick Beverley out of the lineup.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden has failed to return value in each of his past two games, but he still offers one of the highest ceilings on a night-to-night basis. He leads the league with a usage rate of 40.5%, and no one else owns a usage rate above 33.0%.
Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: James Harden
That said, he’s in a difficult spot against the Nuggets, who rank 26th in pace and are tied for 10th in defensive efficiency this season, and Harden owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.62 on DraftKings. He still offers plenty of upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) — and his ownership across the industry should be modest — but there are better options for cash games.
Value
Danny Green has the potential to see a larger workload than usual. Leonard has already been ruled out, while OG Anunoby is questionable with concussion-like symptoms. Green has averaged 0.78 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need to play much to potentially pay off his $3,900 salary.
Fast Break
Khris Middleton is simply too cheap at $7,000 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%. He leads the SG position with 12 Pro Trends, and the Bucks’ implied team total of 120.75 ranks first on the slate.
Luka Doncic has been phenomenal recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.44 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s recorded triple-doubles in back-to-back games, resulting in at least 62.75 DraftKings points in both contests. He leads all players with 15 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and players with a comparable number of Pro Trends have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.96 (per the Trends tool). He’s an elite option at $8,400 given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetkounmpo has averaged a slate-best 1.73 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s increased his production to 1.82 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s averaged 58.5 DraftKings points per game over that time frame, resulting in a Consistency Rating of 91%, yet his salary has actually decreased by -$400. His current $11,200 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo
It’s hard not to like Giannis against the Clippers. They’ve played at one of the faster paces in the league this season, and Giannis’ Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.51 is one of the stronger marks at the position. He’s a strong option regardless of format.
Value
Luke Kennard has been a viable option for the Pistons recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games on DraftKings. He’s also seen a nice spike in playing time over his past three games, playing at least 28 minutes in each contest. He’s averaged 0.76 DraftKings points per minute this season, making him a strong target at $3,900.
Fast Break
Darius Miller is a strong punt play for the shorthanded Pelicans at $3,700 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 82% in a plus-matchup against the Kings, and he’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries and playing time projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.46.
The Heat have the potential to be pretty shorthanded, with Josh Richardson already ruled out and Justise Winslow listed as questionable. That makes Dwyane Wade an interesting option.
Wade has averaged 1.10 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 39.3 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. He’s priced at a discount on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 85%.
Power Forward
Stud
Julius Randle has seen a price decrease of $1,100 over the past month on FanDuel, which makes him a strong buy-low target against the Kings. He’s been a strong options in contests, where he’s played full minutes, which is not surprising given his average of 1.22 FanDuel points per minute this season. Randle has a nice matchup against the Kings, who rank just 25th in team rebound rate, and his $8,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 77%.
Value
P.J. Tucker is very uninspiring when in comes to fantasy production — he’s averaged just 0.57 DraftKings points per minute over the past month — but it’s hard to ignore his workload at just $3,800. He’s currently projected for 35.5 minutes, and players with a comparable salary and minute projection have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.86. His low upside makes him undesirable in GPPs, but he’s a relatively safe option for cash games.
Fast Break
Pascal Siakam has the chance to provide stud-like production at a fraction of the cost today. He’s been fantastic with Leonard out of the lineup this season, averaging 35.02 FanDuel points per game, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +5.4. His 12 Pro Trends rank second at the position on FanDuel, where his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.
The Cavs have a pair of strong options at the PF position on DraftKings. Kevin Love has averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute this season and has seen a slight uptick in playing time recently. He’s played at least 31.5 minutes in two of his past three games, making him a viable option at $7,200.
Larry Nance Jr. is an even better value at $5,400 given his Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute this season and is currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models.
Center
Stud
The center position is absolutely loaded, starting with Joel Embiid. He’s been a strong value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.52 over his past 10 games, but he has failed to return value in each of his past two. That’s caused his salary to decline to just $10,400 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%.
He’s in an elite bounce-back spot against the Nets, who have been crushed by opposing centers all season. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.49, and Embiid crushed the Nets for 66.75 DraftKings points in their last meeting.
Value
Mitchell Robinson is one of the best pure values of the day on DraftKings, where his $4,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He hasn’t been playing a ton of minutes recently, but that hasn’t stopped him from scoring at least 36.0 DraftKings points in two of his past three games.
Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mitchell Robinson
Robinson has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do some serious damage in limited playing time.
Fast Break
Nikola Vucevic has posted a Consistency Rating of 91% over the past month on DraftKings, yet his salary has still decreased by -$800 over that time frame. He’s currently priced at $8,500, and Vucevic has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.57 with a comparable salary this season. He leads all centers with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.35 vs. the Detroit Pistons.
It’s much tougher to find a strong value at the center position on FanDuel, but Brook Lopez is an exception. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.06 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his matchup against the Clippers results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.32.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: 76ers C Joel Embiid (21)
Photo Credit: Jasen Vinlove- USA Today Sports
