NBA Fantasy Breakdown (Thu. 1/24): Jahlil Okafor Provides Much-Needed Value

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Thursday feature a four-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

The point guard position is loaded at the top for a four game slate. It starts with Russell Westbrook, who is coming of 67.0 DraftKings points in his most recent game. He’s in an elite spot today vs. the Pelicans, who have played at the sixth fastest pace and rank just 27th in defensive efficiency.

The Thunder’s implied team total of 122.5 ranks first on the slate, and Westbrook owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.90. His 13 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on DraftKings, where his $10,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Value

Jeff Teague has been ruled out for the Minnesota Timberwolves, which means we should get a healthy does of Derrick Rose vs. the Los Angeles Lakers. Rose has seen a usage bump of +2.2% with Teague out of the lineup this season, resulting in an average of 38.85 FanDuel points per 36 minutes.

He also has an excellent matchup vs. the Lakers, who have played at the second-fastest pace this season. Rose’s 68% Bargain Rating on FanDuel doesn’t exactly jump off the page, but it is the highest mark at the position.

Jerryd Bayless should also see a few additional minutes as the backup point guard, and he’s coming off 35.3 FanDuel points in his last game. He likely won’t see 28.5 minutes like he did in that contest — The Timberwolves won that game by 27 points — but he’s dirt-cheap at just $3,600 on DraftKings.

Fast Break

Rajon Rondo is looking like a game-time decision for today’s contest after missing each of the past 14 games, and his return would be a welcome sight for the shorthanded Lakers. They’re still without LeBron James and Lonzo Ball, and Rondo has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute with both players off the court this season. Rondo will likely be on some sort of minute limit if he is active, but he could be an interesting target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).

Damian Lillard remains underpriced on DraftKings, where his $8,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s coming off 60.75 DraftKings points in his most recent contest, and Lillard has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.91 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool).

Shooting Guard

Stud

Jrue Holiday has been one of the most reliable options in DFS this season, and he should continue to benefit from the absence of Anthony Davis. He’s posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month on DraftKings and has scored at least 45.5 DraftKings points in five of his past six games. His 13 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on today’s slate, and his $8,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Value

Andrew Wiggins hasn’t exactly dominated from a fantasy perspective recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in four of his past five games. That said, he’s shot the ball poorly over that time frame, making just 35.4% of his shots from the field and 50% from the free throw line. He should be able to improve on both of those marks moving forward, which makes him a nice buy-low option today vs. the Lakers. He’s currently projected for 38.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which is the second-highest mark on the slate.

Fast Break

Devin Booker has been a disaster recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -6.83 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. However, his salary has decreased by -$1,000 over the past month, and he’s actually increased his per-minute output over that time frame (1.20 DraftKings points per minute). He’s been plagued by a lack of minutes due to injuries and/or blowouts, so he has big upside if he returns to his usual workload on today’s slate.

Bradley Beal can be a bit overlooked at times, but he’s been crushing it with John Wall out of the lineup. He’s averaged 50.64 DraftKings points in 14 games without Wall this season and routinely plays 40 minutes in games that stay competitive. That’s no guarantee today vs. the Warriors – who have won eight straight games – but Beal has arguably the highest ceiling at the position.

Small Forward

Stud

Paul George has always been a great player, but he’s taken his game to another level this season from a fantasy perspective. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.31 on DraftKings through his first 46 games and has averaged 53.55 DraftKings points over his past five.

He leads the small forward position in Consistency Rating and Upside Rating over the past 12 months and is in an elite spot today vs. the Pelicans. He’s particularly appealing on DraftKings, where his $9,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Value

Mikal Bridges has been a nice source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.11 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He doesn’t offer much in terms of upside — he has just three games with at least 30 DraftKings points all season — but his cheap salary will help you squeeze in multiple studs on today’s slate.

Fast Break

Otto Porter continues to come off the bench for the Washington Wizards, but that hasn’t stopped him from being a fantasy monster recently. He’s averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over the past month — which trails only George and Kevin Durant at the small forward position — and he’s averaged 35.3 DraftKings points over his past five games. He’s priced at just $6,100 on DraftKings, and very few players in that price range can match his upside.

Darius Miller is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel and should see a big role for the Pelicans on today’s slate. He’s currently projected for 32 minutes, and players with a comparable salary and minute projection have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.81. That said, Miller has averaged just 0.51 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so don’t expect him to put up a monster performance.

Power Forward

Stud

Julius Randle is coming off a disappointing outing yesterday, but his stock is still pointing up with Davis out of the lineup. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +4.1% in games without Davis this season, resulting in an average of 40.89 DraftKings points per game. He leads the power forward position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.

Value

T.J. Warren has been ruled out for today’s contest vs. the Blazers, which makes Josh Jackson an appealing value option. He started the second half in place of Warren in their last contest and has seen a usage bump of +3.0% in games without Warren this season. He’s averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has the potential to play more than 30 minutes, which would make him a steal at just $5,300.

Fast Break

Kyle Kuzma is coming off a dreadful performance in his last game, scoring just 18.4 Fanduel points vs. the Golden State Warriors. That said, he scored 49.1 and 52.6 FanDuel points in the two games prior, and his salary has decreased to just $7,100 for today’s matchup with the Timberwolves. This is an excellent opportunity to buy low on him, especially since he could carry less ownership after a dud.

The Warriors are a really interesting team on today’s slate. Their implied team total of 122.0 trails only the Thunder’s, which obviously makes them a team to target. That said, we still don’t really know what to expect from their big names as DeMarcus Cousins works his way back into the rotation.

One way to get some exposure without breaking the bank is by targeting Draymond Green. He’s priced at just $6,000 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%, and he’s been well worth his salary recently. He was limited to just 22 minutes in his most recent contest but had scored at least 33 DraftKings points in each of the three previous games. His ability to pile up fantasy points without scoring is also really appealing.

Center

Stud

Karl-Anthony Towns might have the highest ceiling on today’s slate outside of Westbrook. He’s been dominant over the past month, averaging 57.7 DraftKings points per game, and he’s scored at least 61.0 DraftKings points in three of his past five contests. He’s in an excellent spot today vs. the Lakers, who have struggled with opposing centers all season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.71 on DraftKings, which is the second-highest mark at the position.

Value

Today’s slate is really hurting for value options, which makes Jahlil Okafor one of the easiest plays of the day. He’s filled in admirably for Davis in the Pelicans’ past two contests, playing at least 31 minutes and logging at least 40.0 DraftKings points in each contest. He’s priced at just $4,900 for today’s matchup with the Thunder, and it’s hard to envision a scenario where he doesn’t return value at that price tag.

Fast Break

The best matchup at the position belongs to Jusuf Nurkic, who owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.33 on DraftKings vs. the Suns. He’s been a strong option recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games, but his salary has remained stagnant at $8,000. That’s simply too cheap, giving Nurkic a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Ivica Zubac could be an interesting value option on FanDuel, where his $4,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 68%. He’s averaged 1.22 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has played at least 20.5 minutes in each of his past three games.

News Updates

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.

Pictured: Pelicans C Jahlil Okafor
Photo Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports