The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard has been a fantastic fantasy asset recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.33 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s currently questionable to suit up due to an ankle injury but has been extremely durable throughout his career: He’s missed just one game so far this season.
If he does play, he’s in an excellent spot against the Nets. Brooklyn has struggled against PGs this season, giving Lillard and Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.86 on DraftKings. The Blazers’ implied team total of 115.75 also ranks fourth on the slate. Lillard is one of the best pure values of the day on DraftKings, where his $8,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.35 with a comparable salary (per our Trends tool).
Value
Tyler Johnson has yet to really make an impact with the Suns despite seeing a solid handful of minutes. He’s played at least 27 minutes in each of his first three games with his new team but has failed to score more than 21.25 DraftKings points in any of them.
That could change against the Cavaliers. They’ve been the worst defensive team in the league by a wide margin this season, allowing 114.3 points per 100 possessions. He’s a nice buy low target, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 77%.
Fast Break
Joel Embiid is expected to miss the next week or so due to a sprained left knee, which increases the appeal of Ben Simmons against the Heat. He’s only seen a slight usage bump in games without Embiid since the acquisition of Jimmy Butler, but he’s still averaged a team-high 43.19 DraftKings points in those contests. He’s also seen a price decrease of $800 over the past month on DraftKings, where he leads all PGs with 14 Pro Trends.
Chris Paul hasn’t posted gaudy fantasy results since returning from injury, but he’s increased his fantasy production to 1.24 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. It’s definitely in the Rockets’ best interest to ease James Harden’s workload before the playoffs start, which makes Paul an interesting pivot for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Shooting Guard
Stud
Speaking of Harden, it’s hard not to like him against the Lakers. They’ve played at the third fastest pace this season, making this one of the most extreme pace-up spots of the day, and the Rockets’ implied team total of 118.25 ranks second on the slate. Harden has torched the Lakers in his last two matchups, scoring 78.0 and 86.5 DraftKings points.
Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: James Harden
Harden has massive upside in this contest even if he does cede some of his workload to Paul. Harden has seen a price decrease of $1,800 over the past month on DraftKings, and his current $11,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Bogdan Bogdanovic has been a wonderful value for most of the season and is just flat out underpriced at $4,500 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute this season and is currently projected for 28.8 minutes in our NBA Models. His matchup against the Warriors could also work in his favor: Bogdanovic scored 42.0 DraftKings points in his most recent matchup with the defending champs.
Fast Break
C.J. McCollum is one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel, where his $6,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s also increased his fantasy production to 1.11 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his 12 Pro Trends are tied for second at the position. He’s definitely worth consideration regardless of Lillard’s status but would become close to a must play if he’s ultimately ruled out.
Caris LeVert suffered a gruesome leg injury earlier this season but has shown no ill effects since returning to the lineup. He’s averaged 1.19 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which trails only Harden and D’Angelo Russell at the SG position. He’s seen his playing time steadily increase prior to the All-Star break, culminating with 30.5 minutes in his most recent game.
Small Forward
Stud
Jimmy Butler is priced at a nice discount compared to the most expensive SFs on this slate but should be able to provide stud-like production. He’s been the primary beneficiary with Embiid out of the lineup this season, averaging 41.33 DraftKings points per game. The result is an average Plus/Minus of +6.6. He’s underpriced at $7,200 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Harrison Barnes is coming off a whopping 41 minutes in his most recent contest, and he responded by scoring 45.25 DraftKings points. Barnes hasn’t displayed a ton of upside for most of the season — he’s averaged just 0.81 DraftKings points per minute over the past month — but his fantasy outlook could be on the rise playing for a fast-paced offense like the Kings’. Either way, it’s hard to ignore that kind of potential playing time at $4,700 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
JJ Redick might the member of the 76ers you want to target on FanDuel. He’s priced at $5,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 77%. He’s also seen a usage bump of +5.6% in four games without Embiid this season, giving him nice upside at his current salary.
Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Giannis Antetokounmpo put on a show at the All-Star game, scoring a game-high 38 points on what seemed like all dunks. He’s been a tremendous fantasy target recently as well: He’s averaged 1.90 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and a +7.71 Plus/Minus over his past 10 games. He’s an elite target on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
Power Forward
Stud
The PF position is pretty thin, with only two players owning a salary above $7,000 on FanDuel.
Tobias Harris is one of those options, and he should benefit from the absence of Embiid on this slate. Harris obviously hasn’t spent a ton of minutes with the 76ers — and only 46 of those minutes have come with Embiid off the court — but it’s not much of a stretch to think that he’ll post a higher usage rate with Embiid out of the lineup. Harris has also seen a price decrease of $1,000 over the past month on FanDuel, where he leads the position with 13 Pro Trends.
Value
Accurately predicting the big man rotation in Miami is one of the most difficult tasks in NBA DFS, but Bam Adebayo appears to be in Erik Spolestra’s good graces at the moment. Adebayo played at least 25 minutes in two of the past three games and has scored at least 22.0 DraftKings points in both of them. He’s in a great spot against the 76ers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.01 on DraftKings, and he’s dirt-cheap at $3,500.
Fast Break
Kyle Kuzma doesn’t exactly offer the same upside with LeBron James back in the lineup, but that’s not much of an issue at Kuzma’s current salary on DraftKings. He’s seen a price decrease of $1,000 over the past month, and his $5,900 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. Kuzma has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.45 with a comparable salary this season.
Kevin Love is the ultimate GPP target on FanDuel. He’s averaged 1.35 FanDuel points per minute since returning from injury and is in a dream spot against the Suns. His $5,700 salary also results in a Bargain Rating of 99%. He hasn’t played more than 15.5 minutes since returning from injury, but he has huge upside if he sees increased playing time.
Center
Stud
Jusuf Nurkic is in a potential smash spot against the Nets. They’ve given up huge games to opposing centers all season, giving Nurkic an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.04 on DraftKings. His production has decreased a bit over the past month, but he’s still averaging a very healthy 1.21 DraftKings points per minute. He scored 51.75 DraftKings points in his first meeting against the Nets this season and has similar upside on this slate.
Value
DeMarcus Cousins has gradually increased his playing time since returning from injury, culminating with greater than 28 minutes in his last game before the All-Star break. That’s bad news for the Sacramento Kings, who have struggled against opposing centers this season. Cousins owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.54 on DraftKings, where his $6,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. This is also a #RevengeGame for those who enjoy a good narrative.
Fast Break
Ante Zizic is coming off 30 minutes in his most recent contest and is an interesting pivot on FanDuel if you’re fading Love. Zizic benefits from the same elite matchup, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.38, and his $4,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Al Horford has posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.77 over his past 10 games on DraftKings and remains underpriced at $6,000 against theBucks. It results in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and Horford scored 38.75 DraftKings points in his first matchup against the Bucks this season.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Blazers C Jusuf Nurkic
Photo Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
