The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a two-game slate starting at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
How you choose to handle the Blazers and Nuggets is going to be a huge factor on today’s slate. Both teams are coming off a grueling quadruple overtime game in their last contest, so it’s fair to question if both teams will struggle with fatigue. That said, the over is actually 7-6 against the spread in the playoffs when both teams are coming off at least two overtimes, so it’s possible that the fatigue narrative is being given too much credit.
Damian Lillard headlines the PG position, and he’s coming off 58 minutes in his last contest. He scored 51.5 DraftKings points, resulting in a Plus/Minus of +5.59, but his per-minute output in that contest is actually pretty disappointing. The Nuggets have done their best to make someone other than Lillard beat them in this series, and he’s posted a usage rate of 26.1% or less in each of his past two games. He offers the highest ceiling at the PG position, but he’s far from a lock at his current salary.
Value
The Raptors are dealing with an absolutely massive injury right now, as Pascal Siakam is currently doubtful with a calf injury. His absence would open up a lot of minutes and usage for the rest of the squad.
Fred VanVleet is one player who could potentially take on a larger role. He’s played 21 minutes or fewer in each of his past two contests, but he’s currently projected for 24 minutes in the FantasyLabs NBA Models. He’s averaged 0.87 FanDuel points per minute with Siakam off the court this season, so he doesn’t need much playing time to pay off his $3,700 salary.
Fast Break
Kyle Lowry isn’t priced like a stud at $6,100 on DraftKings, but he could easily provide stud-like production if Siakam is ruled out. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute with Siakam off the court this season, and he’s played at least 37.5 minutes in each of the first three games of this series. He’s an elite target on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 95%.
We’ve officially entered the part of the season where players are being priced below $3,000 on DraftKings. Seth Curry checks in at just $2,700 on today’s slate, which makes him an interesting punt play. He has a lot of bust potential, but he has a ceiling of close to 10x if everything breaks his way.
Shooting Guard
Stud
It’s not surprising that C.J. McCollum has thrived over the past two games given Lillard’s struggles. They’re negatively correlated, so choosing between the two appears to be the wise move in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) unless you’re banking on another 4OT contest.
McCollum has increased his production to 1.01 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s played at least 40 regulation minutes in each of his past two contests. He’s a much stronger value than Lillard across the industry.
Value
The Raptors are going to be a very popular source of value today if Siakam is unable to suit up. Danny Green has played at least 31.8 minutes in each of the first three games of this series, and he’s currently projected for 36. He doesn’t offer much of a ceiling, but he’s a solid floor play for cash games.
Fast Break
Gary Harris continues to be underpriced on FanDuel, where his $5,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%. He’s posted a Plus/Minus of at least +6.2 in three of his past four contests, and he’s logged at least 40.5 minutes in each of them.
The 76ers’ lead the slate with an implied team total of 108.5 points, and Jimmy Butler is one of the best pure values on DraftKings. His $7,500 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’s scored at least 54.25 DraftKings points in each of his past two games. He has the highest upside at the SG position.
Small Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard is going to command massive ownership on today’s slate, but anything less than 100% is probably not enough. He’s dominated offensively in this series, scoring at least 33 points in all three contests, and he should see one of the largest bumps in usage on the team if Siakam is ruled out. He saw a usage bump of +2.9% without Siakam during the regular season, resulting in an average of 1.41 DraftKings points per minute. Leonard is currently projected for 43.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which gives him a massive floor and ceiling on today’s slate.
Value
Norman Powell is another player who is priced below $3,000 on DraftKings, and he has big upside at that price tag. He’s seen a usage bump of +2.2% with Siakam off the court this season and should see a few additional minutes if he’s out of the lineup. He’s one of the only members of the Raptors other than Lowry and Leonard who is capable of creating his own shot.
Fast Break
Rodney Hood has emerged as a key bench contributor for the Blazers in this series. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games and is currently projected for 24 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s a strong value on DraftKings, where his $3,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
J.J. Redick has seen a strong reduction in value during the postseason, but his salary on FanDuel has dropped too low. He’s priced at just $4,300, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%, which makes him cheaper than guys like Hood, Moe Harkless and Will Barton. He’s a prime buy-low candidate.
Power Forward
Stud
Tobias Harris has posted a negative Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of his past two games, but he’s been one of the most reliable options at the PF position this season. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 82% over the past year on FanDuel, and his average of 1.01 FanDuel points per minute over the past month is tied for the top mark at the position.
Value
Serge Ibaka is another member of the Raptors who could benefit from the injury to Siakam. He’s yet to play more than 19.4 minutes in this series, but the Raptors could choose to move him into the starting lineup and play big in Game 4. He’s averaged 1.11 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he can do some damage if given the opportunity to play big minutes. Ibaka is a steal at just $3,600 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Al-Farouq Aminu is a solid value option on DraftKings, where his $4,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%. He has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this season and is currently projected for 28.5 minutes in our NBA Models.
Zach Collins is another potential option for the Blazers. He’s been better than Aminu on a per-minute basis over the past month, and he’s priced at a very reasonable $3,100 on DraftKings for Game 4. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two games, and he scored 24.0 DraftKings points in his last contest.
Center
Stud
The decision at the top of the center position today comes down to a choice between Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid. Both players are coming off monster performances in their last games, although Jokic was obviously aided by the fact that he played just under 65 minutes.
The biggest concern with Jokic today is fatigue. In addition to playing the most minutes in that game, he’s not exactly the picture of athleticism:
The legend says Nikola Jokic is still running to get to the court pic.twitter.com/JuRMG0m1Lj
— Max Gaudreau (@maxgaudreauruel) October 25, 2018
That pushes the needle in Embiid’s favor on DraftKings. He scored 61.5 DraftKings points in just 28.2 minutes in his last game, and his average of 1.83 DraftKings points per minute over the past month is the top mark on the slate. He’s also $1,100 cheaper than Jokic on DraftKings, where his $9,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Marc Gasol has played big minutes in this series to try and serve as the Embiid stopper. He hasn’t exactly thrived in that role, but he has provided decent fantasy value in his past two games. He’s scored at least 23.75 DraftKings points in both despite shooting just 25% from the field. He’s one of the best values of the day at $4,800.
Fast Break
Enes Kanter leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on DaftKings and continues to provide excellent fantasy value. He’s played huge minutes recently, logging at least 30.8 in each of his past five games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all of them. That’s not exactly a surprise given his average of 1.21 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Embiid is the clear choice if you’re paying up at center on DraftKings, but Jokic deserves some consideration on FanDuel. He’s $900 cheaper than Embiid there, and he should be expected to play significantly more minutes. His per-minute production is down in the postseason, but he has scored at least 66.0 FanDuel points in four of his past five games.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Raptors PF Serge Ibaka (9)
Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
