The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a four-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
De’Aaron Fox has been a nice source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.56 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s scored at least 40.75 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, including at least 49.75 in each of his past two. He’s also been one of the most reliable options over the past month, posting a Consistency Rating of 92%.
Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sacramento Kings guard De’Aaron Fox (5).
Fox is in a nice spot today vs. the San Antonio Spurs. They’ve struggled against opposing point guard s this season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.45. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $8,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Value
Patrick Beverley was limited to just 23 minutes yesterday in a blowout win vs. the Cavaliers, but he should return to his normal workload on today’s slate. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s underpriced at $4,800 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 89%.
Fast Break
The Spurs are in a big pace-up spot vs. the Kings, who have played at the second fastest pace this season. Their implied team total of 118.5 ranks second on the slate and represents a large increase compared to their season average (111.9), which makes them a strong team to target.
Patty Mills is a cheap way to get exposure to them, particularly on FanDuel at just $3,600. He hasn’t been playing a ton of minutes recently, but he doesn’t need to play much to pay off his current salary.
The Nuggets are another team with a strong matchup on today’s slate. They’re taking on the Washington Wizards, who rank just 28th in defensive efficiency this season. Jamal Murray has an excellent individual matchup, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.07, and he’s averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s a nice value at $6,400 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 92%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
DeMar DeRozan has seen a slight uptick in fantasy production over the past month, averaging 1.19 DraftKings points per minute. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.29 over his past 10 games, including posting a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six.
Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Antonio Spurs guard DeMar DeRozan (10), forward Dante Cunningham (33).
That said, his salary has actually decreased by $400 over that time frame, which makes him a strong target in a great matchup vs. the Kings. His current $8,000 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Value
The Grizzlies are going to be shorthanded on today’s slate, with Mike Conley, Avery Bradley, and Joakim Noah all ruled out with various injuries. That opens up a larger role than usual for Delon Wright, who has been a strong source of value recently.
He’s scored at least 30 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +9.43 over that time frame. He’s currently projected for 35.5 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Wright is an excellent option at his current salary across the industry.
Fast Break
Tyler Dorsey is another potential source of value for the Grizzlies. He hasn’t been as effective as Wright on a per minute basis, but he’s still averaged a respectable 0.79 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s priced at just $4,500 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 85%.
Bogdan Bogdanovic is coming off 45.8 FanDuel points in his most recent contest and has seen a price decrease of -$1,200 over the past month. He owns 10 Pro Trends for today’s matchup vs. the Spurs, and players with a comparable number of Pro Trends and salaries have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.90 (per the Trends tool).
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant stands out in his own tier at the small forward position on today’s slate. He’s priced at $10,100 on FanDuel, and no one else at the position is priced above $7,500. Durant has struggled recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -5.82 over his past 10 games, but he has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two games.
Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Golden State Warriors forward Kevin Durant (35).
He has the highest ceiling, floor, and median projections at the small forward position, which should make him a popular choice on today’s slate.
Value
Will Barton has struggled in his past two games, averaging just 9.35 FanDuel points per game, but he’s in a much friendlier matchup today vs. the Wizards. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.27 on DraftKings, which is one of the best marks at the position. He’s priced fairly across the industry and is a nice way to get some cheap exposure to the Nuggets.
Fast Break
Dwayne Bacon has seen a big spike in playing time for the Hornets recently. He’s logged at least 31.4 minutes in each of his past four games, including at least 36.4 in each of his past two. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all four of those contests and should continue to play a big role for the Hornets after Nic Batum picked up a DNP-CD in their last contest. Bacon is an excellent value at $4,500 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Trevor Ariza remains out for the Wizards, which increases the appeal for Troy Brown. He’s averaged a healthy 0.84 FanDuel points per minute this season and is coming off 29.7 minutes in his last contest. He’s been a nice option when given the chance to play extended minutes this season, and his $4,300 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%.
Power Forward
Stud
LaMarcus Aldridge is one of the top options on today’s slate. He owns an elite matchup vs. the Kings, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.50 on DraftKings.
Credit: John Glaser-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LaMarcus Aldridge
He’s projected for a position-best 36 minutes in our NBA Models, and Aldridge has averaged a stout 1.18 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s priced at a discount at $8,100 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Value
JaMychal Green is coming off 36.0 FanDuel points in his last game and should be a factor for the shorthanded Grizzlies on today’s slate. He’s played at least 22.8 minutes in each of his past two games and has averaged 0.97 FanDuel points per minute this season, and his $4,000 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Fast Break
Draymond Green has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games and remains affordable at just $5,900 on DraftKings. He doesn’t possess a ton of upside given the Warriors’ sheer volume of high-usage players, but he seems pretty safe at his current salary.
The Kings have the potential to be pretty shorthanded in the frontcourt today. Harry Giles has already been ruled out, while Marvin Bagley is currently listed as questionable. Their absences would leave a lot of potential playing time for Nemanja Bjelica, who has averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s currently projected for just 5-8% ownership, which makes him an appealing contrarian option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Center
Stud
The center position is easily the strongest on today’s slate. It starts at the top with Nikola Jokic, who has averaged 1.56 DraftKings points per minute this season. He owns an elite matchup vs. the Wizards, who have been crushed on the glass in addition to struggling defensively this season. His 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position, while his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.78 ranks second.
Value
Jakob Poeltl doesn’t really play enough minutes to provide much of a ceiling, but he’s a nice value at just $3,800 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 21.8 DraftKings points per game over the past month, resulting in a Consistency Rating of 85%. He’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need much playing time to potentially pay off his current salary. Poeltl is also in a nice spot vs. the Kings, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.18.
Fast Break
Jonas Valanciunas could very easily be considered a stud on today’s slate. The only thing that has stopped him from being a fantasy monster this season is a lack of playing time, but that shouldn’t be an issue today with Noah out of the lineup.
Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jonas Valanciunas (17).
He’s averaged 1.45 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 32.5 minutes, which makes him an elite value at $7,900 on DraftKings. Valanciunas scored 74.5 DraftKings with Noah out of the lineup yesterday, and his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.72 is the top mark on the slate. Pairing him with Jokic is a very reasonable option, but give me Valanciunas if I can only choose one.
DeMarcus Cousins could fly a bit under the radar compared to Jokic and Valanciunas, which makes him an interesting pivot for GPPs. He’s the best pure value of the trio on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 97%, and he’s slightly cheaper at $7,400 as well.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Grizzlies C Jonas Valanciunas (17)
Photo Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
