The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a four-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Steph Curry got the night off yesterday for the Warriors, but he should be back in action tonight vs. the Detroit Pistons. He’s priced very fairly at $9,000 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%, and he has the potential to see a larger workload with DeMarcus Cousins out of the lineup.
Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30).
Curry has seen a team-high usage bump of +5.3% with Cousins off the court since he joined the rotation on January 18th, resulting in an average of 1.41 DraftKings points per minute. He’s also averaged 47.25 DraftKings points in four full games without Cousins over that time frame.
Value
The Lakers have been decimated by injuries recently, which has opened up a role for Alex Caruso. He’s taken advantage, posting a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games on FanDuel, and he’s averaged a strong 0.90 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
He’s currently projected for 27.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which should give him a chance to pay off his reasonable salary across the industry. Caruso also owns a good matchup vs. the Sacramento Kings, who have played at the second fastest pace in the league this season.
Fast Break
The best matchup of the day belongs to the Houston Rockets, who are taking on the New Orleans Pelicans. The Pels rank third in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency this season, and the Rockets’ implied team total of 119.5 is the top mark on the slate.
That makes Chris Paul a strong option at $7,000 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.85 is the top mark at the position.
Kyrie Irving is the best pure value at the position on DraftKings, where his $8,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s another point guard with a strong matchup — he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.05 — and he has the potential to see a larger workload given the Celtics current injury situation. They will likely be without both Al Horford and Jayson Tatum, and Irving has averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute with both players off the court this season.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden has put up some ridiculous stat lines over his past two games. He’s scored at least 57 points in each contest, resulting in an average of 84.5 DraftKings points per game. He continues to dominate the ball for the Houston Rockets, and his average usage rate of 40.6% is the top mark in the league by a wide margin.
Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13).
That makes him an appealing option in an excellent matchup vs. the Pelicans. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.36, and the Rockets are also in the largest pace-up spot of the day. He’s very reasonably priced at $11,500 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 95%.
Value
Jaylen Brown is a candidate to move into the starting lineup for the Celtics tonight, but he should see a boost in playing time either way. He’s averaged 0.92 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he can do some damage with a few extra minutes. He’s underpriced across the industry.
Fast Break
Eric Gordon is one of the best values at the position on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $4,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%, and he benefits from the same elite matchup as Harden. He’s coming off just 13.4 FanDuel points in his last game, but he still played greater than 38 minutes. This is an excellent opportunity to buy low on him.
Frank Jackson has shooting guard eligibility on DraftKings, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.12 over his past 10 games. He should continue to see a bunch of playing time for the shorthanded Pelicans, and he’s averaged a respectable 0.76 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s priced at a discount at $4,500 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant had an opportunity to shine yesterday with Curry out of the lineup but was unable to take advantage. He did post a usage rate of 44.4% but shot just 9-25 from the field before resting most of the fourth quarter in a blowout loss. Durant has now posted an average Plus/Minus of -7.27 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, which is almost unfathomable considering his ability.
He’s been priced down to just $8,900 for tonight’s matchup vs. the Pistons, which is one of his lowest marks of the entire season. He should see another increased workload with Cousins out of the lineup — he’s seen a usage bump of +2.6% with Cousins off the court — which makes him an appealing buy low option.
Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Warriors forward Kevin Durant.
Durant is going to break out of his slump eventually, and his reduced salary means he’ll provide excellent value when he does.
Value
Nemanja Bjelica has had a rollercoaster of a season. He started the year playing big minutes and provided excellent value, but his playing time fell off a cliff as the season progressed. That said, he has resurrected his value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.37 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s currently projected for 28.8 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s averaged 1.00 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which makes him an excellent target at just $5,200.
Fast Break
Kenrich Williams has scored at least 25.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, which gives him some appeal at $4,200 on DraftKings. He’s not the strongest producer when he’s on the court – he’s averaged just 0.68 DraftKings points per minute over the past month – but he should continue to see significant minutes for the shorthanded Pelicans. He’s underpriced on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Rudy Gay has increased his fantasy production to 1.10 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, yet his salary has actually decreased by -$500 over that time frame. He’s scored at least 31.0 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, so he has decent upside at $5,400.
Power Forward
Stud
LaMarcus Aldridge is one of the best values of the day on DraftKings at $7,500. He’s been a reliable producer over the past month, posting a Consistency Rating of 91% while averaging 41.3 DraftKings points per game.
He’s in an appealing spot today vs. the shorthanded Celtics’ frontcourt, which can struggle against opposing big men to begin with. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.61, and Aldridge scored 55.75 DraftKings points in his first matchup vs. the Celtics this season. Aldridge typically doesn’t command much ownership as well, making him an elite target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
On the other side of the same matchup, Marcus Morris should be one of the primary beneficiaries from the injuries to Tatum and Horford. He’s seen a usage bump of +2.7% with both players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.98 FanDuel points per minute. He’s currently projected for 35.5 minutes in our NBA Models, making him an elite option at just $5,100.
Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Marcus Morris
Fast Break
Sticking with the Celtics, Daniel Thies looks like a nice value at the near minimum across the industry. He should see a solid handful of minutes at the center position, especially if Aron Baynes is unable to suit up (currently questionable). He’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need much playing time to pay off his salary.
Kyle Kuzma owns a Bargain Rating of 95% on FanDuel, which makes him an interesting target for GPPs. He hasn’t provided much value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -1.26 over his past 10 games, but he has big upside at his salary.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond has been an excellent value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.26 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. That said, his salary has actually decreased by -$300 over the past month, and his $8,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He leads the position with 14 Pro Trends, and his matchup vs. the Warriors results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.08. He’s an elite option in all formats.
Value
Andrew Bogut could earn a spot start tonight for the Warriors, which makes him an interesting option at the absolute minimum on FanDuel. He’s averaged 1.08 FanDuel points per minute since joining the Warriors and is currently projected for 19 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s one of the strongest options if you’re looking to save at the position.
Fast Break
JaVale McGee has been an elite producer recently, averaging 1.35 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s in a strong spot tonight vs. the Kings, who have been crushed by opposing centers for most of the season.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Celtics F Marcus Morris (13)
Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA Today Sports
