The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s main slate differs by site: DraftKings features a three-game slate starting at 3:30 p.m. ET, while FanDuel features a two-game slate starting at 5 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The PG options are thin at the top on today’s slate, with Kyle Lowry serving as the only true stud. He’s been a decent source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.47 on DraftKings over his past 10 games.
He should also see a nice boost in value with Kawhi Leonard out of the lineup. He’s seen a usage bump of +3.7% in 16 games without Leonard this reason, resulting in an average of 41.86 DraftKings points per game. He’s a nice value on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 92%.
Value
Patrick Beverley is coming off 28.75 DraftKings points in his last contest and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.06 over his past 10 games. He’s increased his fantasy production to 0.92 DraftKings points per minute over the past month while also seeing a solid increase in playing time. He has a tough matchup today vs. the Denver Nuggets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.03, but he’s simply too cheap at $4,500.
Fast Break
Emmanuel Mudiay returned to the Knicks lineup in his last game and did not disappoint, scoring 31.7 FanDuel points in 26.5 minutes. He leads the PG position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and players with a comparable salary and number of Pro Trends have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.65 (per the Trends tool). He’s also one of the best values at the position given his Bargain Rating of 88%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Lou Williams has been doing what he does best recently: getting buckets. He’s averaged a stout 1.38 DraftKings points per minute over the past month – which is the top mark at the position by a significant margin – and he’s played at least 32 minutes in two of his past three games. He leads all SGs with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Value
There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the minutes in New York right now, which makes it an excellent target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). Its players may not provide a ton of safety, but that uncertainty results in low price tags and potentially low ownership.
Damyean Dotson is coming off 29.1 FanDuel points in his last game and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four outings. His minutes have been pretty volatile over that time frame – he’s played 30 minutes or greater in two games and 22.5 minutes or less in the others – but he’s averaged a respectable 0.74 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He doesn’t need to play much to potentially pay off his $4,300 salary.
Allonzo Trier also found success in his last game, and he might be the more appealing target on DraftKings. He owns one of the better individual matchups at the position, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.14 vs. the San Antonio Spurs.
Fast Break
The Spurs have arguably the best matchup of the day vs. the Knicks. They rank just 27th in defensive efficiency, and the Spurs’ resulting implied team total of 116.0 points represents a solid increase when compared to their season average (112.4). DeMar DeRozan hasn’t exactly been a fantasy monster recently, but he can do some serious damage in this matchup.
Small Forward
Stud
Danilo Gallinari has struggled with injuries recently, which has unfortunately been the case for the majority of his career. That said, he did increase his playing time to just under 31 minutes in his last game, and he’s currently projected for 31.5 minutes in our NBA Models. He figures to be one of the biggest winners from the Tobias Harris trade, as he’s seen a usage bump of +2.3% with Harris off the court this season. He’s a particularly nice option on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 86%.
Value
Rudy Gay is simply too cheap at $6,000 on FanDuel. He’s averaged 1.12 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has played at least 32 minutes in two of his past three games. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 90% over the past month on FanDuel, where he leads the position with 10 Pro Trends.
The Spurs also have a pair of interesting punt options at the position. Davis Bertans and Marco Belinelli are both projected for a solid handful of minutes, and both players have averaged at least 0.81 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Bertans appears to be the preferred option on DraftKings (77% Bargain Rating), while Belinelli is the superior choice on FanDuel (82% Bargain Rating).
Fast Break
The Nuggets are a tough team to predict from a fantasy perspective given their depth, but they’re definitely a team you’re going to want some exposure to on today’s slate. They lead all teams with an implied team total of 121.75 in a pace-up spot vs. the Clippers.
Will Barton is one way to target the Nuggets at a relatively cheap price. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games and has averaged a strong 0.89 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Power Forward
Stud
LaMarcus Aldridge has seen a healthy price decrease across the industry over the past month, which makes him a really appealing buy-low option vs. the Knicks. They’ve struggled against opposing big men all season, giving Aldridge an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.50 on DraftKings. He’s also increased his fantasy production to 1.27 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he leads the position in Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Value
The Knicks are going to be without DeAndre Jordan today, which provides some value with their frontcourt. Noah Vonleh has been fantastic when given the opportunity this season, averaging 0.94 FanDuel points per minute. He’s also seen a price decrease of -$2,100 over the past month on FanDuel, and his current $3,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%. He’s impossible not to like at that price tag.
Luke Kornet should also see a few additional minutes, and he’s the better value of the two on DraftKings. He’s currently projected for 24 minutes in our NBA Models, and Kornet has been a decent value when given the chance to play this season.
Fast Break
The addition of Marc Gasol has done very little to dampen the fantasy value of Serge Ibaka. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.33 over his past 10 games and has scored at least 38 DraftKings points in five of his past six contests. No one on the team has seen a larger bump in usage in games without Leonard this season, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +6.9 on DraftKings. He’s also one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 92%.
Center
Stud
Today’s slate is light on true superstars, which should make Nikola Jokic one of the most popular options. The fact that he’s in a dream spot vs. the Clippers doesn’t hurt either: He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.01 on DraftKings. No one on the slate can match his ceiling projection, which is nearly 15 points more than every other player’s in our NBA Models.
Value
Mitchell Robinson figures to be the biggest winner from the absence of Jordan. He’s currently projected for 27.5 minutes and has averaged an outstanding 1.42 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s been priced up pretty aggressively on FanDuel but remains very affordable at $4,600 on DraftKings. The only real concern is foul trouble: Robinson has struggled with fouls all season, averaging 6.1 per 36 minutes, and he’ll face a difficult matchup vs. Aldridge and the Spurs.
Fast Break
Ivica Zubac has been an excellent contributor on a per minute basis this season and could potentially see a few additional minutes today to combat the size of Jokic. He doesn’t need to play much to potentially pay off his minimal salary across the industry.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Raptors PG Kyle Lowry
Photo Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
