NBA Fantasy Breakdown (Sun. 4/21): Don’t Sleep on Damian Lillard in Tournaments

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Sunday features a four-game slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

After scoring 21 points in 20 minutes in an easy Game 3 win, Stephen Curry‘s playing time should return to normal as the Warriors look to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. Curry’s +10.3 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings paces all players on the slate.

Value

Darren Collison began the postseason with a rough 3-for-11 shooting performance in Game 1 against Boston, but came back to shoot 11-of-21 over the past two games. He has failed to hit value in all three games, mainly because his teammates have converted only 11 of his 26 potential assists into buckets.

Still, Collison owns the top Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel, as well as the top mark among point guards under $8,800 on DraftKings.

Fast Break

Damian Lillard scored at least 29 points in each of his last six games against Oklahoma City, averaging a +15.39 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 100% Consistency Rating in those contests. We have Lillard projected for only half as much ownership as Curry and Russell Westbrook, which makes him the best tournament play of the three as Portland looks to prevent OKC from evening the series at two games apiece.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Lou Williams didn’t get as much playing time as usual in Game 3 as the Clippers went down without the same fight they showcased in their historic comeback win in Game 2, but Doc Rivers is unlikely to wave the white flag early for a second straight home game. Sweet Lou holds roughly a 1.5-point edge over C.J. McCollum in Projected Plus/Minus on both sites.

Value

Klay Thompson has been an afterthought offensively for Golden State against the Clippers thus far, failing to eclipse an 18.2% usage rate in all three games of the series. Regression should be on Thompson’s side, however, as his usage rate was 25.2% during the regular season. He’s a top-two value on both sites.

Fast Break

Dennis Schroeder has logged at least 32 minutes in two of OKC’s three postseason games thus far. Potential minutes in the mid-to-high 30s coupled with projected ownership in the 10% range give Schroeder a top-two Leverage Rating on both sites. Also increasing Schroeder’s appeal as a tournament play is the fact that he has the strongest negative correlation to Westbrook of anyone on the Thunder (correlation coefficient of -0.21 on DraftKings, -0.18 on FanDuel).

Small Forward

Stud

Paul George has played 40-plus minutes in all three games of the series thus far and hasn’t played fewer than 36 since March 20. Our NBA Player Models have PG13 projected for a slate-leading 42.9 minutes, which are also enough for a comfortable lead over Kevin Durant in Projected Plus/Minus on both sites.

Value

Danilo Gallinari has alternated between cold and hot shooting performances through the first three games of the Clippers’ series against Golden State, going 4-of-14 in Game 1, 8-of-17 in Game 2, and 2-of-13 in Game 3. A slight price drop coupled with probable regression put Gallinari on the map as one of the top values on the slate at small forward.

Fast Break

The top spot in terms of Leverage Rating among small forwards is held by a different Pacer on each site: Bojan Bogdanovic on DraftKings and Tyreke Evans on FanDuel.

Bogdanovic led the Pacers with 17 field-goal attempts in Game 3, but Evans led them in scoring with 19 points. Both players are negatively correlated, but as the Pacers’ best bets for manufacturing offense, at least one of them should end up with a solid stat line as Indiana looks to avoid the sweep.

Power Forward

Stud

Pascal Siakam has given Orlando fits through three games, but his $1,100 and $900 salary increases on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively, are cutting into his value; the tier below him is more +EV.

Draymond Green stands out on DraftKings, where he has a slate-leading 99% Bargain Rating.

Value

Montrezl Harrell‘s 26-of-34 (76.5%) shooting in Games 1-3 is unsustainable, but his minutes in Game 4 should bounce back to around 30, which is enough to give the NBA’s Seventh Man of the Year the top Projected Plus/Minus of the day at power forward.

Fast Break

Toronto seems content to play out its first-round series against Orlando by living with Aaron Gordon getting open jump shots, and if he’s able to knock a few down, he’s capable of producing a full stat line, as he did in Game 3 with 7 rebounds and 7 assists. Among players at the position, Gordon has a top-two Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and a top-three Leverage rating on DraftKings.

Gordon has also put up much better numbers at home than on the road this season, averaging a +2.4 Plus/Minus and 71% Consistency rating in the Amway Center compared to -0.4 and 52%, respectively, in away games, per our NBA Trends tool.

Center

Stud

A 22-point, 14-rebound double-double with 6 assists and 3 blocks in 39.5 minutes is probably as good as the Magic are going to get from Nikola Vucevic in a tough matchup against Marc Gasol and Toronto’s smothering defense. Despite the two rough outings that proceeded his Game 3 wake-up call, Vucevic’s salary hasn’t dipped enough for him to avoid being one of the worst projected values on the slate among centers.

Value

Boogie who? Andrew Bogut posted 8 points, 14 boards, and 5 assists in 25 minutes as Golden State’s starting center in Game 3. Bogut is easily the top value at center on FanDuel and also ranks third at the position on DraftKings.

Fast Break

Enes Kanter has been kept off the glass in each of the past two games, grabbing only five boards in each. That lackluster rebounding performance is way below expectation for him, but it has brought his salary down to its lowest point of the series on both sites. Kanter leads all centers in Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. He is also second at the position in Leverage Rating on FanDuel, where we project him to garner only 13-16% of ownership.

News Updates

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.