The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a six-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard continues dominate with C.J. McCollum out of the lineup. He’s scored at least 50.0 DraftKings points in six of his past seven games and has scored at least 62.0 DraftKings points in three of them. He’s also posted a Consistency Rating of 92% over the past month and has increased his fantasy production to 1.39 DraftKings points per minute over that time frame.
That said, Lillard is in a difficult spot today vs. the Pistons. The Blazers are playing on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back, and their implied team total of 104.5 points represents a massive decrease when compared to their season average (114.7). Lillard still possesses big upside for the Blazers with McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic out of the lineup, but fading him at his elevated salary seems justified.
Value
Kawhi Leonard will miss today’s game vs. the Bulls for personal reasons, which means its safe to fire up Fred VanVleet. He’s coming off 36.6 FanDuel points with Leonard out of the lineup in his last game and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.5 in 16 games without Leonard this season. The Bulls are also a strong matchup, ranking just tied for 25th in defensive efficiency.
Fast Break
Ben Simmons is priced at a discount at $8,400 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%. That makes him a really strong target today for the 76ers, who will be playing without Joel Embiid for at least the next three games.
Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Philadelphia 76ers guard Ben Simmons (25).
Simmons has dominated with Embiid out of the lineup since the team acquired Tobias Harris on February 8th, averaging 45.58 DraftKings points per game. He leads the point guard position with 12 Pro Trends.
Goran Dragic is coming off a triple-double in his last game, resulting in 56.9 FanDuel points vs. the Dallas Mavericks. He benefitted from Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson being out of the lineup, and both players will miss today’s contest vs. the Knicks as well. Dragic has averaged 0.97 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 33.6 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him an excellent value at just $5,300 on FanDuel.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Fade Devin Booker at your own risk right now. He’s scored at least 50 points in back-to-back games, resulting in an average of 72.25 DraftKings points. He’s dominated the basketball in those contests, posting usage rates of 44.0% and 50.7%, which makes sense considering the Suns are extremely shorthanded at the moment.
He does have a difficult matchup today vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, who have played at the slowest pace in the league this season, but they have allowed an average of 121.1 points over their past seven games. The bottom line is that Booker is commanding a James Harden-like workload at the moment but not a Harden-like price tag.
Value
The Heat have an excellent matchup today vs. the New York Knicks, which makes them a strong team to target given their current injury situation. They have two viable options at the shooting guard position in Dion Waiters and Dwyane Wade.
Credit: Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Miami Heat Guard Dwayne Wade (3).
Waiters is the better bet for minutes, but Wade has averaged a superior 1.09 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. Both players are elite targets on FanDuel, where both own a Bargain Rating of at least 90%.
Fast Break
Danny Green has not seen much playing time recently, but he should see a few additional minutes today with Leonard out of the lineup. He’s priced at just $3,700 on FanDuel and has averaged 0.80 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need much playing time to potentially pay off his current salary.
Wayne Selden has been an awesome value over his past two games, scoring at least 30.4 FanDuel points in each contest. He should continue to play big minutes for the Bulls with Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine out of the lineup, and his $5,000 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.
Small Forward
Stud
The 76ers lead the slate with an implied team total of 116.25 points despite Embiid being out of the lineup, which makes them an elite team to target. Jimmy Butler stands out at the small forward position on DraftKings, where his $7,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
He’s averaged just 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, but he’s seen a team-high usage bump of +2.8% in games without Embiid since February 8th. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.6 in those contests and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.28 vs. the Timberwolves.
Value
JJ Redick looks like the 76ers’ small forward to target on FanDuel, where his $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%. He’s also seen a boost in value in games without Embiid since the acquisition of Harris, averaging 23.64 FanDuel points per game. He’s seen a price decrease of -$200 over the past month, which makes this an excellent time to buy low on Redick.
Fast Break
Mario Hezonja has seen a healthy amount of playing time for the Knicks recently and is projected for 25.5 minutes on today’s slate. He’s averaged 0.82 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his $4,500 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.
Luke Kennard is coming off a poor outing in his last game, where he played just 20 minutes in a blowout win. He should return to his normal workload today vs. the Blazers, which makes him a strong buy-low candidate. He’s only shooting-guard eligible on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 85%, but has dual shooting guard/small forward eligibility on DraftKings.
Power Forward
Stud
Tobias Harris is yet another stud option worth considering for the 76ers. He’s seen a big reduction in fantasy production over the past month, averaging just 0.87 FanDuel points per minute, but his salary has decreased by -$1,000 over the same time frame. His current $7,000 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%, and he leads the position with 13 Pro Trends. He’s averaged 37.3 minutes per game in nine games without Embiid, resulting in an average of 36.7 FanDuel points per game.
Value
Mike Scott should see a nice bump in playing time for the 76ers on today’s slate and is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel.
Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports. PIctured: Philadelphia 76ers forward Mike Scott (1).
He hasn’t been super productive when given an opportunity recently, averaging just 0.61 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, but he has seen a usage bump of +2.1% in games without Embiid since arriving in Philly. He should be a popular punt play on FanDuel, where his score can be dropped if he has a poor game.
Fast Break
Blake Griffin could fly a bit under the radar today on DraftKings, where he’s projected for just 13-16% ownership. That said, his $8,100 salary is about as cheap as he’s been all season and results in a Bargain Rating of 92%. He leads the position with 11 Pro Trends.
Pascal Siakam has been priced up across the industry, but it’s hard to argue against it given his recent production. He’s coming off 49.75 DraftKings points in his last game and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.9 on DraftKings in 21 games without Leonard this season.
Center
Stud
The center position is one of the strongest on the slate, but it’s hard to look past Jonas Valanciunas at $8,000 on DraftKings and $8,500 on FanDuel. He owns an elite matchup vs. the Phoenix Suns, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.35.
Pictured: Memphis Grizzlies center Jonas Valanciunas (17), Photo Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
Valanciunas has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has seen a solid increase in playing time since arriving in Memphis, and he’s averaged 51.6 DraftKings points over his past five games.
Value
Our tour of the Philadelphia 76ers ends with Boban Marjanovic, who offers some value at the center position on today’s slate. He’s priced at just $3,700 on FanDuel and has averaged 1.21 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s averaged just under 20 minutes per game in four games without Embiid this season.
Fast Break
It’s pretty crazy that Hassan Whiteside is priced at just $4,700 on FanDuel, but that’s the case on today’s slate. The massive price drop has been warranted — he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -3.50 over his past 10 games — but he’s still averaged 1.40 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He has huge upside if he sees a spike in minutes on today’s slate, and his reduced price tag removes a lot of the risk as well.
Nikola Vucevic leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $8,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s in a decent spot vs. the Pacers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.23, and he’s scored at least 50.25 DraftKings points in two of his past three games.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: 76ers G Ben Simmons (25)
Photo Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
