The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard has seen a pretty massive price increase across the industry recently, but it’s hard to argue against it. He’s been outstanding, posting a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games on DraftKings and scoring at least 63.5 DraftKings points in each of his past two.
He’s seen a massive boost in value from the injury to C.J. McCollum, who remains out for Saturday’s matchup against the Pistons. Lillard has averaged a usage rate of 38.6% with McCollum off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.57 DraftKings points per minute.
Value
Steph Curry will get the night off for the Warriors, which makes Quinn Cook an intriguing value option. Cook is priced at the absolute minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel and is currently projected for 30.2 minutes in our NBA Models. Cook has averaged 24.02 DraftKings points per game with Curry out of the lineup this season, which would make him one of the best values of the day at his current salary.
Fast Break
The game between the 76ers and Hawks should be one of the best of the day from a fantasy perspective. Both teams have played at one of the faster paces in the league this season — Atlanta ranks first, Philadelphia ranks seventh — and the resulting over/under of 236.5 points ranks first on the slate.
Both teams have interesting options at PG. Ben Simmons is one of the better values at the position on DraftKings, where his $8,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.56, which is the top mark at the position.
Trae Young is the preferred target at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 90%. His matchup isn’t nearly as strong, but he’s averaged a stout 1.24 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He leads the position with 15 Pro Trends.
Tyus Jones remains underpriced on FanDuel, where his $5,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s handling the majority of the PG minutes in Minnesota with Jeff Teague and Derrick Rose both out of the lineup and has scored at least 26.3 FanDuel points in four of his past five games. He does have a difficult matchup against the Grizzlies, but he’s simply too cheap at his current salary.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Devin Booker has been an excellent fantasy producer recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of 7.30 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. The Suns have been decimated by injuries recently, and Booker has been asked to carry a large offensive load.
Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Devin Booker
He has a chance for a big game against the Kings, who have played at the second-fastest pace this season, and the Suns resulting implied team total of 110.0 points represents a significant increase from their season average (107.0). Booker’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.33 is one of the better marks at the position on DraftKings, while his 11 Pro Trends are tied for first.
Value
Justin Holiday hasn’t exactly dominated when he’s been on the court recently, averaging just 0.59 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, but he’s playing massive minutes for the shorthanded Grizzlies. He’s seen at least 38.9 in each of his past two games and he’s currently projected for 35.5 minutes. He remains extremely affordable at $3,900 on FanDuel, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.81 (per our Trends tool).
Fast Break
Dion Waiters has played at least 30.4 minutes in back-to-back games, which makes him an interesting option in an elite matchup against the Wizards. They rank just 27th in defensive efficiency and have played at the ninth fastest pace. He’s a nice option at $4,100 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 92%.
Andrew Wiggins should see a boost in usage with Teague and Rose out of the lineup and has played at least 37.5 minutes in each of his past two games. His lack of peripheral statistics does cap his upside, but he’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute with both players off the court this season.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant has been an absolute disaster recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -7.11 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. That said, his salary has decreased by $1,100 over that time frame, and he should be in a position to succeed with Curry out of the lineup. Durant has seen a massive 14.9% bump in usage with Curry off the court since DeMarcus Cousins joined the rotation on Jan. 18, resulting in an average of 1.62 FanDuel points per minute.
Durant is a very tough fade at his current reduced salary.
Value
Trevor Ariza is doubtful, and his absence would make Troy Brown close to a must-play at the absolute minimum on FanDuel. Brown has averaged a strong 0.91 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and played greater than 32.8 minutes sans Ariza in their last contest.
Fast Break
Jimmy Butler deserves some consideration at $7,100 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s been a reliable option recently, posting a Consistency Rating of 90% over the past month, and is in one of the best spots of the day against the Hawks.
The Heat are pretty shorthanded on the wing at the moment, with both Justise Winslow and Rodney McGruder ruled out with injuries. That should result in a healthy amount of playing time for Josh Richardson, who has averaged 0.86 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s underpriced at $6,300 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 82%.
Power Forward
Stud
Lauri Markkanen had been slumping recently but exploded for 61.25 DraftKings points in his last contest. The Bulls were without Otto Porter and Zach LaVine in that contest, and both could miss Saturday’s contest as well. If that happens, Markkanen looks like one of the best values of the day at just $6,900 on DraftKings.
Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Lauri Markkanen
Markkanen’s price tag has decreased by -$1,000 over the past month and his current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Dario Saric has seen a slight bump in playing time recently, seeing at least 27.9 minutes in each of his past two games. He’s priced at $4,100 on FanDuel and has averaged 0.82 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need to play much more than that to be a value at his current salary. He’s an excellent target on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 96%.
Fast Break
Bobby Portis is an excellent producer when given the opportunity, and he’s been getting plenty of opportunities for the Wizards recently. He’s played at least 35.9 minutes in back-to-back games and has averaged 1.06 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s an excellent target at $5,700 on FanDuel.
No one has been better on a per-minute basis recently than John Collins. He’s averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 30.2 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s underpriced at $7,000 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid has been fantastic recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.89 over his past 10 games on DraftKings and has increased his fantasy production to 1.83 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s in an excellent spot today vs. the Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.85.
Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joel Embiid
Embiid could also see reduced ownership given that most of the attention will be placed on the shorthanded Warriors.
Value
Thomas Bryant entered the starting lineup in the Wizards last game and is expected to remain in the starting lineup against the Heat. He’s averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute this season and is projected for 28.5 minutes. That makes him an excellent option at $4,400 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating 83%.
Fast Break
Jonas Valanciunas has been outstanding over his past two games, scoring 52.25 and 65.5 DraftKings points. He’s been playing big minutes for the shorthanded Grizzlies, but will probably see a smaller workload with Joakim Noah expected to play. Still, Valanciunas has averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his $6,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
DeMarcus Cousins will likely be the most popular option at the center position on this slate. He’s seen a usage bump of +4.7% with Curry off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.33 DraftKings points per minute. He’s massively underpriced at $7,300 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Warriors F Kevin Durant (35)
Photo Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
