The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Golden State Warriors are squaring off in prime time in a battle of marquee PGs.
Russell Westbrook has scored at least 68.0 DraftKings points in each of his past two games and continues to serve as one of the most reliable options in NBA DFS. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 91% over the past month and 93% over the past year on DraftKings. His salary has also decreased by -$700 over the past month, and his current $10,800 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%. He leads the position with 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and the Thunder’s implied team total of 115.25 ranks second on the slate.
Steph Curry hasn’t produced at the same level as Westbrook this season, but Curry will benefit from playing without Kevin Durant (ankle). Curry has seen a team high usage bump of +5.3% in two games without Durant this season, and averaged 55.94 FanDuel points per 36 minutes in eight games without Durant last season. Curry is the preferred option to pay up for on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 82%.
Value
Elfrid Payton has somewhat quietly been a fantasy monster recently. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +12.27 on DraftKings over his past 10 games and has scored at least 51.0 DraftKings points in each of his past three. He’s been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the injury to Jrue Holiday, and he should continue to post big numbers in his absence.
Payton is also in one of the best spots of the day against the Suns, who rank 29th in defensive efficiency this season. The Pelicans’ implied team total of 118.75 also ranks first on the slate. He’s a steal at $6,900 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Ricky Rubio has been limited in two games since returning from injury, playing just 21.75 minutes in both contests, but he should see a few additional minutes as he gets further removed from his injury. He’s been priced down to $4,900 on DraftKings for Saturday’s matchup against the Nets, which gives him big upside given his average of 1.01 DraftKings points per minute this season. The Nets are also an excellent matchup, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.72.
Jalen Brunson has been another strong producer recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.30 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s seen all the minutes he can handle recently, logging at least 34.5 in four of his past five games, and he’s currently projected for 36.5 in our NBA Models. He has an excellent matchup against the Cavaliers, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency by a significant margin.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Tyler Johnson will miss his second straight game for the Suns, which increases the appeal for Devin Booker. Booker has seen a usage bump of +2.9% with Johnson off the court since he joined the team on Feb. 8, and averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Booker also has a strong matchup against the Pelicans, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.33.
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Devin Booker
Booker is a strong target at $8,000 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Sticking with the Suns, Mikal Bridges is just too cheap at $3,800 on DraftKings. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his past 10 contests, yet his salary has actually decreased by -$800 over that time frame. He also saw in boost in playing time in his last contest, logging 37 minutes with Johnson out of the lineup.
Fast Break
The Nuggets are in one of the toughest spots of the day against the Pacers, who rank 24th in pace and second in defensive efficiency this season. That said, Monte Morris deserves some attention at $4,300 on FanDuel.
The Isaiah Thomas experiment appears to be over in Denver — he’s picked up a DNP-CD in each of his past two games — and Morris has been the primary beneficiary. He’s logged at least 27 minutes in each of his past three games and has scored at least 20.0 FanDuel points in all of them.
The Grizzlies are in the largest pace-up spot of the day against the Wizards, which makes Delon Wright an interesting option. He’s averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has played at least 29.5 minutes in two of his past three games.
Small Forward
Stud
Luka Doncic is currently questionable with a knee injury, but he’s in an outstanding spot if he’s able to suit up. He’s averaged an elite 1.47 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark on the slate at the SF position.
Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Luka Doncic
The Mavericks own an implied team total of 111.5 points, which represents a significant increase when compared to their regular-season average (107.7). He’s a nightly threat to lead the Mavericks in points, rebounds, and assists, which gives him a huge ceiling at just $8,700 on DraftKings.
Value
Kelly Oubre has revitalized his career with the Suns and is averaged 1.11 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He also ranks second on the team in usage with Johnson off the court this season since he joined the rotation on Feb. 8, and Oubre is coming off 36 minutes in his last contest. He’s too cheap across the industry at the moment.
Fast Break
Davis Bertans is priced $200 above the minimum on FanDuel, which makes him an interesting punt play against the Blazers. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games.
C.J. Miles exploded for 39.75 DraftKings points in his last game and remains affordable at $3,700 for Saturday night’s contest against the Wizards. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.51 on DraftKings, which is one of the better marks at the position.
Power Forward
Stud
Julius Randle was absolutely dominant in his last game, going for 45 points and 11 rebounds en route to 76.75 DraftKings points. He will likely see a reduction in value with Anthony Davis expected to play, but Randle should be able to make up for it with an excellent matchup against the Suns, who have been the worst rebounding team in basketball this season, giving Randle an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.06 on DraftKings.
Randle should still see a healthy amount of playing time regardless of Davis’ status, and he’s averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute with Holiday and Nikola Mirotic off the court this season.
Value
Maxi Kleber is priced at a discount at $4,100 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 91%. He’s played at least 29 minutes in each of his past three games and has averaged 0.85 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s a strong target against the Cavaliers squad that has the potential to be very thin in the frontcourt.
Fast Break
The Suns look like a nice source of value at virtually every position on Saturday’s slate. They’re going to be without Richaun Holmes in addition to Johnson, which opens up a few minutes in both the frontcourt and backcourt.
Josh Jackson figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries in the frontcourt. He’s coming off 27.5 minutes in his last contest, which was the most he’s played in nearly a month. He’s a particularly strong target at $3,800 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 83%.
Domantas Sabonis has been dominant over the past month, averaging 1.44 DraftKings points per minute. He remains underpriced $5,400 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.77 against the Nuggets.
Center
Stud
Rudy Gobert is in a dream spot against the Nets, who have been destroyed by opposing centers all season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.04 on DraftKings, which is the top mark at the position. He scored 58.5 DraftKings points in his first matchup against the Nets this season, and he has similar upside on Saturday.
Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Rudy Gobert
Gobert is one of the best pure values on DraftKings, where his $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Value
Joakim Noah continues to make the most of his limited playing time. He’s scored at least 28.6 FanDuel points in three of his past four games despite playing 26.8 minutes or less in each contest. He’s done that by averaging a ridiculous 1.40 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which is the fourth-highest mark at the position.
Noah is in a great spot against the Wizards, who have been awful defensively and on the glass this season, and his $5,000 salary on FanDuel results in a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Fast Break
There’s a lot to like about DeAndre Ayton on Saturday. For starters, he’s in a great spot against the Pelicans as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.44 on DraftKings. He also has the potential to see a few additional minutes with Holmes out of the lineup.
Finally, Ayton has posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past seven games on DraftKings, yet his salary has decreased by more than $1,000 over that span. He’s one of the strongest plays of the day.
DeMarcus Cousins is coming off 31.5 minutes and 50.0 DraftKings points with Durant out of the lineup in their last game, and he has similar upside on Saturday. OKC has struggled against opposing centers recently, giving Cousins an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.03. He’s also underpriced on DraftKings, where his $7,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Suns C Deandre Ayton (22)
Photo Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
