The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features an 11 game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook’s triple double streak finally came to an end yesterday, but that didn’t stop him from putting up a huge fantasy performance. He rode one of his best shooting nights of the year to 81.75 DraftKings points in a tough matchup vs. the Utah Jazz. He’s been a phenomenal fantasy contributor over the past month, posting a perfect 100% Consistency Rating while averaging 1.86 DraftKings points per minute and a Plus/Minus of +12.64.
Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0).
He’s in a wonderful spot today vs. the Sacramento Kings, who have played at the third fastest pace in the league this season. Oklahoma City has played at the second fastest pace, giving this game the top over/under of the day at 240.0 points. The Thunder’s implied team total of 122.75 is also the top mark on the slate. The only slight concern is the fact that OKC is playing on the second night of a back-to-back after playing in a double overtime game yesterday.
Value
The game between the Suns and the Hawks is another one that figures to offer plenty of fantasy value. Both teams rank in the bottom three in terms of defensive efficiency this season, and the Hawks have played at the fastest pace in the league.
Tyler Johnson is coming off his best game as a member of the Suns, scoring 33.1 FanDuel points in 33 minutes in his last outing. He has a great individual matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.49, and remains fairly priced across the industry.
Fast Break
On the other side of that matchup, it’s hard to ignore what Trae Young has been doing recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.15 over his past 10 games on DraftKings and has played at least 36 minutes in two of his past three games. He’s scored at least 44.5 DraftKings points in all three games since the team released Jeremy Lin, which makes him an excellent value at just $7,800 on DraftKings.
Mike Conley carries some risk today – he’s an older player on a bad team playing for the second straight night – but he also has big upside vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers. He posted a usage rate of 32.1% for the shorthanded Grizzlies last night, resulting in 48.6 FanDuel points. They could be similarly shorthanded today, and his $7,700 price tag on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Tonight might be the best opportunity to buy James Harden at low ownership in recent memory. He’s coming off a string of bad performances, posting a negative Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, and is also a game time decision due to an injury. That said, he has plenty of upside if he is able to suit up.
Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: James Harden
His salary has decreased by a whopping -$2,300 over the past month on DraftKings, and his current $11,500 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 92%. Harden torched the Warriors for 91 DraftKings points in their most recent contest and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.83 vs. the Warriors over the past two regular seasons (per the Trends tool). He definitely has appeal for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) if you’re willing to stomach some risk.
Value
Bogdan Bogdanovic is simply too cheap at $4,600 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.0 DraftKings points per minute this season and is currently projected for 31.3 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games, yet his salary has actually decreased by $600 over that time frame. Don’t overthink this one for cash games.
Fast Break
Devin Booker hasn’t been a particularly strong option recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in six of his past 10 games. That said, he’s in an excellent bounce back spot today vs. the Hawks. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.86 on FanDuel, where his $8,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%.
Kent Bazemore has seen a nice bump in playing time with Kevin Huerter out of the lineup and is coming off 33.5 minutes in his last game. He’s averaged 1.03 FanDuel points per minute this season, which makes him a strong target at just $4,800.
Small Forward
Stud
If the Lakers are going to get into the playoffs this season, they’re going to need to do it on the back of LeBron James. They started the second half of the season on a strong note, overcoming a 19-point deficit vs. the Rockets in their last game, and LeBron played 40 minutes and contributed 55.25 DraftKings points in that effort. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.55 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do a lot of damage if he’s going to continue to play that much moving forward.
His matchup vs. the Pelicans on today’s slate is also extremely appealing. They’ve been a disaster defensively for most of the season, and that was with Anthony Davis manning the middle. He’s not going to play today, and the Pelicans have allowed 115.5 points per 100 possessions with Davis off the court this season. LeBron is a particularly strong target on DraftKings, where his $10,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Kelly Oubre has taken his game to another level as a member of the Phoenix Suns. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.26 on FanDuel through his first 29 games with his new team and has displayed plenty of upside as well. He’s one of the best values of the day at $5,200 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Phoenix Suns forward Kelly Oubre Jr. (3).
Fast Break
Miles Bridges hasn’t had many opportunities to make in impact during his rookie season, but he did play greater than 29 minutes in his most recent contest. He responded with 31.2 FanDuel points, and that kind of production would make him an excellent value at his current salary across the industry. He’s projected for 29 minutes again today in a strong matchup vs. the Brooklyn Nets.
Eric Gordon has small forward eligibility on DraftKings in addition to shooting guard eligibility across the industry, and he would become one of the most popular plays on the slate if Harden is unable to suit up. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +6.8% with Harden off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.02 DraftKings points per minute. He’s worthy of consideration on DraftKings even if Harden is active given his Bargain Rating of 92%.
Power Forward
Stud
With Davis out of the lineup, Julius Randle should have the opportunity to serve as the Pelicans’ offensive focal point. He’s seen a usage bump of +4.4% with Davis and Nikola Mirotic off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.25 FanDuel points per minute.
Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday (11), New Orleans Pelicans forward Julius Randle (30).
He played just under 39 minutes the last time Davis was unable to play and responded with 57.2 FanDuel points vs. the Thunder. He’s in a wonderful spot today vs. the Lakers, and he leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel. This is also a #RevengeGame if you’re into that kind of thing.
Value
Taj Gibson made a spot start at center yesterday with Karl-Anthony Towns out of the lineup and did not disappoint, scoring 40.5 FanDuel points in 31.5 minutes. Towns is questionable for today’s matchup vs. the Bucks, and it would be hard to ignore Gibson at $3,900 on FanDuel if he’s ultimately unable to suit up.
Fast Break
Marvin Bagley hasn’t seen the most consistent playing time this season but has been pretty dominant when given opportunities. He’s averaged 1.08 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s increased his production to 1.19 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s also seen a nice boost in playing time recently, seeing at least 31.5 minutes in two of his past three games. He has big upside at just $6,100.
Marvin Williams has been a nice source of value recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past eight games on DraftKings. He’s scored at least 27.75 DraftKings points in three of his past four games and has an excellent matchup today vs. the Brooklyn Nets. He’s a strong target at $4,600.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond absolutely dominated the Hawks yesterday, scoring 67.75 DraftKings points. He’s been fantastic regardless of matchup recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.89 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he remains affordable at just $8,700. It results in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and his 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position.
Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Andre Drummond
Value
It looks like a good day to pay down at the center position, and Cody Zeller is one of most appealing values. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +9.54 over his past 10 games on DraftKings and is in a wonderful spot today vs. the Brooklyn Nets. They’ve been shredded by opposing centers all season, giving Zeller an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.12. He’s a particularly strong target on DraftKings, where his $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Fast Break
Jahlil Okafor is the best pure value at the position on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $4,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and should see plenty of playing time with Davis out of the lineup. He’s averaged 1.11 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has a strong matchup vs. the Lakers.
Steven Adams has been mired in a slump recently but busted out in a big way vs. the Utah Jazz. He scored 47.5 FanDuel points in that contest, albeit in 47 minutes of playing time. He’s in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Sacramento Kings and remains priced down across the industry.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Lakers F LeBron James
Photo Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
