The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET. For all trade deadline new, check out The Action Network’s posts tracking all the big trades and the impact of each move around the league.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook has been an excellent fantasy asset recently. He’s posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month on DraftKings and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.80 over his past 10 games. He also increased his production to 1.69 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the highest mark on the slate.
Westbrook is in an interesting spot today vs. the Grizzlies. On one hand, the Grizzlies are one of the worst matchups in fantasy basketball. They play at the slowest pace in the league and rank sixth in defensive efficiency, which is a brutal combination for scoring.
Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0).
On the other hand, the Grizzlies will be without defensive anchor Marc Gasol, who was traded away before today’s 3 p.m. ET trade deadline. Westbrook is a better value today on DraftKings, where his $11,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
As good as Westbrook has been recently, Damian Lillard might be the more appealing option on today’s slate. He has also posted a 100% Consistency Rating over the past month and has a much better matchup vs. the San Antonio Spurs. They’ve struggled against opposing point guards all season, giving Lillard an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.71. The Blazers implied team total of 116.0 also ranks third on the slate. Lillard is one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
The Raptors will be slightly shorthanded for today’s contest vs. the Hawks after trading away Jonas Valanciunas, C.J. Miles, and Delon Wright. That should solidify a nice chunk of playing time for Fred VanVleet, who has averaged a solid 0.84 FanDuel points per minute this season. The Hawks are also an elite matchup, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.40. He’s a nice value at $4,500 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Rajon Rondo is coming off an awful performance in his last game, causing his price to drop by nearly $1,000 for today’s matchup vs. the Celtics. That said, Rondo is still handling the majority of the point guard minutes for the Lakers with Lonzo Ball out of the lineup, and his current $6,100 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%. This is also the rare double narrative game: Rondo is playing a revenge game vs. his former team and is on national television.
The Clippers were one of the most active teams before the trade deadline, trading away Tobias Harris, Avery Bradley, and Boban Marjanovic and waiving Marcin Gortat. None of the players they acquired will be ready to make their debut, which will leave them pretty shorthanded on today’s slate.
That should benefit Patrick Beverley, who has averaged 0.84 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s priced at just $5,100 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Sticking with the Clippers, Lou Williams has the potential to be a fantasy monster with Harris out of the picture. He’s averaged an elite 1.40 DraftKings points per minute with Harris off the court this season and has played at least 31 minutes in four of his past five games. He’s particularly appealing on DraftKings, where his $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%.
Value
Tyreke Evans entered the starting lineup for the Pacers in their last game and did not disappoint, scoring 26.0 FanDuel points in just under 26 minutes. He’s averaged 0.99 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so that production doesn’t seem fluky either. He’s a nice value at $4,500 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
DeMar DeRozan is expected to return to the Spurs’ lineup tonight vs. the Blazers and is priced at just $7,900 on FanDuel. That’s simply too cheap for DeRozan: He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.78 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool).
Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Antonio Spurs guard DeMar DeRozan (10), forward Dante Cunningham (33).
Terrence Ross survived trade deadline day as a member of the Magic, and he should reap the benefits on today’s slate. The magic shipped out Jonathon Simmons, which gives Ross the potential to play a few additional minutes. He’s averaged 0.98 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he can do some damage when given the opportunity. He’s also shown a big ceiling recently, scoring at least 42.5 FanDuel points in two of his past three games.
Small Forward
Stud
There are a few big names to consider at top of the small forward position, but Kawhi Leonard appears to be in the best spot. He owns an elite matchup vs. the Hawks, who have played at the fastest pace in the league this season, and Toronto’s resulting implied team total of 120.75 ranks first on the slate.
His average of 1.40 DraftKings points per minute over the past month is also the top mark at the position. There is some blowout concern with the Raptors today — they’re currently listed as 8.5-point favorites — but the other top options have similar concerns: Paul George and the Thunder are 14-point favorites vs. the Grizzlies, while LeBron James’ Lakers are 8.5-point underdogs vs. the Celtics.
Value
Danilo Gallinari is set to return tonight and should find himself in a decent role for the Clippers. He’s seen a usage bump of +2.5% with Harris off the court this season, which is the second largest usage differential on the team. He’s averaged a solid 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his $6,000 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%. It’s possible that he could be a bit limited after missing each of the past 10 games, but the Clippers don’t exactly have a ton of alternatives at the moment.
Fast Break
LeBron likely won’t command much ownership on today’s slate, which makes him an interesting target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He’s a particularly intriguing option on FanDuel, where he owns a Bargain Rating of 88% and leads the position with 15 Pro Trends. That’s a pretty massive number, and players with a comparable number of Pro Trends have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.97.
Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0).
Jayson Tatum is coming off 44.75 DraftKings points in his most recent contest and has been an excellent fantasy producer over the past month, increasing his output to 1.02 DraftKings points per minute.
He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 93% over that time frame, yet his salary has decreased by -$100. His current $5,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%, and his matchup with the Lakers results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.56.
Power Forward
Stud
The Jaren Jackson Jr. era has officially begun. Memphis traded away Gasol and JaMychal Green, which leaves very little competition for Jackson in the Grizzlies’ frontcourt. He’s averaged 1.02 FanDuel points per minute with both players off the court this season and has the potential to see well over 30 minutes today vs. the Thunder.
Value
No one really stands out as a massive value at the power forward position today. That said, Domantas Sabonis has seen a salary decrease of -$1,500 over the past month on DraftKings and owns a tremendous matchup vs. the Clippers. They’ve been crushed by opposing big men all season, giving Sabonis an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.37. This is an excellent opportunity to buy low on him.
Pictured: Indiana Pacers forward Domantas Sabonis (11), Photo Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
Fast Break
The Raptors made one of the biggest splashes at the trade deadline by landing Gasol from the Grizzlies, but he obviously won’t be available for them today vs. the Hawks. They also traded away Greg Monroe, which leaves them pretty thin in the frontcourt.
That leaves a lot of playing time for Serge Ibaka and Pascal Siakam, and both players couldn’t ask for a better matchup than the Hawks. Ibaka has been slightly better on a per-minute basis over the past month, but Siakam is currently projected for more minutes in our NBA Models. Both players are excellent options, and stacking them together is also a viable strategy.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns headlines the center position on today’s slate and has been a strong fantasy option recently. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.64 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past eight games on DraftKings.
That said, his salary has actually decreased by -$600 over the past month, and his current $9,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings and looks like one of the top options on the slate.
Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Karl-Anthony Towns
Value
The center position for the Grizzlies is going to provide some value on today’s slate. Ivan Rabb has been priced up recently, but he remains affordable at $5,100 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute this season and has the potential to play a ton of minutes on today’s slate.
Joakim Noah would also be an interesting option if he’s able to suit up. He’s questionable with a heel injury, but Noah has averaged 1.1 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s way cheaper than Rabb across the industry and will likely command lower ownership as well.
Fast Break
Myles Turner has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games, and his stock is clearly on the rise with Oladipo out of the lineup. He’s in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Indiana Pacers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.15, and his $6,500 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
JaVale McGee was a winner at the trade deadline, with the Lakers choosing to ship Ivica Zubac to the Clippers in exchange for Mike Muscala. McGee should assume a larger role at center today vs. the Celtics and can do some serious damage when given the opportunity to play extended minutes.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Raptors PF Serge Ibaka
Photo Credit: Kim Klement-USA Today Sports
