The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The Raptors are essentially back at full strength, which will likely make Kyle Lowry an afterthought for most people. That said, he’s been priced down to just $7,100 on DraftKings for today’s matchup vs. the Bucks, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%. That’s simply too cheap for Lowry, as he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.65 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool).
Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Toronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry (7).
The Bucks are a strong defensive team, currently sporting the top mark in the league in terms of defensive efficiency, but they also play at one of the faster paces in the league. The Raptors are in the largest pace-up spot of the day, and their implied team total of 117.25 ranks second on the slate.
Value
Reggie Jackson has quietly been an excellent value for the Pistons recently, scoring at least 29.25 DraftKings points in each of his past three games. He’s played at least 35 minutes in each of his past two, and Jackson has averaged a strong 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s currently priced at just $4,700 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Fast Break
Rajon Rondo is one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel, where his $6,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%. The Lakers have the potential to be very shorthanded in this contest, with LeBron James listed as doubtful and Kyle Kuzma and Josh Hart both listed as questionable. Lonzo Ball also remains out, and Rondo has averaged 38.67 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with Ball and James off the court this season.
The Warriors implied team total of 125.0 is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin, which makes Steph Curry an appealing option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He’s seen a pretty drastic reduction in value since DeMarcus Cousins joined the rotation but is still capable of going off in any situation.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The shooting guard position is pretty thin at the top today, especially with Luka Doncic doubtful to suit up for the Mavericks. One player who is worth some consideration is DeMar DeRozan, who is expected to make his return for the Spurs. He’s missed each of the past three games with an injury, but he’s listed as probable for today’s contest vs. the Nets. It’s a decent matchup, as the Spurs’ implied team total of 117.0 ranks third on the slate.
Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Antonio Spurs shooting guard DeMar DeRozan (10).
DeRozan has also been priced down to just $8,000 on FanDuel, which represents a decrease of -$800 over the past month. DeRozan has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.67 with a comparable salary this season. The only concern is a possible minute limit in his first game back from injury, but the reduced salary gives him nice upside for GPPs.
Value
The Clippers will be without Danilo Gallinari for the seventh straight game today, and Avery Bradley has been one of the biggest beneficiaries from his absence. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in each of his past six contests and has averaged 24.4 DraftKings points per game over that time frame. That may not sound like much, but it represents an excellent return on investment at his current $3,700 price tag.
That said, Bradley has popped up on the injury report with a sore right knee is officially listed as questionable. His absence would open up some additional playing time for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Patrick Beverley, and Lou Williams would also likely see a bump off the bench. This will be an important situation to monitor prior to lineup lock.
Fast Break
Khris Middleton could be an interesting buy-low candidate today vs. the Raptors. He’s priced at just $6,600 on FanDuel, which is nearly $1,000 cheaper than he was in each of his three previous matchups vs. Toronto. He’s averaged 30.7 FanDuel points per game in those contests, which would make him a decent value at his current price tag. His 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel also rank second at the position.
Klay Thompson is underpriced at just $5,800 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s a boom-or-bust option, but his floor is a bit higher given his reduced salary.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been a nice source of value over the past month on DraftKings, posting a Consistency Rating of 90% while averaging 56.0 fantasy points per game. He’s done it on the back of a whopping 1.79 DraftKings points per minute, which has been able to overcome a pretty pedestrian workload in terms of minutes per game.
That said, the Bucks have been willing to give Giannis a larger workload in certain matchups, and this showdown with the Raptors definitely appears to qualify. He logged 39.5 minutes in his most recent contest vs. Toronto and responded with 73.5 DraftKings points.
Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34).
His salary has also decreased by -$1,000 over the past month despite his excellent production, and his current $10,600 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s an excellent target in all formats on a slate that doesn’t feature a ton of superstars.
Value
Wilson Chandler very rarely puts up an eye-popping performance, but he has been a reliable option recently for fantasy owners. He’s posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month on FanDuel and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games. He’s a solid value at $4,000 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 75%.
Fast Break
Tobias Harris has been a monster with Gallinari out of the lineup recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.30 over his past six games on FanDuel. He’s in an excellent spot today vs. the Lakers, and his $8,100 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Rudy Gay will likely see a slight reduction in value with DeRozan back in the lineup, but he still looks like a solid value across the industry. He’s averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per game this season and is projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models.
Power Forward
Stud
Montrezl Harrell hasn’t exactly dominated recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -3.28 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, but his fantasy arrow is definitely pointing up. He’s been playing big minutes recently, logging at least 29.5 in four of his past five games, and Harrell has averaged 1.22 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Clippers forward Montrezl Harrell (5), Los Angeles Lakers center Ivica Zubac (40).
He’s in an elite spot today vs. the Lakers, who have been crushed by opposing big men for the majority of the season. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.07 ranks second at the power forward position on FanDuel.
Value
The Mavericks threw a huge wrench in today’s slate by executing a trade for Kristaps Porzingis. Doncic is still listed as doubtful, and Dennis Smith Jr., Wesley Matthews, and DeAndre Jordan will all be shipped off to New York. That’s likely going to leave them without four of their usual starters on today’s slate.
Harrison Barnes will likely see the majority of usage for the Mavs, but they will also offer substantial value at the power forward position. Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell will both likely play heavy minutes, and both players are candidates to enter the starting lineup as well. Powell is slightly cheaper and has also been better on a per-minute basis recently, averaging 1.07 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has increased his fantasy production to 1.08 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has also seen a nice boost in playing time recently. He’s played at least 21 minutes in each of his past three games, which makes him a nice target across the industry.
Center
Stud
The Mavericks being without Jordan today makes Andre Drummond a really appealing target. They’ve allowed 111.5 points per 100 possessions with Jordan off the court this season, and opponents have shot 71.8% from inside of three feet. That’s where Drummond does the majority of his damage. He’s a particularly strong value on DraftKings, where his $8,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Value
The Lakers center tandem has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Clippers, with both JaVale McGee and Ivica Zubac owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.33 on DraftKings. Zubac has been starting recently but struggled with Joel Embiid in their last game, which lead to an uptick in playing time for McGee. It’s unclear right now who will garner the majority of minutes, which makes both player better suited for GPPs.
Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Lakers center JaVale McGee (7).
Fast Break
Speaking of Embiid, he leads the center position with 13 Pro trends on DraftKings, where his $10,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s been an elite option over the past month, averaging 1.79 DraftKings points per minute, and owns a strong Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.48 vs. the Warriors. He has arguably the highest ceiling on a slate that is suddenly loaded with value.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Mavericks F Harrison Barnes
Photo Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
