The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a four-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook owns the highest projection of the night in our NBA Player Models, but he finds himself further down the list when it comes to Projected Plus/Minus. Westbrook has posted “just” 18.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 10.0 assists per game in two prior meetings with Memphis this season.
Value
As long as Mike Conley doesn’t get the night off for general tanking soreness, he should be one of the highest-owned point guards on the slate as he goes up against the Thunder, and rightfully so. Conley, the highest-rated point guard in the Phan Model, is averaging 26.4 points per game on 50.4% shooting in March and has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his past 10 games.
Fast Break
Ricky Rubio has surpassed salary-based expectations in five of his past six games and has a top-three Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
I’ll get to his teammate in a few moments, but Delon Wright is already a top-five value at the position and would be in for even more of a bump if Conley were to sit. Wright is averaging a +6.74 Plus/Minus and 70% Consistency Rating over his past 10 games.
Shooting Guard
Stud
D’Angelo Russell, Devin Booker and Donovan Mitchell all find themselves with negative Projected Plus/Minuses, but Russell has the slight edge among the three. After a rough stretch, the Swaggy P-Iggy Azalea relationship arch nemesis has exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight.
Value
After torching the Magic (and my Magic -9.5 bet) on Friday for 29 points on 11-of-19 shooting, Tyler Dorsey entered the starting lineup on Saturday and bombed with eight points on 3-of-13 shooting. Whether the 41st overall pick of the 2017 NBA Draft remains in the starting unit over Wright, Dorsey is likely to play minutes in the high 20s in the absence of Avery Bradley (shin, out) and sports the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position by over 2 points.
Fast Break
With C.J. McCollum (knee, doubtful) likely to miss again, Seth Curry profiles as a top-three value at shooting guard. Curry is averaging a +4.58 Plus/Minus and 70% Consistency Rating over his past 10 games.
Small Forward
Stud
Our models have Paul George projected with the second-highest floor on the slate, and he’s the most expensive player who makes it into the optimal lineup in our NBA Lineup Builder. The worthy MVP candidate has posted a 86% Consistency Rating over his past seven games and pops with a slate-high 13 Pro Trends.
Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Oklahoma City Thunder forward Paul George (13)
Value
Maurice Harkless has stated he’s in a better place mind- and body-wise now than he was earlier in the season, and the numbers back that up. Since the All-Star break, he’s averaging 10.8 points, 5.4 rebounds and 2.2 assists in 26.8 minutes — up from 6.0/3.8/0.8 in 21.4 minutes pre-break. The seventh-year forward out of St. Johns has a Consistency Rating of 80% over his past 10 games.
Fast Break
While Jimmy Butler and Ben Simmons both have negative Projected Plus/Minuses for the 76ers, Terrence Ross‘ is positive on the other side of that matchup for the Magic. Orlando’s sixth man has be running hot all March, putting up a +2.73 Plus/Minus and 70% Consistency Rating.
Power Forward
Stud
If we’re treating George as a small forward, the only other studs at power forward are Tobias Harris and Aaron Gordon in the 76ers-Magic game. Harris is the better real-life player, but Gordon has the edge in Projected Plus/Minus for Monday’s face-off.
Value
You hate to play guys against Utah’s top-two defense, but at $3,500 on DraftKings, Phoenix’s Dragan Bender represents the top power forward-eligible player on the slate outside of Harkless. Bender is averaging 32.0 minutes per game over his past four.
Fast Break
The Al-Farouq Aminu vs. Rodons Kurucs power forward matchup in Nets-Blazers should be able to provide a cost-effective source of value. Both players’ Projected Plus/Minuses rank behind only Harkless and Bender among players eligible at the position.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid is more expensive, but Nikola Vucevic has the edge in Projected Plus/Minus in a matchup of the two bigs in the 76ers-Magic tilt. Vucci Mane is averaging 23.0 points, 11.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game in three games versus Philly this season.
Value
The Nets can be a tough matchup for centers at times, but Jusef Nurkic lays claim to the top Projected Plus/Minus on the slate at the position after erupting for 27 points, 12 rebounds and 3 blocks against Brooklyn on Feb. 21.
Fast Break
Jonas Valanciunas sees a 2.3% increase in Usage Rate with Bradley off the floor, per our NBA On/Off tool, and owns the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position behind Nurkic.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
