The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook has had inconsistent results recently. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three of his past five games, despite the fact that two of those games came with Paul George out of the lineup.
Those recent results are creating some value with Westbrook on Monday’s slate. He’s been priced down to $10,800 on DraftKings, and Westbrook has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.56 with a comparable salary over the past two seasons (per our Trends tool).
He’s in a difficult spot against the Jazz, who rank third in defensive efficiency, but Westbrook scored 81.75 DraftKings points in their last meeting. He leads all PGs with 13 Pro Trends and is one of the safest possible options for cash games.
Value
Collin Sexton has been an excellent value over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.88 on DraftKings. That said, his salary has actually decreased over that span, and his current $4,700 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. He should see a few additional minutes with Matthew Dellavedova out of the lineup and has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Sticking with the Cavaliers, Brandon Knight could be an interesting target at the absolute minimum on FanDuel. He saw a few additional minutes without Dellavedova in their last game and responded with 29.4 FanDuel points. He’s one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 88%.
Kemba Walker is priced at $8,100 on DraftKings for his matchup against the Rockets, making him a nice buy low target. His salary has decreased by $1,100 over the past month, and Kemba has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.17 with a comparable salary this season.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is coming off one of his worst games of the season on Monday against the Mavericks. He posted a usage rate of 40.4% but shot only 7-of-25 from the field and was limited to 34 minutes due to foul trouble. His fantasy production has dropped all the way to 1.48 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is a far cry from what he was averaging with Chris Paul out of the lineup.
Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: James Harden
Harden has some appeal against the Hornets — the Rockets’ implied team total of 116.25 ranks third on the slate — but he doesn’t appear to offer the same upside with the Rockets back at full strength.
Value
Monday night’s game between the Wizards and Kings should be the top target from a fantasy perspective. Both teams have played at a top-10 pace this season, and the resulting over/under of 240.5 points is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin. The Wizards are also 2-point favorites at home (see live odds here), giving both teams an implied team total of at least 119.25 points.
Bogdan Bogdanovic is one way to get some relatively cheap exposure to that game. He’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season and is currently projected for 33.8 minutes in our NBA Models, and that combination makes him a strong value across the industry.
Fast Break
Tomas Satoransky has SG eligibility on DraftKings, and he’s another way to get exposure to the game between the Kings and the Wizards. He’s played at least 36.5 minutes in each of his past three games and has cracked the 40-minute plateau in two of them. He’s increased his fantasy production to 0.88 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do some damage when given the opportunity to play big minutes.
The Jazz will be without Ricky Rubio and Raul Neto against the Thunder, which increases the appeal of Donovan Mitchell. He’s averaged 45.64 DraftKings points in seven games with both players out of the lineup this season, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +3.6.
Small Forward
Stud
Paul George has been a fantastic fantasy option for most of the season, and he’s continued his excellent play recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.78 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, despite the fact that he’s seen a reduction in fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s made up for it by taking on a massive workload, and his projection of 38.4 minutes ranks second on the slate.
Credit: Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Paul George
He has a tough matchup against the Jazz, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.83, but he’s underpriced on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 95%. His 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings are also tied for the most at the position.
Value
Royce O’Neal is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, which makes him an appealing punt play at the position. He’s averaged 34.7 minutes in games without Rubio and Neto this season, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +5.9 on FanDuel.
O’Neal might not see as many minutes with Dante Exum back in the rotation, but he should still see enough to pay off his current salary in a pace-up spot against the Thunder.
Fast Break
Gordon Hayward is underpriced at $4,700 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 82%. He’s played at least 29 minutes in each of his past two games, and he could see a few additional minutes if Jayson Tatum is unable to suit up (currently questionable).
Hayward has increased his fantasy production to 0.93 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has scored at least 20.4 FanDuel points in each of his past four games.
Harrison Barnes has been a tremendous source of value for the Kings recently. He’s playing huge minutes, logging at least 36.5 in each of his past six games, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.60 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. His $5,200 salary on DraftKings also results in a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Power Forward
Stud
Blake Griffin has not been a particularly strong target recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in seven of his past 10 games on FanDuel. That said, his salary has decreased by $900 over the past month, and his current $8,300 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%. He leads all PFs on FanDuel with 13 Pro Trends in an excellent matchup against the Nets.
Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Blake Griffin
Griffin has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first two games against the Nets this season, averaging 44.2 FanDuel points per game.
Value
There is no shortage of punt plays available on this slate. Marquese Chriss fits that description at the PF position given his salary of $3,500 on FanDuel and $3,400 on DraftKings.
The Cavs will be without Larry Nance Jr. and Tristan Thompson, which should result in a healthy amount of playing time for Chriss. Chriss has averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he has upside at his current salary.
Fast Break
Kevin Love has played at least 30.5 minutes in each of his past two games and has averaged 1.50 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That makes him a viable option at $7,700 on DraftKings, where he leads all PFs with 12 Pro Trends.
Jae Crowder has seen a nice spike in playing time recently and has responded with some big performances. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games on DraftKings, and he’s gone for at least 32.5 DraftKings points in four of them. He’s a nice option at $4,800 on DraftKings.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond has been a man among boys recently. He’s averaged a ridiculous Plus/Minus of +12.31 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and the only thing that has been able to stop him has been reduced playing time in blowout. That hopefully won’t be an issue on Monday, as the Pistons are just two-point underdogs in Brooklyn.
Drummond should be able to have his way with a Nets’ interior that has struggled with opposing big men all season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.16 on DraftKings, which is the top mark at the position. He’s also one of the best values at the position on DraftKings at $9,100 given his Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s a strong choice for the top overall play of the day.
Value
Willie Cauley-Stein is another big man in an elite spot on Monday night. He’s taking on the Wizards, who are currently rank tied for 27th in defensive efficiency and 29th in team rebound rate. The result is an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.40. Cauley-Stein has also averaged 1.06 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his $5,900 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 77%.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert scored 57.0 DraftKings points in his last meeting against the Thunder and owns an elite Bargain Rating of 98% for Monday’s matchup. He’s coming off a down performance against the Grizzlies in his last outing, which makes this a nice opportunity to buy low on him.
Ante Zizic returned to the Cavs lineup in their last game and scored 16.7 FanDuel points in just under 15 minutes. He could see a few additional minutes on Monday as he gets further removed from his injury, and his $3,600 salary on FanDuel results in a position-high Bargain Rating of 91%.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: PIstons C Andre Drummond
Photo Credit: Raj Mehta-USA Today Sports
