The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook has been the most reliable option in fantasy recently, posting a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month. He’s also averaged a slate-high 1.80 DraftKings points per minute over that time frame and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +9.57 over his past 10 games.
Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0).
He’s in a strong spot today vs. the Philadelphia 76ers, who have played at the seventh fastest pace this season. The Sixers will also be without star center Joel Embiid, and their defense has allowed 113.2 points per 100 possessions with Embiid off the court this season. The Thunder’s implied team total of 121.5 points is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin, and Westbrook leads all point guards with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
He should also benefit from the absence of Paul George, who has been ruled out with a shoulder injury. Westbrook has seen a usage bump of +3.9% with George off the court this season and scored 63.5 DraftKings points in the only game that George has missed. Westbrook offers the safest floor and highest ceiling on today’s slate and is a tough fade in all formats.
Value
Emmanuel Mudiay has shared the point guard responsibilities with Dennis Smith Jr. recently, but that hasn’t stopped him from scoring at least 31.0 DraftKings points in two of his past three games. He’s averaged a stout 1.08 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 26.5 minutes in our NBA Models. That should be enough playing time for him to return value at his $4,900 salary.
Fast Break
Goran Dragic is an interesting option on FanDuel, where his $4,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%. He’s still playing limited minutes since returning from a knee injury that caused him to miss 31 games, but he managed to score 30.1 FanDuel points in just 20 minutes yesterday vs. the Golden State Warriors. He has big upside if he sees a bump in playing time today vs. the Rockets.
Jeff Teague is currently questionable for today’s contest vs. the Pacers, and it would be hard to ignore Tyus Jones if he’s ultimately ruled out. Jones has scored at least 29.5 DraftKings points in each of his past three games and has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s simply too cheap at $4,500 on DraftKings if he draws another start.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The days of James Harden as a DFS goldmine feel like a distant memory. He’s coming off 50.25 DraftKings points in yesterday’s game vs. the Hornets and has now posted a negative Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games. He continues to dominate the ball on offense, posting a usage rate of at least 40.9% in three of his past four games, but his peripheral production has fallen off a cliff. He’s averaged 7.6 assists and 6.6 rebounds per game this season but has been below those marks in six of his past seven games.
Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13).
That said, it’s hard to completely write him off at his current salary. He’s seen a price decrease of -$2,600 over the past month on DraftKings, and his $11,000 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. He still offers big upside — he scored 50.25 DraftKings points yesterday despite shooting just 10-29 from the field and 1-11 from 3-point range — and he should be owned at a drastically lower rate than Westbrook.
Value
Dennis Schroder is one of the top options on today’s slate. For starters, he’s been a really nice value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.09 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He should also be one of the prime beneficiaries of George being ruled out. He played 39 minutes in his first game without George this season, resulting in 36.0 DraftKings points.
Fast Break
Evan Fournier is one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel, where his $5,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%. He’s been a nice value recently, scoring at least 30.6 FanDuel points in five of his past six games, and he’s coming off 38.0 FanDuel points in his most recent contest.
Jimmy Butler hasn’t displayed much of a ceiling recently, but he’s underpriced at $7,100 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and Butler has averaged 35.75 DraftKings points in seven games without Embiid this season.
Small Forward
Stud
Tobias Harris is another member of the 76ers who should benefit from Embiid being out of the lineup. He’s played just three games without Embiid since being acquired from the Clippers but has averaged 41.58 DraftKings points in those contests. He also has one of the best individual matchups at the position given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.76 on DraftKings. He’s a slightly better value today on FanDuel, where his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 77%.
Value
Sticking with the 76ers, JJ Redick is a strong target at just $5,000 on DraftKings. His salary has decreased by -$700 over the past month, and he’s scored at least 28.5 DraftKings points in two of his past three games. He’s also shot just 26.3% from the field over that time frame, so he has upside for more if he sees some regression on today’s slate.
Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Philadelphia 76ers guard JJ Redick (17).
Fast Break
Joe Ingles has been a tremendous source of value recently, scoring at least 32.75 DraftKings points in each of his past three games. Ingles should also benefit from Utah’s current injury situation. They’re going to be without Ricky Rubio, Dante Exum, and Raul Neto for today’s matchup vs. the Nuggets, and Ingles has averaged 30.75 DraftKings points per 36 minutes in games with all three players out of the lineup this season.
Will Barton is worth some consideration on FanDuel, where his $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 77%. Predicting the minutes for the Nuggets is tough – they have one of the deepest rosters in the league – but Barton is coming off 33.1 fantasy points and 33 minutes in his most recent contest.
Power Forward
Stud
Kevin Love has seen his playing time slowly increase since returning from injury, culminating in 28.0 minutes in his last game. He’s averaged a stout 1.58 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do some serious damage if he approaches 30 minutes again today. He’s also in an elite spot vs. the Knicks, who rank just 26th in defensive efficiency and 24th in team rebound rate.
Value
The Heat are going to be without both Hassan Whiteside and James Johnson today, which makes Bam Adebayo one of the top value options on the slate. He scored 34.5 DraftKings points with both players out of the lineup yesterday, and he’s averaged 31.71 DraftKings points in seven games with Whiteside out of the lineup this season. Adebayo also has an excellent matchup vs. the Heat, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 1.98 on DraftKings.
Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo (13).
Fast Break
Derrick Favors has been an excellent value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.27 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and could see a few additional minutes today with Rubio out of the lineup. He’s one of the best pure values of the day on DraftKings, where his $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Mike Scott could be an interesting value option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). The 76ers will be without Embiid and Boban Marjanovic, and G-League call-up Justin Patton is not expected to factor into the rotation. That leaves a bunch of minutes for Scott, who has averaged a respectable 0.73 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic leads the position with 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.18 over his past 10 games. That said, his price has actually decreased by -$800 over that time frame, which makes him an appealing target today vs. the Jazz. Utah hasn’t been the same dominating force vs. centers this season, giving Jokic an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.92. The Jazz will also be playing on the second leg of a back-to-back in Denver, which has historically been a really tough situation.
Value
Steven Adams has been a weak fantasy option recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -2.93 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. That said, he’s seen a sizable price decrease over the past month, which makes this an excellent opportunity to buy low on him. He should be more involved offensively with George out of the lineup and has an elite matchup against the shorthanded 76ers’ frontcourt.
Fast Break
It’s impossible to ignore what Mitchell Robinson has been doing lately. He’s been dominating with DeAndre Jordan out of the lineup, scoring at least 45.0 DraftKings points in back to back games.
Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Knicks center Mitchell Robinson (26), Toronto Raptors forward Serge Ibaka (9).
He’s displayed an elite ability to block shots at the NBA level, which gives him a safe floor and high ceiling at his current price tag. Robinson is a particularly nice option on DraftKings, where his $6,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Cavaliers PF Kevin Love
Photo Credit: Harrison Barden-USA TODAY Sports
