NBA Fantasy Breakdown (Sat. 2/2): James Harden is Back in Business

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Saturday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

Ben Simmons has been a nice value for the 76ers recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.98 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s in a wonderful spot today vs. the Sacramento Kings, who have played at the second-fastest pace this season. The 76ers’ resulting implied team total of 118.75 ranks fourth on the slate and represents a solid increase from their season average (115.6). Simmons’ 12 Pro Trends are also tied for the most at the position on FanDuel.

Value

The Dallas Mavericks will get Luka Doncic back for today’s contest vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers, but they’re still going to be shorthanded. None of the newly acquired players from the Knicks will be available to make their debut, which leaves Jalen Brunson and Devin Harris to handle the majority of the minutes at point guard. Both players are way too cheap on FanDuel, where each has a Bargain Rating of at least 91%. They both have an excellent opportunity to do some damage vs. the Cavs, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency.

Fast Break

Bryn Forbes has one of the best individual matchups at the position, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.21 on DraftKings. He doesn’t possess a ton of upside given his average of 0.69 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, but he has a pretty safe floor for cash games.

This could be a nice time to buy low on Kemba Walker. He’s coming off a brutal game yesterday vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, but his current matchup vs. the Bulls should be much friendlier. His salary has decrease by -$800 over the past two weeks on FanDuel, and his current $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%.

Shooting Guard

Stud

James Harden has eased up on his usage over the past four games, posting an average usage rate of “just” 39.8%. That’s obviously still an insane number, but it’s a significant decrease from the 46.1% he averaged over his previous 16 contests. That decrease has unsurprisingly coincided with Chris Paul’s return to the lineup, and Harden has seen a decrease in fantasy production when sharing the court with Paul this season.

That said, Paul will get the night off today vs. the Utah Jazz, which means Harden could be looking at another monster workload. It’s a difficult matchup — the Jazz rank fifth in defensive efficiency — but Harden is simply too cheap at $12,500 on DraftKings if he’s going to return to playing how he did during the month of January.

He averaged 73.82 fantasy points per game over that time frame and posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating (per the Trends tool). He owns the safest floor and highest ceiling on the slate.

Value

The Phoenix Suns look like a strong team to target on today’s slate. They’re taking on the Atlanta Hawks, who have played at the fastest pace in the league this season. The result is an implied team total of 119.0 points, which represents an increase of nearly 13 points(!!!) when compared to their regular season average (106.1).

Mikal Bridges is a nice way to get some cheap exposure to the Suns. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.95 over his past 10 games on DraftKings and has played at least 35 minutes in each of his past three games. He’s underpriced at $4,100 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%.

Fast Break

The Pelicans remain one of the most injury-decimated squads in the league. Anthony Davis, Nikola Mirotic, Julius Randle, Elfrid Payton, and E’Twuan Moore all remain out for today’s contest vs. the Spurs, which will once again put a huge onus on Jrue Holiday. He’s been one of the most consistent options in NBA DFS this season, and he’s averaged 1.33 FanDuel points per minute with Davis, Mirotic, and Randle off the court. He leads the position with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel.

Gary Harris and Jamal Murray have already been ruled out for the Nuggets, which should lead to an increased workload for Malik Beasley. He’s currently projected for 35.5 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 0.8 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s scored at least 29.75 DraftKings points in each of his past three games, including 45.5 in his most recent contest.

Small Forward

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo struggled with foul trouble in his last game, which ultimately limited him to just over 28 minutes of playing time. That said, he was still productive in those minutes, racking up 49.75 DraftKings, and he’s averaged a stout 1.80 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

He has a great matchup today vs. the Washington Wizards, who rank eighth in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency this season. They’ve also struggled mightily on the glass, so Giannis has multiple avenues to rack up fantasy points in this contest. He’s projected for just 5-8% ownership on DraftKings, which makes him an appealing pivot off of Harden in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).

Value

Harrison Barnes tried to put the team on his back in the Mavs’ most recent contest, but they came up just short against the Detroit Pistons. He played over 39 minutes and posted a usage rate of 35.5%, both of which were his highest marks of the entire season.

He likely won’t be needed as much today with Doncic back in the lineup, but he still figures to see an increase in value following the blockbuster trade for Kristaps Porzingis. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +5.5% with Dennis Smith Jr. and Wesley Matthews off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.03 DraftKings points per minute.

Fast Break

Kevin Durant has taken a pretty big hit to his fantasy stock recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in five of his first six games with DeMarcus Cousins in the lineup.

That said, the Warriors are in a potential smash spot vs. the Lakers — their implied team total of 123.75 is the top mark on the slate by a wide margin — and Durant has seen a salary decrease of -$700 over the past month on FanDuel. He should garner virtually no ownership, which makes him an interesting contrarian target.

Darius Miller has seen a pretty big salary bump recently but still seems underpriced at $4,400 on DraftKings. He’s playing huge minutes for the shorthanded Pelicans and has scored at least 28.75 DraftKings points in three of his past four games.

Power Forward

Stud

No stud option really jumps off the page at the PF position, but Aaron Gordon deserves some attention at $6,500 on DraftKings. He’s coming off a dreadful performance in his last outing but has still managed an average Plus/Minus of +4.41 over his past 10 games. He’s also seen a salary decrease of -$600 over the past month, and his current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 86% on DraftKings.

Value

Marvin Bagley hasn’t been given consistent playing time during his rookie season, but he’s managed a strong 1.06 DraftKings points per minute when on the court. He has seen a nice bump in playing time recently, logging at least 28 minutes in three of his past four games.

He responded with at least 29.75 DraftKings points in each of those contests, and he’s currently projected for 27.5 minutes in our NBA Models. As long as he’s on the court, it’s hard to envision a scenario where he fails to pay off his $5,300 salary on DraftKings.

Fast Break

Paul Millsap has seen a slight bump in minutes for the Nuggets recently, playing at least 28 in each of his past three games. He’s averaged 1.08 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he can do some damage when given the opportunity. He’s underpriced on FanDuel at $5,400.

The PF and C positions are a bit of a mess for the Mavericks right now. Maxi Kleber drew the start in their last game and ultimately led their big men with 28.5 minutes of playing time, but Dwight Powell and Dirk Nowitzki also saw bumps in playing time off the bench.

Of the trio, Powell appears to be the most appealing fantasy option. He’s averaged 1.04 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and is priced at near the minimum at $3,700 on FanDuel.

Center

Stud

Nikola Vucevic made the Eastern Conference All-Star team for the first time in his career, and his play has definitely warranted that selection. He’s averaged career bests in virtually every statistic category, leading to an average Plus/Minus of +3.44 through his first 51 games on FanDuel.

He’s in a smash spot today vs. the Nets, who have been crushed by opposing centers for the majority of the season. Vucevic owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.27 on FanDuel, which is the top mark at the position, and he scored 59.3 FanDuel points the last time he faced them. Paying up at center likely won’t be a very popular strategy on a slate that includes Harden and Giannis, but Vucevic has tremendous upside at his current salary.

Value

If you want to go cheap at the position, Salah Mejri could be an interesting option. He started at center in the Mavericks last game and has averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He doesn’t need to play much to pay off his $3,300 salary on DraftKings and $3,500 salary on FanDuel, especially given his matchup vs. the Cavs.

Fast Break

DeMarcus Cousins is still playing limited minutes for the Warriors, but that hasn’t stopped him from doing a lot of damage. He’s averaged 1.41 DraftKings points per minute since joining the rotation, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +3.17 through his first six games. He has a great matchup vs. the Lakers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.72.

Joel Embiid is another center with an elite matchup, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.63 vs. the Kings. He’s averaged 1.75 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his $10,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.

News Updates

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.

Pictured: Rockets G James Harden
Photo Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports