The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard has been fantastic recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.15 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s taking full advantage of C.J. McCollum being out of the lineup, averaging 49.38 DraftKings points in six games without his star running mate. Jusuf Nurkic will also miss tonight’s contest after suffering a gruesome leg injury in his last game, and Lillard has posted a usage rate of 40.3% with both players off the court this season.
Lillard is also in a phenomenal spot today vs. the Atlanta Hawks. They’ve played at the fastest pace in the league this season, and the Blazers’ implied team total of 118.5 ranks third on the slate. Lillard owns an elite individual matchup as well, as his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.86 is the top mark at the position.
Value
Ricky Rubio is another point guard with an elite matchup on today’s slate. He’s taking on the Washington Wizards, who rank just 27th in defensive efficiency this season.
Credit: Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Utah Jazz guard Ricky Rubio (3).
The result is an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.20. Rubio has seen a slight reduction in playing time recently and is projected for just 27 minutes in our NBA Models, but he’s averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That should be enough playing time to potentially return value at $5,500 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Kemba Walker has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games and is one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $8,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he also owns a strong matchup vs. the Lakers. The Hornets are currently implied for 115.5 points, and their total has increased by a slate-best 2.0 points since opening.
Tomas Satoransky could be in a position to carry a huge workload tonight for the Wizards. Bradley Beal has played almost 200 more minutes than every other player in the league this season, but he may get the night off vs. the Jazz for rest purposes. Sato has averaged 0.86 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and could play upwards of 40 minutes if Beal is ultimately ruled out.
Russell Westbrook has a tough matchup vs. the Denver Nuggets, but he’ll be hard to pass up if Paul George is forced to miss tonight’s contest. He’s currently questionable, and Westbrook has seen a usage bump of +4.0% with George off the court this season. It should be noted that Westbrook has struggled in four full games without George, posting an average Plus/Minus of -6.5 on DraftKings, but that sample size is too small to cause much concern
Shooting Guard
Stud
Donovan Mitchell has been a disaster over his past three games, averaging just 25.2 DraftKings points per game. That said, his salary has decreased by -$500 over that time frame, which makes him an interesting buy-low candidate today vs. the Wizards. It’s an excellent matchup – Mitchell owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.64 on DraftKings – and he should command lower ownership than usual as well.
Value
Taurean Prince is doubtful for today’s matchup vs. the Blazers, which makes Kent Bazemore close to a must-play at $3,700 on FanDuel. He’s currently projected for 28.5 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged a stout 0.98 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Atlanta Hawks guard Kent Bazemore (24).
He’s expected to be extremely chalky — he’s projected for greater than 41% ownership on FanDuel — but it’s hard to envision a scenario where he busts if Prince is unable to suit up.
Fast Break
Jamal Murray has shooting guard eligibility on DraftKings in addition to point guard eligibility across the industry, which increases his appeal today vs. the Thunder. The shooting guard position is not nearly as strong as the point guard position, and Murray’s $5,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. The Nuggets are also in a major pace up spot vs. the Thunder, who have played at the fourth fastest pace in the league this season.
Andrew Wiggins has been a reliable option recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games on DraftKings. He should continue to benefit from the absences of Jeff Teague and Derrick Rose, as Wiggins has averaged 33.1 DraftKings points in his last 15 games with both players out of the lineup.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant has been awful by his standards recently, but he is coming off a nice game vs. the Grizzlies in his last outing. Perhaps that means his slump is finally over? Regardless, he’s simply too cheap at the moment at just $8,700 on DraftKings.
Durant has only owned a comparable salary in 39 games over the past five seasons, and he’s posted a Plus/Minus of +0.96 in those contests (per the Trends tool). He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, and the Warriors’ implied team total of 119.0 ranks second on the slate.
Value
DeAndre Bembry is another member of the Hawks who should benefit from the absence of Prince on today’s slate. He’s also been a really strong producer over the past month, averaging 0.98 FanDuel points per minute. One of Bembry’s strongest correlations is with Bazemore, so both players can be stacked together as well.
Fast Break
Will Barton is a relatively cheap way to get exposure to the Nuggets on today’s slate. His salary has decreased by -$1,000 over the past month on DraftKings, and his current $4,700 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%. He’s averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and is projected for 32.0 minutes in our NBA Models.
Troy Brown is one of the best values at the position on FanDuel. He’s priced at the absolute minimum, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he’s posted a Consistency Rating of 100% over the past month. He would likely be one of the biggest beneficiaries if Beal is given the night off.
Power Forward
Stud
John Collins fouled out in under 20 minutes in his last game but has been a fantasy monster over the past month. He’s averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute over that time frame, resulting in an average of 37.0 DraftKings points per game. That makes him a really strong target at just $6,900 for today’s matchup vs. the Blazers.
Value
The Hornets could be an interesting team to target at the power forward position on today’s slate. Marvin Williams has been a rock-steady producer for much of the season but has seen a solid reduction in playing time recently.
Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Charlotte Hornets forward Marvin Williams (2).
That said, he’s seen a price decrease of -$1,200 over the past month on FanDuel, and his current $4,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 70%. He’s in a great spot vs. the Lakers, so he doesn’t need much playing time to be a value at his current salary.
You could also take a look at Frank Kaminsky, who is coming off 30.0 FanDuel points in 32 minutes in his last contest. He’s slightly more expensive than Williams but has averaged a superior 0.92 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
How cheap is too cheap for Draymond Green? He’s been priced down to $5,800 on DraftKings for today’s matchup vs. the Timberwolves, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%, but has scored at least 30.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He’s averaged a usage rate of 19.7% over those contests, which is encouraging for his fantasy prospects moving forward.
Domantas Sabonis has posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.31 over his past 10 games on DraftKings thanks to an average of 1.26 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He has big upside vs. the Celtics at just $6,200.
Center
Stud
Rudy Gobert hasn’t been playing a ton of minutes recently, logging 31.5 or less in each of his past six games. That said, he’s still managed to score at least 44.5 DraftKings points in each of his past three contests, and he’s in a wonderful spot today vs. the Wizards.
They rank just 29th in team rebound rate this season, giving Gobert an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.71. He’s one of the best pure values of the day on DraftKings, where his $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Enes Kanter figures to be the biggest beneficiary of the injury to Nurkic. He’s currently projected for 27.5 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 1.13 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s priced at just $5,900 in an elite matchup vs. the Hawks, which makes him a very tough fade.
Fast Break
Nikola Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns are tied for the lead at the center position with 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings. Both players are also strong values on DraftKings — each owns a Bargain Rating of 95% — and both own strong matchups as well. They’re definitely in play for GPPs.
Willy Hernangomez has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games and remains extremely affordable at just $3,600 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need much playing time to do some damage vs. the Lakers.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: 76ers Blazers G Damian Lillard (0)
Photo Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports
