The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Pace and scoring has been way up to start the season, but some things never change: The Warriors lead all teams with an implied team total of 120.5 points. Steph Curry has been good to start the season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.99 on FanDuel, yet his salary has still decreased by $900 on FanDuel from his last contest. It results in a Bargain Rating of 95% in our Models, and he leads all players with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Value
Kris Dunn returned from his personal absence in the Bulls’ last game, only to suffer an MCL sprain. He’s expected to miss four to six weeks, which means Cameron Payne will likely return to the starting lineup. He hasn’t exactly thrived in that role to start the season, averaging just 0.68 FanDuel points per minute, but there are reasons to believe he can improve: He averaged 0.91 FanDuel points per minute last season.
Payne is priced at just $3,700 on FanDuel for today’s matchup vs. the Hornets, and the total for that game has already increased by 2.5 points since opening. He looks like one of the best values at the PG position.
Fast Break
Eric Bledsoe has been fantastic over his past two games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +11.96 on DraftKings. He has a strong matchup vs. the Philadelphia 76ers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.02, and his $6,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
De’Angelo Russell has one of the best matchups of the day against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency to begin the season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.25 on DraftKings. He’s a strong value at $6,300 on DraftKings.
Kemba Walker has seen a $500 decrease on FanDuel for today’s matchup vs. the Chicago Bulls, despite putting up an average Plus/Minus of +6.23 to begin the season. He appears poised for the best season of his career, with a usage rate of 34.7% through his first four games.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Chris Paul will finish his suspension today, which means that James Harden will have another opportunity to run the show for the Houston Rockets. He dominated in his first game without Paul this season, playing roughly 40 minutes and scoring 63.0 DraftKings points.
His production without Paul isn’t exactly surprising: He saw significant bumps to his usage and assist rates and averaged 1.58 DraftKings points per minute with Paul off the court last season.
That said, he has a brutal matchup today vs. the Utah Jazz. They ranked second in defensive efficiency last season and played at one of the slowest paces in the league, and Harden posted a positive Plus/Minus in just one of four matchups vs. the Jazz last season (per the Trends tool).
But he did smash against the Jazz in one matchup with Paul out of the lineup, scoring more than 80 DraftKings points. He could see reduced ownership because of the matchup, which makes him an appealing option on today’s slate.
Value
The Mavericks remain shorthanded for today’s contest vs. the Atlanta Hawks, with both Harrison Barnes and Devin Harris already ruled out. Wesley Matthews should see extended playing time in their absence. He has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute to begin the season.
Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dallas Mavericks guard Wesley Matthews (23).
The Hawks have played at the fastest pace in the league to begin the season, and the Mavs implied team total of 117.75 ranks third on the slate.
Fast Break
Tom Thibodeau stated that Jimmy Butler would be limited to “seven- or eight-minute stretches” when he returned to the lineup in his last game, but that didn’t stop him from racking up 36.5 minutes. He has a difficult matchup today vs. the Toronto Raptors (Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.49), but he’s just way too cheap at $8,100 on DraftKings.
Devin Booker looks like one of the best values of the day on FanDuel, where his $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s averaged 1.13 FanDuel points per minute to begin the season and has one of the best matchups of the day against the Los Angeles Lakers. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.46; the Suns are implied for 116.0 points.
Small Forward
Studs
There are a lot of strong options worth paying up for today, so it’s possible that Giannis Antetokounmpo could be a bit overlooked. That said, he’s been the best fantasy player not named Anthony Davis to begin the season, averaging a ridiculous 1.70 DraftKings points per minute.
What’s really scary is that he’s done that despite not racking up his typical defensive statistics: His average of 0.7 steals and 1.4 blocks per 36 minutes would both rank among the worst of his career. If he can keep up his production on offense and increase his production on defense, he could put up some ridiculous fantasy numbers.
Giannis is in an interesting spot today vs. the Philadelphia 76ers. They ranked third in defensive efficiency last season, but they’ve seen some regression in that department to begin 2018-19.
Ben Simmons (back) is also questionable, and he graded out as one of their best perimeter defenders last season. The 76ers still have Robert Covington — who is one of the best defenders on the planet — but Giannis was able to exceed 60 DraftKings points in two of three matchups vs. the 76ers last season. He’s an elite pivot in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) for those looking to fade Harden.
LeBron James is also available at the position, and he put together his best performance as a Laker his last time out. It was an overtime game — which obviously inflated his numbers a bit — but LeBron posted his highest usage rate with both Brandon Ingram and Rajon Rondo sidelined with a suspension.
Credit: Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23).
Both of those players will miss today’s contest, as well, and the Lakers’ implied team total of 119.5 ranks second on the slate.
Value
The Grizzlies aren’t normally a team to consider in daily fantasy basketball, but they have one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Sacramento Kings. They’ve gone from playing at one of the slowest paces last year to one of the fastest this season, but they remain one of the worst teams in terms of defensive efficiency.
Kyle Anderson hasn’t played nearly as much as expected after coming over from San Antonio in the offseason, but his salary has dropped by a ridiculous $3,100 on FanDuel since the start of the season. He averaged 0.91 FanDuel points per minute last season, so he’s worth some consideration because of the elite matchup.
Fast Break
Cedi Osman has assumed a much larger role for the Cavs this season, playing at least 33 minutes in each of their first three games. He’s been really good in that playing time, averaging 0.98 DraftKings points per minute, and his $5,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Kawhi Leonard is another player who seems underpriced on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $8,700 and has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute to begin the season. He’s projected for 35.5 minutes on today’s slate, and the Raptors are implied for 117.5 points vs. the Timberwolves.
Power Forward
Stud
Kevin Love has seen a nice boost in value with LeBron out of town, averaging 1.20 points per minute on FanDuel. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.18 to begin the season on FanDuel, and the best may still be yet to come. He’s shot a paltry 30.4% from the field and 26.3% from 3-point range, both of which represent massive decreases when compared to his career averages. When he starts seeing some regression in those departments, he’s going to be a fantasy monster.
That could start today vs. the Brooklyn Nets. Love has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.80 on FanDuel, where his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Value
Kyle Kuzma isn’t exactly a “value” at $7,200 on FanDuel and $6,900 on DraftKings, but he’s undoubtedly one of the top options of the day. He moved into the starting lineup and played 45 minutes in his last game, resulting in 52.5 DraftKings points. He averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute last season and should see big minutes again today.
Serge Ibaka has posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of his first four games this season, yet his salary has actually decreased by $100 over that time frame. He’s in arguably his best spot of the season against the Timberwolves, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +10.29.
Center
Stud
There are some big names available at the center position today — Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns, DeAndre Jordan — but Enes Kanter might be the most appealing option. He’s always been elite on a per-minute basis, averaging 1.20 FanDuel points per minute last season, but he’s seen a massive bump in playing time for the Knicks this season. He leads all centers with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel and represents a nice discount compared to the highest-priced options on the slate.
Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Knicks center Enes Kanter (00).
Value
JaVale McGee is another excellent per-minute producer who has seen a boost in playing time this season. He’s averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute through his first three games and has an elite matchup today vs. the Phoenix Suns. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.24 on DraftKings, where his $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Fast Break
Willie Cauley-Stein and Clint Capela both look like appealing buy-low options on DraftKings. Both have seen their price decrease over their past few games, giving them Bargain Ratings of 99%. Capela has the better matchup and more consistent playing time, but Cauley-Stein has been the superior producer on a per-minute basis.
DeAndre Ayton looks to be in store for a monster rookie season. He’s posted a Plus/Minus of at least +11.23 on FanDuel in both games he’s seen at least 31 minutes of playing time, and his salary remains reasonable at $7,700 on FanDuel.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Rockets SG James Harden
Photo credit: Marcio Jose Sanchez- USA Today Sports
