The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Wednesday’s slate features 22 of the 30 teams, so there are predictably a lot of high-priced options to choose from. The three highest-priced options on DraftKings are all priced within $400 of each other: John Wall ($9,100), Damian Lillard ($8,800) and Ben Simmons ($8,700).
It’s hard not to like Simmons. He’s averaging more fantasy points per minute than Wall and Lillard this season, and his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.04 against the Magic ranks first as well. That said, Jimmy Butler will be making his debut in Philadelphia, and it’s unknown how his presence will affect Simmons’ role in the offense. It’s possible Simmons could cede some ball-handling responsibilities, and he doesn’t offer much value in terms of floor spacing and perimeter shooting. For that reason, Simmons might be better suited for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) than cash games.
Value
The Nets suffered a massive loss on Monday, with Caris LeVert going down with a gruesome ankle injury. It ultimately wasn’t as bad as it initially seemed, but he’s still expected to be sidelined for the foreseeable future. He led the team in minutes and points per game this season, so it opens up a lot of opportunities for the rest of the roster.
Spencer Dinwiddie is one of the top candidates to absorb some of LeVert’s production. Dinwiddie has seen a team-high usage bump of +5.1% with LeVert off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.05 DraftKings points per minute. Dinwiddie’s $4,900 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, making him one of the best pure values.
Fast Break
The Timberwolves’ rotation is loaded with questions prior to Wednesday night’s showdown against the Pelicans. That includes Jeff Teague, who is currently questionable with a knee injury. That said, his injury didn’t appear to limit him much on Monday against the Nets, scoring 47.25 DraftKings points in 34.5 minutes of playing time. He also led the Timberwolves in usage in that contest, which could continue with Butler out of the picture.
Mike Conley has been fantastic this season, owning a career-high usage rate of 27.6% and averaging 1.05 fantasy points per minute. He remains underpriced on DraftKings, where his $6,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Shooting Guard
Studs
DeMar DeRozan has had a smooth transition to San Antonio this season, averaging a career-best 6.6 assists and 6.4 rebounds per game. He’s always been an elite scorer, but his boost in the peripheral categories has had a big impact on his fantasy production: He’s currently averaging almost seven additional fantasy points per game than he did last season.
He has one of the best matchups of the day against the Suns, who rank just 29th in defensive efficiency. DeRozan torched them for 39.3 FanDuel points in only 28 minutes in their first meeting this season, so he has big upside if he sees more minutes in a competitive contest. He’s underpriced on FanDuel at $8,900 with a Bargain Rating of 81%.
On DraftKings, it’s hard to look past what Zach LaVine has done recently. He’s playing all the minutes he can handle — he’s averaged 40 minutes per game over his past seven contests — and his current projection of 38.5 minutes is the top mark at the position in our NBA Models. He’s also tied for the lead with 12 Pro Trends, and SGs with a comparable mark and minute projection have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.47 on DraftKings. LaVine has been priced down to $7,900 in anticipation of a difficult matchup against the Celtics, giving him a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Value
J.R. Smith is back in the Cavs’ rotation in a big way and has seen at least 32 minutes in two of their past three games. He’s currently projected for 33.5 minutes in a great matchup against the Wizards as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.21 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute this season, which makes him a nice value at $4,000.
Fast Break
CJ McCollum has a great matchup against the Lakers, who have played at the third-fastest pace in the league this season. He hasn’t been great this season, posting a positive Plus/Minus in just 31% of his games, but that’s creating a nice buy-low opportunity on FanDuel: His $6,400 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Bradley Beal
Bradley Beal has been a consistent source of value on DraftKings, posting a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games. He remains very affordable at $7,500 with a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he has a great matchup against the defensively-challenged Cavaliers.
Small Forward
Studs
Wednesday’s slate features three of the preeminent SFs in the NBA right now: Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, and Paul George.
Giannis has been a monster to start the season, averaging 1.64 DraftKings points per minute, and his play is a big reason why the Bucks own a 10-3 record. That said, he’s in a brutal spot against the Grizzlies, who rank third in defensive efficiency and have played at the slowest pace in the league by a considerable margin. He has one of the highest ceilings in daily fantasy basketball, but there’s more downside than usual in Wednesday’s matchup.
LeBron could actually be a slightly contrarian target given the sheer volume of studs to choose from: He’s only projected for 5-8% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s struggled in two previous meetings against the Blazers this season, averaging just 46.95 FanDuel points, which is not surprising considering they rank fifth in defensive efficiency. Al-Farouq Aminu represents a big challenge for LeBron after ranking sixth in defensive efficiency last season.
George might actually be the best value of the trio. He’s been excellent with Russell Westbrook out of the lineup this season, averaging 44.25 DraftKings points per game. George has been even better recently, scoring at least 45.6 DraftKings points in each of his past three games. He represents a slight savings when compared to the top options at the position, but his similar floor and median projections make him a nice target for cash games.
Value
T.J. Warren has played huge minutes for the Suns recently and cracked the 40-minute mark in two of his past three games. He’s averaged 0.98 fantasy points per minute, so he appears to be one of the better values of the day at $5,800 on DraftKings. That said, his matchup against the Spurs isn’t ideal, and the Suns’ implied team total of 103.5 is the fifth-lowest mark on the slate.
Fast Break
I wish I loved anything as much as the Blazers’ coaching staff loves Evan Turner. Virtually every metric suggests they’re a worse team when he’s on the floor, but he’s still playing close to 30 minutes most nights. That makes him a productive fantasy asset given his average of 0.91 FanDuel points per minute.
Gordon Hayward has not looked like his old self after coming back from a gruesome leg injury, shooting 39.1% from the field and 31.9% from 3-point range. Still, he’s coming off a season-high 31 minutes in his last contest and has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute. He could be a steal at $5,100 if he sees some positive regression in his shooting numbers.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis appears to be fully over his elbow injury and has averaged 64.33 DraftKings points over his past three games. Wednesday’s game against the Timberwolves figures to be one of the best of the slate from a fantasy perspective. Both teams rank in the top five in pace, and the total of 236 points is the highest mark on the slate by more than 10 points. His price has come down quite a bit across the industry, which makes him an excellent target on Wednesday’s slate.
Value
Jerami Grant has been one of the best values in daily fantasy basketball recently, posting a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over his past 13 games. He’s seeing more minutes than he did early in the season but has still managed a strong average of 0.80 DraftKings points per minute. He’s in an elite spot against the Knicks as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.43 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Larry Nance Jr. is tremendously appealing on DraftKings, where his $5,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute and is coming off a season-high 35 minutes in his most recent contest. He has value in all formats.
Credit: John Glaser-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LaMarcus Aldridge
LaMarcus Aldridge is one of the better high-priced values on FanDuel, owning a Bargain Rating of 68%. He’s in a great spot against the Suns as evidenced by an opponent Plus/minus of +4.16. He crushed them for 24 points in just 23.5 minutes of playing time in their last meeting.
Center
Studs
Hassan Whiteside struggled with foul trouble against Joel Embiid on Monday, but foul trouble has been the only thing that’s stopped Whiteside recently. He’s averaged an elite 1.47 FanDuel points per minute, thanks in part to a league-leading 3.3 blocks per game. He’ll have a much easier matchup against the Nets, who have the potential to be without Jarrett Allen on Wednesday.
Both Karl-Anthony Towns and Andre Drummond have crushed the Nets for 20-20 games recently, and Whiteside has the potential to join that list.
Speaking of Towns, its hard not to like him at $9,500 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he’s averaged 49.44 fantasy points per game with Butler out of the lineup. Towns has commanded a usage rate of at least 26.2% in both of his past two contests and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.48 against the fast-paced Pelicans.
Value
JaVale McGee isn’t seeing the same amount of playing time with Tyson Chandler now in the mix at center, but that’s caused McGee’s salary to drop to much more reasonable levels across the industry. He’s still averaging an elite 1.32 FanDuel points per minute and has averaged 1.63 FanDuel points per minute in two previous matchups against the Blazers.
Fast Break
Nikola Vucevic is one of the best values at the position on FanDuel, where his $8,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.76 against the 76ers, so he can potentially do some damage if he stays out of foul trouble.
Rudy Gobert and DeAndre Jordan will square off for the third time this season, and both players have returned value in each of their past two meetings. Gobert has the higher projections, but Jordan is the better value at $6,500 on DraftKings.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Paul George
Photo credit: Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports
