The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
C.J. McCollum is expected to miss an extended period of time for the Portland Trail Blazers, which makes Damian Lillard tough to ignore in DFS. He’s posted a usage rate of 38.9% with McCollum off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.54 DraftKings points per minute.
He also owns a strong matchup vs. the Dallas Mavericks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.79. He’s way too cheap at $8,800 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%. He should be a staple of cash-game lineups and has plenty of upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) as well.
Value
Fred VanVleet has not been limited since returning to the lineup two games ago, logging at least 28.5 minutes in both contests. He was quite productive in both and is coming off 39.5 DraftKings points vs. the Knicks in his last outing.
He should play a big role for the Raptors tonight with Kyle Lowry ruled out with an ankle injury. VanVleet has averaged 27.06 DraftKings points and 32.2 minutes in 12 games without Lowry this season, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +3.9 on DraftKings. He’s priced at a discount at just $4,700.
Fast Break
Eric Bledsoe was one of the biggest beneficiaries of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s absence in his last game, scoring 41.0 DraftKings points vs. the Los Angeles Lakers. He’s dominated with Giannis off the court all season, averaging 1.39 DraftKings points per minute, which would make him a strong target if Giannis is unable to suit up tonight vs. the Cavaliers (currently questionable). The Cavs have been a dumpster fire defensively all season, and the Bucks’ implied team total of 118.25 ranks first on the slate.
The Pelicans will be extremely shorthanded for tonight’s matchup vs. the Orlando Magic. Jrue Holiday and E’Twaun Moore remain out with injuries, while Anthony Davis has been ruled out for personal reasons.
That leaves Elfrid Payton as one of the only viable NBA players on the roster. He’s been fantastic recently, scoring at least 51.0 DraftKings points in five straight games, and he’s averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute with Davis and Holiday off the court since the All-Star break. He’s a steal at $8,000 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal is coming off just 19.5 DraftKings points vs. the Jazz in his last outing but has been one of the most consistent producers in fantasy since the injury to John Wall. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.07 over his past 10 games on DraftKings and a Consistency Rating of 92% over the past month. He has an unparalleled workload, and his current projection of 39.5 minutes is the top mark in our NBA Models.
He’s also in a wonderful spot vs. the Chicago Bulls. They rank 25th in defensive efficiency, and the Wizards’ implied team total of 116.25 ranks third on the slate. Beal is underpriced on DraftKings, where his $9,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Value
The Heat will be without both Justise Winslow and Rodney McGruder on today’s slate, which should give Dwyane Wade a boost in value. Wade has led the team with a usage rate of 27.4% with both players off the court since the All-Star break, resulting in an average of 0.99 DraftKings points per minute. He’s currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models, which would make him a strong value at just $4,800.
Fast Break
Justin Holiday is dirt cheap at just $3,700 on FanDuel and should see a healthy amount of playing time tonight with C.J. Miles and Avery Bradley out of the lineup. He’s currently projected for 32 minutes, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.73 (per the Trends tool).
Tonight is an excellent opportunity to roster James Harden at reduced ownership. He has an unappealing matchup vs. the Grizzlies and has largely disappointed with the team at full strength, but he has scored at least 71.5 FanDuel points in each of his past two matchups vs. Memphis. Both of those games came with Chris Paul out of the lineup, but Harden has proven that he can succeed in this matchup.
Small Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard stands out at the SF position tonight given the absence of Lowry. He’s averaged 45.29 DraftKings points in 14 games without Lowry this season, which makes him a steal at just $8,400 on DraftKings. He’s seen a price decrease of $1,000 over the past month, and his current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Leonard is also in a decent spot vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder. They’ve played at the third-fastest pace this season, giving Leonard an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.50 on DraftKings. He has posted a Consistency Rating of 100% over the past month, making him one of the safest plays on today’s slate.
Value
Danuel House has played a large role for the Rockets since returning from an injury three games ago, logging at least 28.3 minutes in each contest. He’s been productive from a fantasy perspective over that time frame, averaging 0.74 FanDuel points per minute. He’s underpriced at just $3,900, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 85%.
Fast Break
SF looks like a nice position to save some money on today’s slate. Pat Connaughton should see a boost in playing time regardless of Antetokounmpo’s status given all the other injuries on the roster. Nikola Mirotic, George Hill, Malcolm Brogdon, Sterling Brown, Pau Gasol and Donte DiVincenzo have all been ruled out with various injuries, leaving them shorthanded vs. the Magic. Connaughton has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can do some damage with an increased role. He’s a strong option at $3,600 on DraftKings.
Shaq Harrison is another strong value option, although the fact that he’s eligible only at PG on FanDuel does decrease his appeal. He entered the starting lineup in place of Otto Porter in the Bulls’ last game and scored 22.1 FanDuel points in just under 32.5 minutes. Porter has been ruled out once again for tonight’s contest vs. the Pelicans, so Harrison should see an increased role in an excellent matchup.
Power Forward
Stud
Julius Randle is in a potential smash spot for the shorthanded Pelicans. He’s posted an elite 1.41 DraftKings points per minute with both Holiday and Davis off the court since the All-Star break and has averaged 54.88 DraftKings points in two games without both players. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $8,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Value
The Bucks feature an interesting pair of punt plays at the PF position vs. the Cavaliers. Ersan Ilyasova is listed as probable after missing yesterday’s contest with an illness, and he could potentially replace Nikola Mirotic in their starting lineup. He’s averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and is priced at the absolute minimum.
D.J. Wilson is also priced at the minimum on FanDuel, and he would become an interesting option if Ilyasova is unable to suit up. He hasn’t been nearly as effective as Ilyasova on a per-minute basis, but he would likely be forced into a substantial role given the Bucks’ current injury situation.
Fast Break
Can I interest you in a Bobby Portis #RevengeGame? He’s in a wonderful spot vs. the Bulls, evidenced by a position-best Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.75 on FanDuel. He’s also been priced down to just $5,600, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 88%.
Cheick Diallo is another member of the Pelicans who should benefit from the absence of Davis today vs. the Magic. He’s averaged a stout 1.22 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +11.1 in four games without Davis since the All-Star break. He’s an elite value at just $3,800 on DraftKings.
Center
Stud
Nikola Vucevic has been an excellent source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.78 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s coming off 63.0 DraftKings points in his last contest and is in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Pelicans. They’ve struggled defensively all season, and the Magic’s implied team total of 116.5 ranks second on the slate. They’ve also struggled against centers in particular, giving Vucevic an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.42. Vucevic is a particularly strong target on DraftKings, where his $9,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
This doesn’t seem like a slate where you want to pay down too much at center, but Al Horford deserves some attention in the mid range. He’s taking on the Philadelphia 76ers, who have been one of his favorite matchups over the past two seasons. He’s averaged 35.16 FanDuel points per game in his last 11 matchups vs. Philly, and that kind of production would make him an excellent value at his current salary across the industry.
Fast Break
Jusuf Nurkic is another member of the Blazers who should see a bump in value with McCollum out of the lineup. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +10.0% with McCollum off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.35 DraftKings points per minute. He’s played at least 30.5 minutes in each of his past two contests, and his $7,100 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
It’s hard to ignore Brook Lopez at his current salary after he dropped 58.25 DraftKings points on the Lakers last night. He doesn’t have quite as much upside tonight if Giannis ultimately plays, but he should still see a boost in minutes given the Bucks’ current injury situation. He’s averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, making him a strong target at just $5,400.
News Updates
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Pictured: New Orleans Pelicans PG Elfrid Payton (4)
Photo Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
