The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook has had an interesting season. He’s seen a slight reduction in his usage and assist rates but is still averaging an elite 1.55 FanDuel points per minute. That’s the top mark at the PG position by a considerable margin and the third-highest mark on Wednesday’s slate, but Westbrook has still struggled to an average Plus/Minus of -3.63 through his first 14 games.
His biggest problem has actually been that the Thunder haven’t played in many competitive games. He’s seen 31 or fewer minutes in five contests, which accounts for more than 33% of his total game log. Assuming Wednesday’s game against the Nets stays competitive — the Thunder are 6.5-point favorites in Brooklyn as of writing (see live odds here) — Westbrook has massive upside at his current reduced salary. He’s seen a price decrease of $1,500 since the beginning of the season on FanDuel, where he leads all PGs with 14 Pro Trends. This could be a nice time to buy low on him.
Value
George Hill has only played in two games for the Cavs after missing an extended period of time with an injury, but he doesn’t appear to be limited. He played more than 35 minutes in their last contest, which was the highest mark on the team, and he’s averaged a respectable 0.76 DraftKings points per minute this season. He looks like a strong value across the industry.
Fast Break
Kyle Lowry has seen a big reduction in fantasy points over the past month, which is a big reason why he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just two of his past 10 games on DraftKings. That said, his salary has decreased by $1,200 over that span, and he has one of the best matchups of the day against the 76ers. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.40, and the Raptors’ implied team total of 117.5 ranks first on the slate.
Gary Harris will miss Wednesday’s contest, which increases the appeal of Jamal Murray. Murray has averaged a team-high 37 minutes per game with Harris out of the lineup this season and has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute with both Harris and Will Barton off the floor.
Trae Young is not playing a ton of minutes right now but could be an interesting option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) on DraftKings. He’s priced at $6,000 with a Bargain Rating of 98% and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.82 against the Wizards. He also posted a usage rate of 47.3% in his last outing, and that kind of volume gives him big upside.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Wizards are the top team to target on this slate. Not only do they lead all teams with an implied total of 119.5 points in an elite matchup against the Hawks, but the Wizards will also be without John Wall. That opens up a lot of opportunities for the rest of the roster, including Bradley Beal. Beal has seen a slight usage bump with Wall out of the lineup this season, resulting in an average of 1.11 FanDuel points per minute.
Beal is also projected for a position-high 38 minutes, which gives him one of the safest floors on the slate. He’s a slightly better value on FanDuel, where his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 68%.
Value
Alec Burks has slid into the Cavs’ rotation nicely, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first three games on FanDuel. He’s been a nice fantasy producer when given the opportunity, averaging 0.86 FanDuel points per minute this season, and is currently projected for 26.5 minutes in our NBA Models. Wednesday’s game against the Warriors could definitely get out of hand quickly, but his minutes seem pretty safe regardless of the outcome.
Fast Break
Kent Bazemore could be a nice buy-low option. His price has decreased by $1,500 over the past month on DraftKings, but he’s still averaged 0.97 fantasy points per minute over that span. His playing time has been on the decline recently, but he could see more minutes if Wednesday’s game stays competitive. The Wizards also struggle defensively, tied for 25th in defensive efficiency.
DeMar DeRozan is only $100 less than Beal on FanDuel, which could make him an overlooked option. That said, DeRozan’s $8,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%, and he has an excellent matchup against the Lakers. He absolutely torched them in their first two meetings this season, scoring at least 61.4 FanDuel points in each contest.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been a fantasy monster this season, averaging 1.67 DraftKings points per minute. He’s thrived under new head coach Mike Budenholzer, who has surrounded Giannis with shooters and forced defenses to play him one-on-one or risk giving up an open 3-pointer. The result has been a league-best average of 121.4 points per game, which has propelled them to the second-best record in the Eastern Conference.
Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Giannis has a mediocre matchup against the Pistons, who rank 10th in defensive efficiency and tied for 14th in pace. That said, he seems way underpriced on DraftKings at just $11,600, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%. He could definitely see reduced ownership as well given the sheer volume of superstars available on the slate.
It took almost 20 years, but it seems that the Spurs’ era is coming to end. They currently rank 29th in defensive efficiency, which is better than only the hapless Suns this season. The Jazz lit the Spurs up for 139 points on Tuesday — the Jazz! — and LeBron James gets the pleasure of facing the Spurs on the second leg of a back-to-back.
LeBron has scored at least 59.25 DraftKings points in his two previous matchups with the Spurs this season, and he’s projected for just 5-8% ownership on DraftKings. He’s the ultimate pivot for GPPs.
Value
Both Jeff Green and Kelly Oubre could be interesting targets with Wall out of the lineup. Green is cheaper across the industry, but Oubre has averaged more fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s also seen a usage bump of +5.6% with Wall off the floor this season and played 31.5 minutes in their last game. Oubre has the higher ceiling of the two.
Fast Break
Targeting the Spurs in a game that starts at 10:30 p.m. ET always carries risk — especially when they’re on the second leg of a back-to-back — but Rudy Gay looks like a nice value on FanDuel. He’s priced at $5,500 and has averaged 0.99 FanDuel points per minute this season. The fact that he only played 18.5 minutes in Tuesday’s blowout loss also decreases the likelihood that he’ll rest on Wednesday’s slate.
Paul George leads all players on this slate with 15 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 75%. Historically, SFs with a comparable number of Pro Trends have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.50 (per the Trends tool).
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis has been arguably the fantasy MVP this season, and he’s taken his game to another level recently. He’s averaged 1.69 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.23 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He looks like one of the better values of the day on DraftKings, where his $11,500 salary comes with a Bargain rating of 99%.
Pictured: New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23), Photo Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
That said, he might not have the same ceiling as usual on this slate.
The Nikola Mirotic injury means that Julius Randle will likely draw another start, and Davis hasn’t been nearly as effective from a fantasy perspective when sharing the court with Randle this season. He sees a slight decrease in virtually all of his statistics across the board — usage rate, assist rate, rebound rate, etc. — and the offense plays slightly faster with Randle on the floor. The result is an average of just 1.36 DraftKings points per minute over 353 minutes of court time this season. He’s an interesting fade candidate.
Value
Serge Ibaka has seen his salary decrease by more than $1,000 on FanDuel over the past week, but there are reasons for optimism moving forward. He’s actually increased his playing time over that span, seeing at least 31 minutes in each of his past four games, and he’s averaged 1.11 FanDuel points per minute on the season. If he continues to play that much moving forward, he looks like an excellent value at $5,900.
Fast Break
Markieff Morris has seen the largest bump in fantasy production with Wall off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.06 FanDuel points per minute. He’s been an excellent value even with Wall in the lineup recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past seven games on FanDuel, which makes him a strong option against the Hawks.
Jerami Grant has failed to return value in each of his past two games, but that has more to do with reduced minutes in blowouts than poor play. He had posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his prior nine games on DraftKings, so he could provide some value if today’s game stays competitive.
Center
Studs
Joel Embiid is coming off back-to-back clunkers, but he has valid reasons for those performances: One was against the Grizzlies, who have been the best defensive team in the league this season, and the other was a blowout in which he saw just 22 minutes. His salary has decreased by $1,100 over the past month on DraftKings, which makes this an excellent opportunity to buy low on him.
Embiid is priced at $10,300 for this matchup against the Raptors, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.97 with a comparable salary this season. He leads the position with 14 Pro Trends and owns an excellent Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.96.
Nikola Jokic is a truly special player. He’s coming off the third game of his career with at least 15 assists, and no other center has had even one such game over the past 20 years.
He’s in an interesting spot against the Magic. It’s not a particularly great matchup — the Nuggets’ implied team total of 106.25 is tied for the fourth-lowest mark on the slate — but Jokic has massive upside with Harris out of the lineup. Jokic has seen a usage bump of +8.5% with Harris and Barton off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.59 DraftKings points per minute. Jokic is capable of putting up ridiculous numbers when he wants to, and he might not have a choice for the shorthanded Nuggets.
Value
It looks like a tough day to pay down at center, but one player who could be worth some consideration on DraftKings is Dewayne Dedmon. He’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season and is currently projected for 24.2 minutes on today’s slate. The Wizards have been one of the worst rebounding teams in the league without Dwight Howard, so he looks like a nice value at $3,900 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Julius Randle dominated in place of Mirotic in his last game, scoring 52.6 FanDuel points in 39 minutes. Randle has been excellent on a per-minute basis this season, averaging 1.28 FanDuel points per minute, so his production given the increase in playing time is not all that surprising.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Nikola Jokic
Photo credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
